October 11, 2015
Named for a champion filly and winner of the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Turf, the Pebbles takes its spot over the BEL turf as a race for three-year-old fillies who are not quite good enough for the BC F&M Turf, or whom might be looking to build on a budding career after a long season on the dirt. This year, a field of five from all different angles come together for this one-mile contest and with $200.000 on the line, it could significantly pad the bankroll of one winner who could easily use this as a push for races like the Goldikova or the My Charmer.
1-Alayne (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Night Mare Racing)
Alayne is a half-sister to multiple Grade I winner Barbies Corvette, from a Grade I winning sire, so the ability and pedigree is certainly there for her to succeed at this level and she has shown plenty of talent in stakes races on the turf this season. She sprinted well clear in her last start and just held on for victory so this shorter trip might be all that is needed for her to come up with a much sought after second straight win.
Analysis-Put it all together last time and takes the leap forward
Fair Odds-4/1
2-La Flama (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Brave)
After a very solid juvenile campaign including a win in the Grade III Schuylerville at SAR, La Flama has failed to score in six starts this year and while there have been glimmers of hope, they have come on the main track and she cannot be expected to find that form on turf. Speed ratings are average and she has bombed at odds-on in a number of races, leading to longshot status here unless she shows something on the grass that has not been there.
Analysis-Turf debuting filly has made it tough for herself all year
Fair Odds-15/1
3-Ubet Sheza Queen (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Ubetracing.com)
Ubet Sheza Queen ran superstar Summer Storm to within a length of victory in the Grade III Noble Damsel and although she carries more weight here in the Pebbles, she has done well with this impost in previous efforts and for that reason, has to be considered a very serious contender. Her last out rating is the best in the field and comes with the right running style but that last workout might not be her best and that could be an omen of a regression.
Analysis-Her last was excellent and makes her the choice
Fair Odds-5/2
4-Tannery (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Give Tannery a firm turf and she is a very solid filly but she is lightly raced with no stakes experience and for the new owners, she might need a race or two before she hits her best stride against top fillies. She gets one of the outer posts for her closing kick and will get some speed inside to run at but on paper, she looks to be overmatched for the win and more than likely, a candidate for a smaller share.
Analysis-Not in the same class level as the top runners
Fair Odds-10/1
5-Sankee Lady (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sarah Stables)
Sankee Lady came off the layoff with a big win over a soft AP turf but his follow-up effort in the Christiecat was clearly not as good and the hope is that she can run back to that effort at FG last Winter, where she closed for second as the favourite. She is the type who seems to enjoy the grass and could make a good impression but you had to expect more from her last time and that is a bit of a concern for those taking her right back.
Analysis-Would have liked more of a closing kick in her last
Fair Odds-6/1
Overall
Stakes experience is key in taking horses for victory in this big stakes races and coming into the Pebbles, Ubet Sheza Queen has the best preparation and the best chance to win going a flat-mile and that is why she is my choice to win. Alayne has the pedigree to excel on the grass and carries the most experience by far, so she gets slotted into second while Sankee Lady could return to form with a good effort and might be able to close into third late.
Prediction
Win-Ubet Sheza Queen (5/2)
Place-Alayne (4/1)
Show-Sankee Lady (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
