Allison Derby
1 Mile Dirt Stake Purse $100.000 Three-Year-Olds. At SUN
Allison Derby appeared in 2016 as the very same race you see here today. It skipped in 2021 but otherwise has been a January feature ever since. Two stables have won the race three times, Aer Stables who return with Fandom looking for a fourth and Mb Stables who bookend the list of winners by winning the first two years and last year with Scorched which hasn’t won anything since that win. The first winner was Ghost Star which had a decent career winning over $500.000. Looking like the favourite in this field is TwinTowersRacing’s Term Limits which will start from the far outside and likely trail to the far turn before launching his power attack home. Here’s the field:
Horse Owner Odds SRF
Samoan Werewolf Alydar Stables 10-1 86
Term Limits TwinTowersRacing *3-1 94
Swamp Reaper The Sidley Stud 7-2 93
Belgian Connection Nakamura Stables 4-1 97
Fandom Aer Stables 6-1 90
Sweet John Riggins Racing 9-2 92
Dune Road D J C Racing Stables 5-1 90
Hades Panionios Racing 8-1 82
Mankayia Delta Farms 4-1 92
Techloch The Sidley Stud 10-1 87
Top Dollar D J C Racing Stables 12-1 91
Brand new Fandom. An April foal. Won at first asking at TAM in November at five furlongs and now is being asked to run against proven stakes horses at a mile in January. Well, his mile work says he can do that, so I say top five. He’s young, but that mile work says he’s eager. I’d like to see those six-furlong works come down, but like I said, he’s young.
2 Sweet John Riggins Racing 92
Another lightly raced youngster, Sweet John is undefeated after two starts in sprints at low and free level tracks. He won his first start at MNR by a whopping five-lengths in a maiden $20.000 claimer. Interesting to note, the horse that ran last in that race, D J C Racing Stables’ Hobo recently won the $125.000 Notebook at AQU on the turf. Sweet John, on the other hand, went on to BTP where he won an overnight event in September and hasn’t raced since. It remains to be seen if racing fresh helps or hinders him.
3 Swamp Reaper The Sidley Stud 93
Swamp Reaper finished only half-length behind Term Limits in the $100.000 Gun Runner, so I think he’ll be close at the wire based on that and his wide resume. Picked up for the bargain price of $8.000 from Arkansas Elite, he was dropped down to BTP to score his maiden win, then sent out to HST where he ran third in the $50.000 Ascot Graduation, then back to DED to finish second in the $100.000 Lafitte. He’s been busy. He’s become a seasoned route racer, and that should payoff here for a top three finish.
4 Belgian Connection Nakamura Stables 93
Belgian Connection won at first asking at lowly FON, a $5.000 maiden affair, but then seemed to have trouble getting his wheels spinning properly with four out of the money performances, but I don’t see it that way. Those races he was thrown in were tough: the $100.000 Tyro Stakes at MTH, the $1,000.000 KD Juvenile, the $200.000 Sleepy Hollow at AQU. His SRF’s for those races would challenge SRF’s for this race. In fact, his SRF 94 while running fifth in the Tyro equals the best last in this race. After being gelded he has been in the money in much easier races, so I don’t think the gelding had anything to do with it. He’s just this good… always has been, and he should be close here.
5 Samoan Werewolf Alydar Stables 86
Samoan Werewolf is my big longshot win choice. I say 10-1. Let’s say at least 10-1. A quick glance at the form and you dismiss immediately. He’s a three-race maiden in a stakes race. He’s never even hit the board! He just looks like what is Alydar thinking? Well, I’m pretty sure Alydar is seeing what I’m seeing: works that are near the best in the field, that 1:10 3/5 on January 3 was eye popping for a three-year-old, the kind of number that belongs to older horses, his first run around two turns saw him plodding home in the mud with determination that promises his next race, this race, will be a corker. I’m putting my two Disney Dollars on him for sure.
6 Hades Panionios Racing 82
There’s one horse in this race whose mile works make Samoan Werewolf look like a field horse, and that’s Hades. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to translate those numbers into race runs. I don’t know. Maybe it’s because he has yet to actually race a mile. Maybe he’s a Morning Glory. He’s lightly raced and never seen stakes company and never raced past seven furlongs, but in the morning his most recent mile work was 1:36 3/5. Zoom. If he can lay down those numbers in this race while everyone else does their works the same, guess who wins? But, like I said, he hasn’t been able to bring those numbers out in the afternoon.
7 Mankayia Delta Farms 92
Mankayia wins every other race. That means this ain’t his time. Like that ever holds true. What is true about this horse is that was a very impressive come from behind win last out. That was pretty sharp winning time for a 92 SRF. That was a very impressive 1:37 mile work on Christmas Eve Eve. Now, he has yet to meet this kind of company, so that may be a bridge too far, but he’s developing. We’ll see. Maybe he will become enough of a factor that I will learn to pronounce his name.
8 Techloch The Sidley Stud 87
Techloch took five races to break his maiden at very low racetracks, so this is a massive step up for him. His works are strong, but not strong enough to compete with these stakes horses. That was a pretty open margin win last out, but again from an $8.000 maiden to a $100.000 stakes race is a long bridge.
9 Dune Road D J C Racing Stables 90
On his fourth attempt, Dune Road broke his maiden in a big-ticket maiden sprint at AQU. But he had just placed second in a FL maiden at 1 1/16 miles, so we get the hint that he can route and with a recent 1:37 mile work, we know he can go pretty fast. Anyway, after that win his trainer threw him in the deep end known as the $300.000 RP Springboard Mile and he ran up the track, but that race was so tough that he scored a 90 SRF running seventh. All in all, I expect a better showing here.
10 Top Dollar Angelos Stable 91
Top Dollar, a deep closer with some spectacular performances shortened up to five-furlongs and added Bute in his fourth race to break his maiden, then went back to 1 1/16 miles to run second in an overnighter. All of this is a lot of fun for a $4.010 auction grab from Mb Stables, but here again we are talking about a $100.000 stakes race. Still, his works are top notch and his SRF numbers are right where they should be.
11 Term Limits TwinTowersRacing 94
Way out here in the car park sits the race favourite, Term Limits. After breaking his maiden at AQU with a perfect stalking run at a mile, he chose to become a deep closer in the 1 1/16 mile $100.000 Gun Runner at FG he missed a KYD invitation by a half-length in a spectacular finish that came from tenth to second from the far turn. Heart stopping to watch. No mile works, but all his six-furlong works are as spectacular as his race closes. I think the outside post is what will give the Werewolf the edge on him coming home.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded