October 2, 2015
More than half of the field in the Grade I Spinster are three-year-olds so there is a good chance that for the third straight year, a sophomore will prove victorious and even a slight chance that it could be a Sanny Village entrant once again. With its standard $500.000 purse, and its guaranteed entry into the Grade I BC Distaff, it has attracted a solid field of 11 including numerous Grade I winners and even a pair of former champions trying for a much sought after return to glory. Nine-furlongs is right in the wheelhouse of many in this evenly matched field but showers in the forecast could spell trouble for many of the top contenders who might not have the stamina to last over the very taxing conditions.
1-Lullaby Maker Tf (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)
Lullaby Maker Tf rides a four-race winning into the Spinster and while her score in the ONT Matron was only okay, her win in the Grade I Personal Ensign was amazing and even with a slow-ish final furlong, he has more than enough left to hold on for the win. The inside post will allow her to rocket to the lead and going two-turns at KEE from the inside will be a huge benefit so look for another top class effort for a filly who already has her sights set on a race with the same conditions a few weeks from now.
Analysis-Incredible at SAR and the only concern is a bounce
Fair Odds-5/2
2-Kentucky Fried Chick (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Nolespan Racing)
No one ever gives Kentucky Fried Chick respect on the toteboard and the truth is, she will probably a longshot once again despite four wins in eight seasonal starts and a decent fourth in the recent Personal Ensign. She was able to closed for victory in the Shuvee two back but her workouts have been slow as of late and she will need to be at her very best to win here, and that is still a tough prospect given the class.
Analysis-Might not be at the Grade I level just yet
Fair Odds-20/1
3-Lingerie Fantasy (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Lingerie Fantasy looked like a good thing finishing second in the Black-Eyed Susan at PIM but after finishing up the track in both the Acorn and the CCA Oaks, she needed a confidence builder and got that in the Locust Grove at CD last time out. Unfortunately, her speed ratings are clearly below the best in this group and she might not be suited leading gate-to-wire so the chances of her coming up with another top effort at this level are quite slim at best.
Analysis-Last race was good but she still needed marked improvement
Fair Odds-15/1
4-Sinissippi Delite (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Axeman)
Sinissippi Delite is a former champion and BC Distaff winner who, while a Grade I winner this season, has been a shell of her former self and needs to really step up her game if she hopes to make it back to defend her title. Since being purchased for a massive $950.000, she has only been a minor factor in races she easily could have won and whether she is a false champion, or just coming up to a big effort in preparation for the Distaff, is your guess as well as mine.
Analysis-Not the same filly we saw last year
Fair Odds-10/1
5-Laffin In Texas (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sanny Village)
On precedent alone, Laffin In Texas has to be considered a win candidate in the Spinster, simply because Sanny Village three-year-old fillies has won the last two; however, the FG Oaks winner has finished off the board in her last three starts and that is never a good sign coming into a Grade I contest. She failed to menace in the IND Oaks and was way too far back from post 12 in the Ballerina, and the hope here is that she can use her middle gate to get into the race early, and save some ground for a closing kick that will be sorely needed.
Analysis-Decent enough but not at this level
Fair Odds-20/1
6-Jenny Sunrise (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Sanny Village)
Wins in the Santa Monica and the Grade I Apple Blossom signaled the rise of Jenny Sunrise in the Distaff division but she was unable to carry that momentum through the Summer and finds herself in struggle mode coming into KEE. Favoured in her last two at this level, she could not hold on at BEL and could not close enough at DMR and while she is clearly at this caliber, finding the right racing style will be the key to unlocking her potential.
Analysis-Not sure whether she will be close or come late
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Quiet Elegance (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Kayce upset the Fleet Indian at SAR in a 150-1 shocker and while Quiet Elegance ran a great race in second, she really should have won with the fractions she set and the fear is that the early pressure on her will be her downfall in the latter stages. She likes to be right up with the leaders and her workouts indicate that speed but this is a tough contest for those who like to go wire-to-wire and you cannot back her with any confidence unless the pace is absolutely glacial.
Analysis-Needs the lead but that will come at a price
Fair Odds-20/1
8-Ouija Boardd (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Eastern Equine)
Purchased less than a month ago for almost $90.000, Ouija Boardd makes a big jump in class off a lackluster third at DMR and coming off the bench, will be hard pressed to win in her first stakes attempt. She did win an allowance event at DMR against a decent field but the final time was slow and if she needs to close, it will be against much tougher company than she has been facing and that could leave her short.
Analysis-Big jump off an okay effort is too much
Fair Odds-30/1
9-A Class Angie (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
There have been very few older fillies as consistent as A Class Angie all year and even though the season started off slowly, she has two Grade I wins and two Grade I runner-ups in her last four starts and that is good enough to make her a top contender. This post position is perfect for her closing kick and she should love the distance and the surface; couple those factors with recent form and some maintenance workouts and you have a class filly with a big chance to back up her credentials.
Analysis-Consistent and should love the surface
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Baked Bread (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
SAR Dew winner Baked Bread moves back into open company for the Spinster and seems to be on the upswing, with the possibility of adding speed to an already speedy field. Top three finishes in all of her seven starts show a consistency that others lack but many have been against allowance fields and unless she can really step up her game, she might only be suited for those types of races and not this high level.
Analysis-Comes in with good form but needs to prove it against Grade I fillies
Fair Odds-8/1
11-Short Dog (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Maverick Racing)
Triple Grade I winning juvenile Short Dog went on a bit of a tear to start her four-year-old campaign, racking up three straight wins including the Bayakoa at OP but the wheels have fallen off on the grass and a return to the main track might be just what he doctor ordered. Workouts have been decent and we know she is good enough at this level, and with closing ability, the farthest post might be the best place for her if she is looking to close from back and find enough room.
Analysis-Interesting play with the move back to the main track
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
The Grade I Spinster is one of the most important preps for the BC Distaff but so is the Personal Ensign at SAR and the top four finishers from that race meet up again here, with the top two as my top two to finish there once again. Lullaby Maker Tf looked great from a wide post in her wire-to-wire win and should love the inside track here, while A Class Angie is a classy filly who closed smartly to finish a clear second, and that is whom will finish on top again if things go according to plan. Short Dog will take my third spot as a filly in desperate need of a surface change, and the return to the dirt might be all that is needed for her to regain some of the juvenile form that saw her win a bunch of Grade I events.
Prediction
Win-Lullaby Maker Tf (5/2)
Place-A Class Angie (4/1)
Show-Short Dog (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
