Lexington (Grade 3)- $400.000 Purse
KEE- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
April 15, 2023
After a dominant weekend last week, Mb Stables is sitting pretty. Many other stables are not in the same predicament and will be watching the last chance to accrue points for the KYD. 20 points are on the line for the winner of the Grade 3 Lexington, with 8, 6, 4, 2 points available for the second to fifth place finishers. The big question will be, how many points are necessary to get into the big race? Presently, Deep State is in the 20th position with his 50 points, but the fact that Mb Stables has seven horses in the top 20 and can only run three of them will mean that Deep State is likely in a comfortable spot right now. The additional monkey wrench in this process is whether or not Mb Stables sells any of those horses, but I would be pretty surprised if he did at this point. After all, he can just set up his PRK nicely already, too, or simply plan for the summer, and he doesn’t want to sell a horse that could pose a big threat to one of his chosen three. It’s tight after Deep State in the points, and the results of the Lexington will be very impactful. In 2022, this race was won by Arindel’s Ey Mon, though he would bypass the KYD before finishing second in the PRK. The gate is full with twelve contenders. Here’s a look at them!
#1- Alive (Riggins Racing, ridden by G Corrales)- Riggins is clearly looking to get back to his old successful ways, and we can all be happy for that, unless you are losing to him on race day. Alive was a purchase on the third of this month $250.000, following a fifth-place finish at the Grade 3 SUN Derby. With only seven races on his resume, there is plenty of time to develop, and we’ll see how much he does. He does only have a maiden victory at this point. Nine points in total, so even if he wins, it would not be enough to make the KYD.
#2- Magical Sunset (Riggins Racing, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- The trainer spent more than double the amount he spent for Alive, on Magical Sunset. This was a $550.000 sale in January from La Canada Racehorses, and as of this time, Riggins has not gotten value for that purchase. In his two races afterwards, he got some points in a fifth place Holy Bull effort but struggled in the LA Derby. Has just five points, so winning the Lexington is more about the purse money than getting into the big race at CD.
#3- Appeal For Mercy (Diablo Diablo, ridden by E T Baird)- Here is another horse making his debut for a trainer, as Appeal For Mercy was purchased in the auction last month for $45.510. While that seems like a steal, this horse has not really done anything as of yet. Just one win in four starts, which was his maiden victory last November at FL. He was in the Mucho Macho Man on New Years Day, but was a non factor, and has not raced since. His prior trainer, Aer Stables, surely would have had him out there if he thought he was derby contender, but maybe he will surprise here.
#4- Martinez (Royalty Stables, ridden by E Jaramillo)- This is definitely a horse that needs the Lexington, as he sits 32nd on the leaderboard, with 30 points. A win gets him in, but anything less than that likely does not. If he got the second place points, I would personally enter him based on the potential for several Mb entries in front of him not getting in. Martinez has just one win in six starts, but is more reliable at hitting the board, accomplishing Christmas and. His points are courtesy of running third at the Ruby Stakes at OP.
#5- Vince The Prince (Riggins Racing, ridden by T Kennedy)- Like his other two entries in this event, Riggins purchased this one for a pretty good price, spending $400.000 to get him from Calia Stable in February. He has made one start in his new silks, coming in the Ruby Stakes, and by finishing fourth, he earned 20 points. That has him 42nd on the board, and even though a win would only get him in the mid-20’s, I think that may be enough for him, barring a private sale frenzy from Mb.
#6- Prince George (Mb Stables, ridden by J C Ferrer)- Plenty of royalty here in posts 4-6. Mb Stables has two entries in the field, and the one right next to Prince George is more of a favorite of mine. Prince George was picked up in private sales for $100.000 on the day after Christmas and has a win and two places in his three starts, all being $100.000 ungraded stakes. This colt does not have a chance at making the KYD, but the trainer will certainly settle for the winner’s share of this purse.
#7- More Twist (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- When Team 7 Illusions posted that he wanted to sell this horse, I was thinking he would go for at least $750.000 and possibly $1,000.000. I’m quite surprised that he sold him for “only” $450.000, because the horse that I have seen in the races that I have covered is one that wants to keep on running and will excel at the distances of the TC or in summer races, such as the Travers. And his sixth place run at the AR Derby doesn’t change that thought. He wants more than nine furlongs. With 20 points, he’d have a chance to get into the KYD win a win, but he also would have to convince Mb to run him over his other contenders. We’ll be seeing more of More Twist. $450.000 is really all it took. Wow. I’m still in shock over that. This is one heck of a horse right here.
#8- Apache Rise Again (Apache Warrior, ridden by A Bocachica)- This is a very interesting entry into the race, because at 22nd in the leaderboard, and eight Mb horses over him, I think his 45 points are already enough. But you can’t be so sure, and because the points are so tight behind him, depending on who ended up being entered here, it’s really a tough call. Assuming he gets no points here, a winner could surpass him, but none of Hiei, Blue Duck, At The Gates, or Censored are here, so Apache Rise Again could not drop any lower than 23rd. He’d be at the mercy of Mb potentially selling off horses that are ahead of him but based on him buying (and not selling) when it comes to More Twist, I don’t think that happens. I feel Apache Rise Again is already okay, but it’s not my horse and you never know!
#9- High In Hollywood (The Freakshow, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Here is the prototypical horse that needs the Lexington. Right now, High In Hollywood sits 31st on the leaderboard with his 30 points, so he is far enough outside the comfort zone with Mb horses to where he’s going to need more, and it will probably have to be the full twenty points for the win, though the eight points for second might be enough. He got in his situation at the beginning of the month by finishing third in the FL Derby and may be another one of those horses who is just waiting for longer distances to come. He never seems to run a bad race.
#10- Buccaneers Bounty (Nakamura Stables, ridden by R M Hernandez)- A name who’s absence in the top 20, or 25 on the leaderboard is pretty surprising, but as of right now, Nakamura Stables is being shut out of the KYD. His best shot to get in at the last second, other than by potentially buying another horse, is with Buccaneers Bounty but even that will take some work. Right now, this horse is 44th on the leaderboard with 17 points, so a win would move him up to 27th, at best. That is very much right on the cut line, I think, but probably would get him in. He’s won three of his last five, and was third in the SUN Derby in his last start. Keep an eye on this one, because the trainer’s high hopes are riding on it.
#11- Dirty Dirty Sin (Arindel, ridden by L Saez)- So much is being said about Mb Stables, but it shouldn’t be lost in the moment that Arindel will also have three horses in the KYD, and he has two horses within the top ten of the leaderboard. One of them, Gorogue Laga is liked by many, although I like Sinamaulu’s potential too. Dirty Dirty Sin is not at the level, at least not yet, of those stablemates. He may be getting there, with three wins in his last five starts. They were in good quality races, but not the type that is going to intimidate many of his rivals.
#12- Neon Town (Broken Spoke Stables, ridden by J Lezcano)- Since he was gelded, Neon Town has recorded two wins in five starts, and has been competitive on the TC trail. He would run fourth in both the Rebel and the AR Derby, and that gives him 30 points, and the 33rd position the leaderboard. Just being competitive is not enough, and he will need to return to the track for the Lexington on just two weeks rest. This is a must win for him, although like I said with the other two in here that also have 30 points, finishing second and ending up with 38 points is probably enough to get in.
Prediction: 8-7-9-4
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
