The Suncoast Stakes [KYO]
TAM Race #9 1m 70 Dirt Stake
Purse $150.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Love Affair TwinTowersRacing Davis D 120 —

In a race where a few have a penalty to carry I rather like this one drawn the ace and not beaten far in better races than this. A closing fourth in the DMR Debutante, she followed that with a fourth from on the speed in the Mazarine BC Stakes. Now assuming the gaming buttons were used for the different running styles she definitely ran better as a closer and showed that when beaten around a length in the Santa Ynez Stakes last time. I feel this gate will allow her to stay a bit closer for her late run and as long as the race engine works in her favor there is no reason she cannot win.

2 El Sweetie Greyfriars Stable Baird E T 122 —

The winner of two from just three runs she took the PARX Future Stars last time in very nice fashion and looks a decent filly in the making. She gets a penalty here which won’t be easy to carry but does get the two gate which will help for sure. Sure to be closing hard and that does seem to be the tactic of choice in these KYO and KYD qualifiers.

3 Sometimes Sincere Asgar Lezcano J 120 —

Won her maiden nicely on the turf but was a bit ordinary on the dirt in her last race and she will have to show plenty of improvement over this longer trip to be a factor. Her works are getting better though so with a good gate she gets her chance.

4 Gala Brand D J C Racing Stables Hernandez R M 120 —

Won her maiden on turf but hasn’t run too badly on the dirt in her last two so can’t be ruled out on just the surface, She is another that has switched between running styles so it is tough to know where she will end up in transit but she has been competitive in lower grade so there is no reason why she won’t be competitive here.

5 Liquor In Front High Voltage Garcia Mar 120 —

Won a couple of State-Breds last year but didn’t fire on seasonal debut in the Santa Ynez. She ended up eleventh in that race but as is typical at HRP wasn’t beaten far so it wouldn’t take too much improvement for her to get into this. Her works have been solid, and she will be fit enough to run her best today.

6 A Better Zion La Canada Racehorses Bridgmohan S X 120 —

An on-speed type so may try the same tactics that have seen the winner of her last two. There isn’t much pressure for the lead inside her so she should cross pretty easily, and she won her last two with a bit in hand albeit at a lower grade.

7 Shared Decision Mb Stables Moore R L 120 —

Took a while to break her maiden but when she did, she did it very impressively making all to win by four. She switched tactics to run from the back last time over a shorter trip when a good third in the Gasparilla Stakes, and I am sure the trainer will be having headaches about which tactic to use today. This looks a good opportunity for her to get herself in the Oaks picture.

8 Happy Dancer Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 120 —

A speedy type, she won her maiden and an allowance off the front but then went a little too quick in the Silverbulletday Stakes and ended up fading a little in the last furlong. She still managed third which was a decent run, and she looks a contender for the win on her form so far.

9 Blue Velvet Wood Duck Stables Lopez P 122 —

Gets a penalty for a win in the State-Bred Juvenile Fillies Sprint but then went long in a competitive Optional Claimer at SA and ran a very nice second, running on the pace the whole way. Her works are good, she may get a bit of wide gate speed here and if she can slot in just behind the leaders, she may be a decent chance even with a penalty.

10 Luminous Gold Alydar Stables Velazquez J R 122 —

If there is one here that on form more than deserves a 2Lb penalty it is this one. Third in the grade one Frizette after her State-Bred stakes win she went on to be a brilliant second in the BC Juvenile Fillies, form which is far better than any other runner in this race. She disappointed as an odds-on favorite in the Demoiselle after being bought for $500.000 from Fractious but may have needed that run after the break. She has a superior body of work here but needs to prove she has trained on from a successful juvenile season.

11 Elegance Of Light Wood Duck Stables Geroux F 120 —

Closed over sprint trips in her first three races but was then stretched out over a mile and sixteenth and closed again but in plenty of time to take the win. She hasn’t done enough on paper but is clearly an improving sort who will take the late wide route which has been so successful this year.

12 Rain Rattle Bears Stable Alvarado F T 122 —

The car park goes to a very progressive filly which has won her last five races. She gets a penalty for her win last time in the Gowell Stakes but deserves her shot at the big time today although the draw monster hasn’t made it easy. She will be the best $4.000 claim in history, if she runs over the top of them today.

SUMMARY

On paper and juvenile form Luminous Gold is a shoe in here with by far the best form. I was so disappointed in her effort in the Demoiselle last time though that I feel I need to see her run well before getting too enthusiastic about her again. So, outside the obvious I like the look of a couple, Love Affair gets a draw and certainly has the form to win this if the race engine doesn’t ruin her chances, next to her there are three drawn together in Shared Decision, Happy Dancer and Blue Velvet and they all look good chances if they can work with their sticky gates.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded