September 23, 2016

A trio of Derby’s highlight one of the final big weekends for three-year-olds before the BC and the granddaddy of them all is the Grade II PA Derby, with a field of 13 signed on for a mammoth $1,000.000 purse. Won by horses like Broad Brush, Afleet and Summer Squall in its early editions, it took off in the 2000’s with Macho Uno and Harlan’s Holiday winning and in recent years, has been extremely popular with an increased purse and the likes of champion Will Take Charge, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern and impressive four-year-old Frosted gracing the winner’s circle the past three years.

At HRP, the PA Derby has had an incredible knack for getting the best of the best to PRX over the years and it all started with PRK winner Real Bull in 2005, when he defeated the likes of Cochise and Disco Force. Whats Up was just coming into his own when he proved best in 2009 and we all know what he became, while Five Fives finished off his four-race winning streak with a docile score by six-lengths in 2010 before his lackluster effort in the BC Classic. Cryptomagic pulled off the KYD-PA Derby double in 2012 and Port On The Horizon nearly pulled off the PA Derby-BC Classic double last year and this year, with have a quartet of $1,000.000 earners who are all looking to add to their bankroll and more importantly, cement their status at the top of a tough division.

1-Larry L Lavender (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

Since moving back to the dirt two starts ago, Larry L Lavender has come up with two straight wins including a nose decision in the Grade III Affirmed and in his first start for the new barn, moves right into one of the toughest fields of the year with an inside post with which to work. Distance should not be a problem and he seems to enjoy sitting nicely behind the leaders and quickening late, a tactic much better suited for the dirt but one that could find him lacking room in this bunched field.

Analysis-Needs to find a lane then prove he is good enough

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Ned Isakoff (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)

Ned Isakoff has never been more than two-lengths from victory in any of his 12 career starts and as the PRK winner, BEL third-place finisher and richest horse in the field, has to be considered one of the likely favourites to handle rivals he has dealt with all season long. A docile wire-to-wire win against older rivals at SAR sets him up perfectly for this event and his campaign has been carefully handled so as to have him ready for the Classic so look for a forwardly placed effort at this nine-furlong trip with the hopes that he can take the field all the way from the inside.

Analysis-Class and talent makes him the choice

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Great Monsoon Spirit (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Great Monsoon Spirit was also a wire-to-wire winner at SAR this season, much like his inside rival, but he only faced three-year-olds and was not as fast as others while earning a lower speed rating; all said, he might not be fast enough to compete with the best here. That has been his lone highlight in four seasonal starts and while he does come from a solid barn, the class alone might be his undoing as he tries to step up in his third start off the layoff.

Analysis-Winner last time but others are better
Fair Odds-20/1

4-Dog Got Wings (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Grimley)

After winning the Grade III Spiral back in April, Dog Got Wings took to the sky for both the KYD and the PRK but after failing to menace in either event, cut back to shorter events and has actually been solid at both BEL and SAR. He gets a nice post position and could be one of the early leaders but others will be gunning to the lead with him and he might be best to sit and wait, with a stalking trip allowing him to save some ground and energy.

Analysis-Could get into a duel if he goes early

Fair Odds-15/1

5-Red Leaf (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Yahudi Stables)

Red Leaf is the type of horse who always seems to be in the thick of things at the wire but never seems to get the job done and with only a single win in eight starts and so many close finishes, will be hard pressed to back with any confidence unless you are getting a huge price. Making his first start for the new barn off a $350.000 purchase, he has worked well at MTH in the interim but has still been off for almost two months and with fitness in question, will have to handle the added inside speed and make a move good enough to pass some tired horses late.

Analysis-New owners are hoping for a breakthrough

Fair Odds-15/1

6-The Rook (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Since moving to the NY circuit earlier this year, The Rook has been a solid enough performer at various distances and off two big wins at SAR, ships south to PRX like so many others in search of a much bigger efforts at this Grade II level. His score in the Shipman was excellent and came with a top-notch speed rating so there are things to like about this colt if you want a horse from a middle post who can sit a nice trip around the first turn and hold his own at the distance.

Analysis-Ships down from SAR and has room to improve

Fair Odds-10/1

7-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Edwin Drood is one of the most intriguing horses at HRP right now since he qualified for the KYD, didn’t race, then came back to score two huge Grade II wins before a close fourth in the Travers after racing right into contention turning for home. The move back to nine-furlongs will make his job much easier and you know he will be cranked up for this race if he can sit back and make a single run; given his current form, he ranks the second choice behind the PRK winner, with every chance to make this race his own by Saturday afternoon.

Analysis-Clearly talented and will love the shorter distance

Fair Odds-4/1

8-Blue Guy (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Grimley)

A winner of the TAM Derby in March, Blue Guy has been unable to hit the board in five subsequent starts and what is more unsettling is the fact that he has not really been close at this level, making him a distinct longshot in a field loaded with horses on the improve. He tried the turf and faltered late at 238-1 then showed nothing from a wide post in the Travers and now, is being asked to go with the same group off workouts that are not even; not the best prospects and ones that will increase his chances of winning.

Analysis-Not competitive with this level in recent starts

Fair Odds-30/1

9-Cafe Nativo (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Frozen Tundra)

Closing for third in the Easy Goer at BEL showed that Cafe Nativo has enough ability to go with better horses than the N2X company he faced at LAD and with that confidence boosting victory at DMR, could be a surprise to hit the board. Speed ratings are solid and he will be closing from off the pace and with a returning jockey in the saddle, will have all the tools he needs to make another good account of himself.

Analysis-Could be your longshot play to complete the exotics

Fair Odds-8/1

10-Black Mojo (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)

A top three finisher in his first six starts this year including a win in the Grade II Peter Pan and a runner-up finish in the BEL, Black Mojo was made the favourite in the Travers after just missing in the Haskell but could only manage a modest seventh and will hope to rebound and earn some of his $900.000 price back. His speed ratings have stalled and never reached the triple-digits and with a wide draw, he will have all the opportunity to close into the pace at a distance that might be more suited to his abilities right now.

Analysis-Hoping to rebound and make it back to the top of his division

Fair Odds-6/1

11-Overspender (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

With a huge win in the Winn at CD back in June, Overspender looked to be on his way to the big times in the three-year-old division but he was rerouted to the Grade I Forego at SAR going short and just missed behind his stablemate in a huge effort. He now stretches back out to a route of ground and moved back in against his own age, with the knowledge that he can close into the pace and still handle the extended distance.

Analysis-Earns his keep going short but now needs to do that going long
Fair Odds-10/1

12-The Perfect Day (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-John Henry)

The Perfect Day has the set-up for the KYD after being gelded with a win in the CA Cup Derby and the San Felipe, coupled with a mammoth second in the SA Derby to send him to CD with huge expectations. However, the TC trail was not kind to him and while he has been close since in increasing difficult stakes competition, he has yet to win since March and will be a hard prospect to back unless he can use his outside post to close into what could be a quick pace from the inside.

Analysis-Has been closing well but needs the ideal trip to win
Fair Odds-10/1

13-Atomic Twister (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Another PA Derby entrant who has found the best of this division a little tough, Atomic Twister closed well to finish a game second in the PRK and was good in the Haskell when fourth but did not handle the long stretch at SAR well when behind others in the Travers and like many, will be hoping to return to his best. A new jockey and a decent work in preparation might lead to an improved effort but he has gotten ideal trips in his last few without hitting the top and now, will have to negotiate an outside post that might leave him wide around the turn and with a lot to do.

Analysis-Has been good but just not good enough at this level

Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

With the highest earnings and a TC win in the PRK under his best, Ned Isakoff is the interim leader of the Three-Year-Old Colt division right now and will try to cement his status as the favourite in the Grade II PA Derby, with a dozen challengers waiting to knock him off. A confidence boosting win at SAR sets him up nicely to win right back over Edwin Drood, fourth in the Travers but with two huge Grade II wins before that, and Black Mojo, who has done little wrong all year but will have to overcome one of the wide draws if he hopes to close into the early fractions.

Prediction

Win-Ned Isakoff (3/1)

Place-Edwin Drood (4/1)

Show-Black Mojo (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES