August 18, 2016
Some of the top three-year-old fillies take to the SAR turf on Sunday afternoon for the Grade II Lake Placid and while it has really only gained prominence in recent years, it is also overshadowed by races like the new BEL Oaks and the Grade I DMR Oaks on the same weekend. Won in the past by Donna Jean and last year by Altered Skeleton, the 2016 edition draws the top finishers in the recent Lake George but a wildcard in the winner of the Grade I Diana, one of the top races on the turf and the type of race that would yield the favourite in any race of this caliber. But there are so many logical contenders that choosing the top pick might be tricky, and the nine-furlong event will come down to pace and pressure with the best late kick ultimately deciding the winner.
1-Pretty Little Pirate (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Mare Racing)
Pretty Little Pirate was actually a top contender heading into the Grade I BEL Oaks but after breaking well, she never took a step and trailed home everyone in the field and at this shorter distance, she might be able to stay the course a little bit better. She was good closing from off the pace in the Edgewood back in May, but that might be the limit of her stamina, and unless she finds a hot pace to charge into, she might be gasping in the lane while others are still coming on strong.
Analysis-Might be limited by distance in this spot
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Lucky You (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Rouge River Stables)
Stretching out to a route of ground has worked wonders for Lucky You in her two starts for Rouge River Stables, and a head win at GG was followed up by a mammoth dead-heat for victory in the Grade I Diana with champion Attraction, and keeping that kind of company bodes well for her chances in this easier spot. The speed rating might not have been as high as others in the field, but she does have a course and distance win to her credit and that cannot be overlooked; add in the potential for rain and an yielding or soft turf, and you have a filly who can handle all kinds of conditions with solid form.
Analysis-Grade I winner could be tough if she continues to move forward
Fair Odds-3/1
3-Swarley Kapai (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Grimley)
Getting back to the turf was exactly what Swarley Kapai needed, and her wire-to-wire triumph in the Grade II Lake George gives her a huge chance to take another victory if the rain holds off and she gets a clear lead up front. She was actually a contender in some of the bigger races leading up to the KY Oaks, but has switched to turf and seems to be better suited to the surface, so another big effort can be expected with speed to spare and stamina as well.
Analysis-Will be looking for another front running score
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Tennessee Titan (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Tennessee Titan has been excellent up to one-mile, but has yet to move forward at the added distances, and that could pose a huge problem at nine-furlongs, if she fails to quicken when ask the top of the lane. Her win in the Mount Vernon two starts back came over a soft turf, which is possible on Sunday, but she was an even fourth in the Boiling Springs and could have stayed at MTH; the fact that she moves to this tougher spot shows confidence from her owner, and that could mean a better than expected effort.
Analysis-Might be up against it at this distance
Fair Odds-10/1
5-Triptych (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-John Henry)
Triptych was purchased for $90.000 with the intention of racing in, and possibly winning, the Wonder Where Stakes, but she ran into a pair of monsters and did well to finish third and now, facing a slightly easier field at a shorter distance, might be able to close well enough to finish with a big share. Although his speed ratings are lower than most in the field, she has faced some very good runners in her last few races, and she seems to fit for a minor award, if others do not run to their best.
Analysis-Maiden winner faces a tough test to hit the board
Fair Odds-15/1
6-Smokin Nebulae (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Smokin Nebalue started her career in stakes company and has never faced anything else, but while a single win in the Eatontown and a runner-up finish in the Lake George might make her attractive to some handicappers, she will be at the mercy of the fractions up front and the condition of the track, and that could leave her in a tough spot. There looks to be a lack of early speed, and she is a confirmed closer, so the hope is that she will be able to be close up like she has in the past, and if she can handle that added 1 1/16 mile, she might be able to hit the board.
Analysis-Pace and stamina will be in question for this stakes tested filly
Fair Odds-5/1
7-Viking Amy (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Delta Farms)
With six top two placings in eight career starts on the grass, Viking Amy certainly has done well on the turf in the past, and her eighth in the BEL Oaks was solid enough, despite the fact that she was unable to close enough past rivals after racing in contention right to the top of the lane. Her speed ratings are good enough to win this event, and she knows how to handle an extended distance, but she has not been able to come through in the clutch with any really big efforts, and that could leave her short of others in the field.
Analysis-Solid filly seems to lack that forward punch
Fair Odds-8/1
Overall
It is tough to choose a favourite between the wire-to-wire power of Lake George winner Swarley Kapai and charging runner-up Smokin Nebalue in the Grade II Lake Placid, and that is why this handicapper is taking a different approach and putting Grade I winner Lucky You in the top spot going nine-furlongs on the SAR turf. She is one of only two entrants with a win over an off-track, and the rain expected on Sunday could play havoc so look for a completely different race if the heavens open up with any one of the seven likely to move forward.
Prediction
Win-Lucky You (3/1)
Place-Swarley Kapai (4/1)
Show-Smokin Nebalue (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
