BC Juvenile Fillies – Grade I [KYO]
DMR Race #9 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
The 15th running of this race see’s its usual mix of unbeaten two year olds, stakes winners and those who will be hoping for some rapid improvement from their precocious charges. Last years winner Snow Peak was unbeaten leading into this race and her form looked very similar to her one of her stables representatives here in Levi Broom. That may be the most significant historical clue to the outcome of this race but history can have a way of making foolish decisions so i wont be hanging my hat on that one fact. The one thing that is essential to look for in a two year old winner in the BC is early maturing, many including the last three winners of this race have been excellent two year olds but pretty ordinary three year olds. A look at their conformations doesnt help, nor does their sizes so the only real clues we have are work times and form so thats what i will be concentrating on as i look at the runners for this years Juvenile championship.
Lets start with the breeding and how the sires of todays runners look:
Levi Strauss, a son of Charley Farley sire of Levi Broom and Blue Jeans
A very average racing campaign has been eclipsed by a successful breeding career. Exactly As Planned managed a third for the sire in last years BC Turf but this will be the sires best hope of picking up a BC win. A total of $6632 has been won by his prodigy with 148 wins from 820 starts.
I’m Too Confident, a son of Hollywood Moon, sire of Beat To The Punch and Confidently In Love
A grade one winner on the track he was also 4th in the BEL as a three year old. Just two years of offspring his three year olds havent achieved too much but his two year old crop see’s two crackers in this race. He has 38 winners from 187 starts with $1539 in prize money
Sweeping, a son of Sweep The Dancer, sire of Sweeping Slew
A graded stakes winner who was sixth in the 2015 BC Sprint. Just one full season of two year olds he has had some nice offspring and has quickly notched up 26 winners from 96 starters for $876.59
Hannibal lector, a son of Mr Creepy, sire of Amen Sista
Just average on the course this is his first season as a stud. His runner here is his only shining star so far but he has managed 9 winners from 54 starts for $313.88 in prize money.
Fear The Feathers, a son of Cherokee Sunset, sire of Fear The Greatness
A grade three winner he was fourth in the Sword Dancer and the Hirsch before being retired to stud. With just a small sample in his first season he has achieved 12 winners from 74 starts with $326.84 in prize money.
Cherokee Sunset, a son of Chai Latte, sire of Free Sunset and Mexican
Placed at graded level as a racer he was consistent but only won 4 from 17. He has had a successful stud career so far with his daughter Tropics running third in the Bc Fillies and Mares Turf, Gallivant who raced on BC day and several other good winners. A good record of 201 wins from 1114 starters he is very nearly at the $10K for prize money.
Pinkman, a son of Pink Panther, sire of La Terrifiant
Pretty poor as a racehorse he has had more success as a sire with this filly and the gelding Along For The Ride in his first crop of youngsters. Just 102 starts so far for 15 wins and a very healthy $705.10 in prize money.
King Cobra, a son of El Gran Gayley , and sire of Nice Az
The KYD winner in 2015 he didnt have a long career after that but is one of the most accomplished racehorses amongst the stallions represented here. He has sired some stakes winning three year olds including Serious Cobra and Cobra Kai and has amassed 59 winners from 291 starts for $2300 in prize money.
Hardline, a son of Pink panther and sire of Line Drive and Bora Bora
The BC Dirt Mile winner this six year old won nearly $4K on the track and retired after a sixth in the 2016 BC Classic. A great first crop has seen 29 wins from 140 starts for $721 in prize money with Bora Bora and Line Drive being his best offspring so far.
Plumes, the sire of Plumage who has had a small book of runners so far with just 40 starts for seven wins. A son of Plucky Dogma he will look to enhance his career even further with his runner in this race.
Ok and onto the runners as the filly’s try and become the leaders of their group in this intriguing race.
1 Free Sunset, trained by Team 7 Illusions
Broke her maiden in the ungraded Lynbrook and has since proved she isnt far off the best of these. She ran well to be second in The Spinaway behind Levi Broom and was then behind that one again in The Frizette when fourth. Both those runs had merit especially as a wide draw meant she had to go up on the speed to get into those races and was a bit tired at the end. If she can sit just off the pace today she will see out the trip better but i cant see her beating Levi Broom in their third meeting so her best hope may be some place money. A great draw for todays race.
Last work 1.11 and 1 for the dirt six at SA
Best mile work: 1.36 and 4
2 Le Terrifant, trained by Jive Inc
Looked good in her first two races finishing second on debut and then winning her maiden at SAR. In her last start she earned the points for this race by finishing second in the Frizette beaten just a half length by Levi Broom. She was up on the speed that day and couldnt hold teh Mb Stables superstar but the track was pretty wet and we wont know until today which filly that suited and a half length could easily be turned around by a fast surface.
Last work: 1.24 and 1 over seven at SA
Best Mile work: 1.39 and 2 breezing
3 Levi Broom, trained by Mb Stables
Unbeaten in five starts, two consecutive grade ones, this one certainly has the look of last years filly of the year from the same stable and though this field is deep with talent it would take a brave man to bet against her. It is strange that a stable with plenty of top stallions and a breeding operation that out numbers just about every other player should have needed to buy a two year old at all but boy did they make the right choice here picking the daughter of levi Strauss for just $200 after a debut win. There are plenty of lower level maiden winners that get home by a half length on debut but something must have attracted Mb Stables to this filly because her very next race was the Astoria and since that she has never looked back. Her win in The Spinaway was pretty decisive but the test came in her last start The Frizette where the rains came and turned the track muddy. Class told at the end and she beat Le Terrifiant by a half length on a surface that wouldnt have suited her and that is the mark of a very good racehorse.
Her conformation suggests she should get this trip and it also has a look of a precocious type which is the type that generally wins these races. A superb draw will make her one of the shortest priced favourites of the weekend.
Last work: 34 and 3 breezing 3 at the track
Best mile work: 1.36 and 4
4 Nice Az, trained by Aer Stables
Took a couple of races to get into things but then slammed an FL maiden field by four lengths and hasnt looked back since. She went on to win the ungraded Gimma stakes and then made this field with a strong third in the Frizette only just behind Levi Broom and La Terrifiant. She kept on well enough that day on a muddy track but we wont know until this race which of the three will be better on a fast surface and which ran above themselves on that rain affected track.
Last work: 1.37 for the dirt mile at BEL
Best Mile work: 1.37
5 Mexican, trained by Team 7 Illusions
It’s unbelievable to think she is still a maiden but she comes into this race without a win but with a chance of breaking her duck in the biggest race of the year for two year old fillies. She ran a good second on debut and was straight away put in a black type race flying at the end of the KY Juvenile to finish third. She flew again to be second in The Debutante over an extra furlong just a length behind Beat To The punch and then finished fourth to the same horse in The Sorrento Stakes. She was a little disappointing in the DMR Debutante finishing fifth behind Confidently In Love but better again in her last start The Chandalier to be second once more to Beat To The Punch. She may be the best maiden in training but at the end of the day she has been beaten so many times by Beat To The Punch that i cant see anyway she can improve on that today. She will run well from a great draw but its hard to see her winning.
Last work: 1.38 over the mile at SA
Best mile work: 1.37 and 3
6 Bora Bora, trained by Smokey Stover
She has yet to be tested over this sort of trip but there doesnt look like there is any reason she wont see it out and with some good and consistent form to her name i am expecting a big run. A winner on debut at the free track she won her next start before heading to the Scuylerville where she ran great to be fourth to Levi Broom less than a length behind the winner. She then took on Plumage who she beat in that last start in the Adirondack but this time found her too good and had to settle for second. She gained some compensation by taking the ungraded Debutante next up but was surprisingly beaten in the Anoakia Stakes last time. She needs to improve to beat the Mb trio here but the trip might be the key and she is as tough as old nails.
Last work: 1.11 and 1 on the BEL 6 furlongs
Best mile work: 1.37 and 4
7 Line Drive, trained by Our Athletes
A winner of three including her last start in the Matron at grade three that last start was by far her best. Well behind from a wide draw she stormed home to capture the race by a nose a tactic that will no doubt be used again today. My biggest fear with her is the trip as the only time she was tested in a route she weakened in the Pocahontas and finished well behind Fear The Greatness. She has a far draw today and looked a bit better in the Matron with some Lasix in her system so i expect a stronger effort today.
Last work: 35 and 1 handily at BEL over 3 furlongs
Best Mile work: N/A
8 Amen Sista, trained by D J C Racing Stables
Progressed nicely after a maiden win to close nicely in the Spinaway to be a one length third. That was a decent effort and shouted that she would be better over a mile plus so there was a bit of anticipation about her appearance in The Alcibiades. Drawn deep she got a fair way back and came home strongly again to take third but was still two lengths off of Confidently In Love at the line. She is certainly a chance today but with a big field it will be important for her to lay up a bit closer to the leaders to have a chance with her late kick. This draw is fair and should allow her to sit mid pack and she may be one of the main hopes to stop an Mb Stables clean sweep.
Last work: 1.12 and 1 breezing the tracks six furlongs
Best Mile work: 1.37 flat
9 Fear The Greatness, trained by First Class Stable
She has been beautifully brought along to this date with destiny starting off back in May at PRX and three races later ending up in The Pocahontas. She won her maiden well enough but looked a lot better when stretched out next time in an ELP Allowance winning by a comfortable two lengths. Her last start was in that grade two where she made it three wins in a row with a smooth on the pace win, again by two lengths. The thing i liked about that win was that she was drawn wide and was allowed to go up with the pace and still had plenty left to pull away from Fortune Tune. That sort of ability will be very useful in a big field and if she can get in a stalk position she may well end up the horse that can beat the three Mb Stables runners.
Last work: 1.25 and 4 breezing the seven furlongs on the track
Best mile work: N/A
10 Plumage, trained by Sir Daniel Martin
Ran up a nice record with three wins out of four culminating in a strong win in the Adirondack but all of those efforts were over a sprint trip and she has looked less effective when stretched out in her last two. Bought at auction for just $15 her trainer has expressed their doubt at her staying this trip and the evidence does point towards a career in sprinting. Having said that there were excuses for both her recent defeats, one being on the turf and the other where she ran too freely early on so its not impossible that she could run a race but a widish draw may make it hard for her to settle again.
Last work: 1.11 and 1 working the SA six furlongs
Best mile work: 1.37 and 4
11 Beat To The Punch, trained by Mb Stables
You can be forgiven to imagine that no other stable has had a look in at the two year old graded stakes this year as we see another impressive entry from the stable. This one s a homebred and the way she disposed of a weakish field in The Chandalier last time suggests she is a very real threat to the stable favourite. Sure to stay the trip her only defeat at the top level came in the DMR Debutante where she was beaten by her stable companion Confidently In Love. Though she looks held by that horse she must be considered a top three chance and has the beating of just about every other two year old in the field going on the strong form lines between her stable mates and her. The wide draw may be the only thing that can prevent an Mb one two three.
Last work: a super speedy 34 second breeze on the track
Best Mile work: 1.37 and 3
12 Sweeping Slew, trained by Toppedout
After a maiden win on debut this daughter of Sweeping then went to the free track for her next win taking an allowance by a very easy four lengths. Since that unusual move she has been kept well away from the free races placing third in an ungraded stakes sprint before taking a small race at SAC. Up to this point she had just looked OK but then she led at the half furlong mark when ending up third in the Sorrento Stakes and then did even better to be third again in the grade one DMR Debutante. In her last two starts she placed third in the Pochahontas and then a close second in The Mazarine BC Stakes both over a trip and she has proved to be a tough and consistent filly especially with such a busy schedule. She looks held by the Mb Stables runners but not by much and i feel that with a slightly less on speed approach she may push them again today. The wide draw may help or hinder her.
Last work: 46 and 3 working handily over the four furlongs at SA
Best Mile work: N/A
13 Blue Jeans, trained by First Class Stable
Won a nice race on debut and then ran on late to be fifth in the Debutante. She then ran in an allowance and got beat before going to the Alcibiades where she flew late to grab second two lengths behind Confidently In Love with Amen Sista behind. I really liked that last effort but this horrible draw may see her so far behind early on that she may finish too late again. The odds may be generous though and i rather like her to be in at the end.
Last work: a decent 59 and 1 breeze on the track
Best Mile work: N/A
14 Confidently In Love, trained by Mb Stables
Beaten on debut she didnt bother with another maiden but instead went to the grade one DMR Debutante and duly smashed them by a length. Beating her stable companion Beat To The Punch who went on to win a grade one in her next start she looked every inch a champion and confirmed that in her next race where she toyed with another grade one field to win The Alcibiades. I wouldnt like to pick the winner between her and Levi Broom but with three top entries in the field it is very possible that Mb Stables will have the 1,2,3. Of course there is this coffin draw of 14 to deal with and if she can overcome it and best Levi Strauss she will be a true champion.
Last work: 1.12 flat breezing the track 6 furlongs
Best Mile work: 1.37 and 3
AE’s Gift Of Laughter was solid in The chandelier but she would draw wide if she got in and that would be too much of an ask. Poppy Power, similar chances to Gift Of Laughter she would find it too tough from out wide.
SUMMARY
This always looked a matter of which Mb Stables horse would win and the whole thing has been made easier by the draw monster who has given a wide draw to Confidently In Love and Beat To The Punch and the perfect draw to Levi Strauss.
So clearly Levi gets the nod its just a matter of who if anyone can break up the Mb threesome and i feel the best chances for that are Nice Az, Fear The Greatness or Amen Sista.
Categories: BC 2015-17, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
