Real Good Deal Stakes ($150.000 Purse)
DMR- For Three Year Olds Foaled in CA
Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
July 27, 2016
This Wednesday out at DMR, a field of nine is set to go to post in the 14th running of the Real Good Deal Stakes, a seven furlong event for three year old Californians. This will be the first time that the race runs for a $150.000 purse, as it was initially only at $100.000. In 2012, this was doubled to $200.000, so we’re actually witnessing a cut for this year’s race. The list of past winners lacks that one real noticeable name, and Australia Wide’s Incredible Hulk, who won in 2004, heads that list in earnings, having been just a tick shy of $1,000.000 overall. Many past winners actually seem to have settle between $350.000 and $450.000 in career earnings. Australia Wide is also the only trainer to win more then once, having done so twice. D R Flores tops the jockey leaderboard with three wins. Here is our field!
#1- El Gran George (Night Mare Racing, ridden by M A Pedroza)- After a bit of seconditis, El Gran George finally broke his maiden in his fifth start, this March. Night Mare celebrated by entering him in a couple of stakes right afterward, including the Grade 3 Barrera, but El Gran George would come up short. In his last start, he took on optional claiming company at SAC and came away with his second win. Now, Night Mare tries again at this level, and that seems to be a good move after that run at SAC. No reason why he can’t win this.
#2- Going Nowhere Fast (Mb Stables, ridden by J Talamo)- The Calling The Gods colt has been a steady fixture running in CA-bred races, with five of his eleven career starts with the designation. He’s won one those races, coming in an optional claimer that was so impressive he earned a negative SRF number for that. Guess no one cared enough to report a typo there! Mb has tried to advance his career into this level, and has a couple good non-wins to his credit, including a recent third place finish in the $200.000 Eddie Stakes. This is a similar type of race to the Eddie, and he’s had a couple months to rest up for this.
#3- Double C (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by Mar Garcia)- The last two races for Double C show two stories, one being why he definitely can win this race, and the other that makes you wonder why he is here. The start two races ago, where he broke his maiden at PLN was highly impressive, especially with the way he ran at the end. His last race, makes you wonder what happened. As a bettor, your task is to determine which of those races truly best demonstrates his ability. Looking at his four prior races before those two show even more inconsistency. Tough horse to pick, but one that can definitely get to the winner’s circle. I don’t think his only purpose here is to help Le Chief, but that’s worth thinking about.
#4- Bo Jangles (Australia Wide, ridden by R Bejarano)– The trainer looks to win his third Real Good Deal Stakes, and Bo Jangles will provide a great opportunity for him to do that. He has been consistent throughout his career, winning half of his starts (four of eight), and hitting he board in six of them. The Better Tip Toe colt has also raced on the CA-bred circuit for much of his career, and has scored a couple optional claiming wins with this condition in effect. This race will be his stake debut, and he certainly seems ready to tip toe forward to this level. Oh, and he also raced in that February race with Going Nowhere Fast that accidentally got negative SRF figures! Much to like here, and he should be strongly considered.
#5- Carry The Lillies (Chili King Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- A veteran of twelve races, this recent gelding showed a lot of promise early in his career, snd that saw him run in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at KEE in a race that saw many that recently participated in the KYD. Carry The Lillies was only 11th there, but that potential was evident. He ran the TC prep trail for a little while, but couldn’t quite keep up with the elite horses of the division. Now, with the expectations toned down a little, the results have gotten better. He did win the $50.000 Governors Stakes at EMD in late May. He’s since been gelded, and after a great run at this distance at CD in his last start, he is an intriguing entry in this field. If he finally realizes to show the potential that the trainer has always seen in him, we’ll be hearing his name a lot more often.
#6- Pretty Ghost (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by V Espinoza)- A win in this race would tie V Espinoza with D Flores in jockey wins for the race, with three, and I really like his chances of doing this. He had a good two year old campaign picking up a pair of wins and made an appearance in the always competitive Colin Stakes at WO. After his second victory, he found himself as the subject of an ownership change, going from Hippyheart to D J C Racing Stables in private sales for $150.000. It’s actually hard to believe that Pretty Ghost has failed to hit the board this year, and to the credit of the trainer, he has kept plugging away at running him stakes. His best run this year was a fourth place in the Spiral, where he was beaten by Dogs Got Wings and the all of the sudden terrible Phooeys Ideal. This race is a cut back in distance for him but work times suggest that might have been a long time coming. We’ll see how it goes, but this is a truly a horse that seems long overdue for a big run.
#7- Le Chief (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- One of two that Team 7 Illusions bring to DMR for this race, and he looks to be the better of the options. He has only race three times thus far, and only two times recently. He had a rather poor debut race as many will, and was put on the shelf before reappearing six months later at SA in a CA-bred maiden on the grass, and he would do a lot better. In his last start, he picked his first win going long on the main track at SA, also against CA-breds. Both times, he came from off the pace to get the win. Looks good here, I only wonder if this race is long enough for him.
#8- Lightning Bolt (Blushing Meadows, ridden by M E Smith)- The gelding by Rene only race once as a two year old, but would start this year off with a very nice looking maiden win at SA. That got Blushing Meadows to take a shot at the Grade 2 LA Derby, but that would be way too much for him. Didn’t fare too well in a WO allowance after that, though in his last start the trainer seemed to make a tactical adjustment with him. Coming from off the pace proved to be the difference for Lightning Bolt as he won a CD allowance. He’s been great at 5 ½ furlongs but should be doing a lot more when going longer. Perhaps this will be the day. He should be one of the top picks here.
#9- Nebraska Bluff (Allinthegate, ridden by T C Baze)- The majority of his career has been spent at TUP, where four of his six starts have been, one of which resulted in a win. He was going longer in a lot of them, and in his last start, at LAD, he cut back in distance and won an allowance. Nebraska Bluff knows how to be there in the win, as he has been a part of the exacta in all but one of his races. However, he has never seen the competition he meets here today, and this may be a little tough for him.
Prediction: 5-6-8-2
— NS
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
