SAR Oaks – Grade II
SAR Race #6 1 3/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Let Me Explain Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122 —

I overheard Mb Stables in the winner’s circle after this one’s last win say this was one of the best he has ever owned. Well, if that is the case then this amazing filly only has to show up to win this and her presence in the race may be the reason she has only five rivals today. The winner of six from seven on the turf the only thing that has beaten her on the surface is the colts and an off track, there are no colts today so the only thing that may stop her is if the rains come. Even the rain would struggle to slow her down enough if she shows the type of form that saw her cruise home in the BEL Oaks last time after taking the grade one Acorn on a surface she isn’t comfortable on. I guess it is my job to try and pick a winner so this is the easiest pick of the day, but it is also my job to try and give a balanced view of the opposition so here goes the other five runners, and I will try and find one that may get near her.

2 Right As Rain Alydar Stables Bridgmohan S X 122 —

This is a consistent filly who chased home Let Me Explain in the BEL Oaks last time, so she is a great place to start as we try and find one to beat the favorite. She chased in vain in the BEL Oaks but was getting a bit closer at the end and that will give the owner some hope of turning things around today. I guess if the same tactics are applied the same result may well occur so there are two options to try and change the result today. Firstly, putting some pressure on Let Me Explain for the lead, easier said than done, but that may be a tactic to be considered. The other is to hope something else take her on in the lead and take her back for a later challenge. Either way she deserves to be given a chance on a surface she looked to improve on in the BEL Oaks.

3 Superface Party Mb Stables Gutierrez Mario 122 —

Tactically this filly is another on pace runner, but I am pretty sure Mb Stables won’t want the two stable mates taking each other on for the lead so there are sure to be some tactics involved in this race. She was pretty impressive in the Lake George last time and if her stable mate was not in the field, she could well be a winning chance herself so either she leads and Let Me Explain stalks or the other way round which could help out if one of the other runners makes a run for the front. Tactics aside this is a nice filly in her own right and maybe if the rains come, she could find herself the sole representative of the stable. The trip is a bit of an unknown but the winner of four has certainly proved herself around the mile.

4 Turquoise Tide D J C Racing Stables Lopez P 122 —

A nine-length last in the BEL Oaks, I cannot see a quick fix to improve her chances against the top two from that race, so it is hard to see her anywhere but third or fourth. She was strong in the Lyphard before that so has a chance of some minor money.

5 The Desire Sheffler Stables Gallardo A A 122 —

On the face of it there doesn’t look much here to bother Let Me Explain but looking a bit deeper, and there are some interesting thoughts around this filly. Her last work was strong indicating some improvement, and she ran well enough in the Regret on an off track to suggest this trip may suit as that was the furthest she had ever run, and she wasn’t stopping at the end. She may be looking at third here but if the rains come, she could be an upset chance.

6 Doubtful Gal TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 122 —

The interest in this one isn’t so much her winning chances but more the fact that with the outside gate and a few races where she tried to lead, she could be the one to challenge the Mb pair early on. I can’t see any way she can beat them, but she could certainly act as a spoiler. Having said that the races where she led through the first quarter were pretty slowly run so she may not have the gate speed to do much about the lead anyway. Being from the stable that has made me look a foolish tipster more than once though, I am always dubious about not giving them some sort of chance

SUMMARY

This race looks at the mercy of Mb Stables and in all likelihood his pair will dictate this race from the front, and we will once again be celebrating Let Me Explain after the race. You have to give Right As Rain her chance because she deserves it and could well be the one to give Let Me Explain most to do and that would be my top three, possibly the easiest top three on paper at least that I have ever written about.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES