August 11, 2016
The Grade I AP Million is always the type of race that brings out the best of the Turf division at HRP and on Saturday afternoon, the same will certainly hold true with another huge field of 13 assembled for the 1 ¼ mile journey. Bombastic Kathology became the second sophomore to win last year and four three-year-olds have decided to take on their older rivals this time around, as opposed to the Grade I Secretariat earlier on the card, and that makes things extra interesting, especially since the defending champ is back and coming off a huge upset win at BEL in his last going this same distance. Add in a quartet of $1,000.000 earners and some of the fastest horses on the grass and you have an incredible field that will be hard to handicap yet one of the most exciting of the entire year.
1-Five Daddy Darling (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Five Daddy Darling was claimed for only $8.000 in November 2014 and while he was winner in allowance company in early 2015, it took him more than a year for his second win for the current owners and now, he looks for back-to-back victories after besting state-bred rivals at EVD last time out. A series of good efforts including a bang-up second in the BEL Gold Cup set him up for a huge going-away win in the LA Legends Turf and those 100-speed ratings should be enough to keep him in contention with an inside post helping him get into the race earlier than most.
Analysis-Seems to be improving and the inside post will help
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Sir Tom (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Brave)
Sir Tom sprung a huge upset in the Grade I BC Mile last year to cap a huge season that included two other Graded Stakes victories and this year, he has matched that total and with wins in the Grade II Dixie and the Grade I United Nations, making him a big contender in his first AP start. Another inside post will help him hug the rail in the opening furlongs and he always seems to find a space in the last few furlongs; add to that the fact that the distance should be perfect for him but loses his regular rider and you get a horse with a big chance but one who needs the ideal set up.
Analysis-Big season already and looks to become a champion
Fair Odds-5/1
3-Hes Juiced Up (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Joshua Stables)
Hes Juiced Up paid immediate dividends off his June purchase with a mammoth off-the-pace score in the Grade II King Edward BC at WO but he is now asked to take on the world in only his second turf start and is ripe for a big bounce off that career effort. A huge series of workouts at PRX will have his fitness up but his stamina could be in question and he actually goes the longest distance of his short career, a factor that cannot be overlooked despite his late running style.
Analysis-Will be charging home but needs to have enough in reserve
Fair Odds-8/1
4-Foggy Vision (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Owner Sanny Village has pulled off some shocking and longshot wins in recent weeks and will look to do the same on Saturday with Foggy Vision, fourth in his return then second in the local prep at odds of 22-1. He was good enough to win the DMR Derby as a three-year-old but might find the 1 ¼ mile distance a little too long; he falls into that tough category as a horse who loves the in-between distances, to the detriment of those who back him on these big days.
Analysis-Looks for an upset at a tough distance
Fair Odds-20/1
5-Simbas Revenge (Four-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kopites)
Simbas Revenge has not faced stakes company since the TC trail last year and already with nine starts this year, and only two wins, he is the most seasoned of any in the field with no signs of stopping in the near future. The speed rating earned in a runner-up finish last time was 20-points lower than some in the field and on paper, he is severely overmatched; someone has to finish last and it could be this guy as he jumps from a $20.000 claimer to the biggest Grade I race of the weekend.
Analysis-Not in the same league
Fair Odds-50/1
6-Classic Cliche (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Classic Cliche came with a rousing run to finish fifth in the Grade I BEL Derby in only his sixth career start and will look to build on that effort at AP over the same distance but as with many, a change in jockey will hinder his progression forward, as will facing the same horse who beat him last time out. He looks to be improving with each start and comes in for an owner who has won this race before and if the favourite gets some pace pressure up front, this could be the sophomore to capitalize with eyes on a big prize for everyone involved.
Analysis-Ideally suited to close into the fractions
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Lunar Blaze (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Pan Farms)
Since being purchased and adding Bute, Lunar Blaze has been unstoppable with four straight wins over different surfaces, distances and classes but Saturday will be the acid test as he faces a new challenge against older and more seasoned rivals at this level on the grass. A near wire-to-wire winner of the BEL Derby from post 14, he gets a much better post with which to flaunt his speed and if he gets anything close to a modest pace, he has all the mettle in the world to withstand the pressure put on by the closers, as good as they are.
Analysis-Has done nothing wrong and might finally be favoured
Fair Odds-4/1
8-Grande Sournoise (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Grande Sournoise is still eligible for N1X after five career starts and while he has finished on the board in two straight top class events, he will need more to hit the board against this massive field and especially against one loaded with talent from top to bottom. He seems to enjoy going long on the lawn but has never really been able to get up for the win when it counts the most and while this might be his best trip, he still needs to find that final punch to really be considered a win candidate in this race and others down the line.
Analysis-Lightly raced and hoping to find that final late momentum
Fair Odds-15/1
9-Bombastic Kathology (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)
Owner Oval Express Farms has three Grade I wins to their credit and two have come from Bombastic Kathology, who shocked the field by a half-length last year and pulled off an equally big upset last time in the Grade I Manhattan Handicap against another huge field. The outside stalls over the BEL turf were the place to be this season and this colt took full advantage but now he has to handle speed pressure up front and if he gets into a duel, he might not have enough left to last the tricky ten-furlongs.
Analysis-Always there for an upset but very hit and miss
Fair Odds-8/1
10-Heart Pocket Jeans (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Yahudi Stables)
Heart Pocket Jeans is certainly a consistent colt with 11 top two finishes in 20 career starts but only 3 of those have been victories and his win-shy style will not suit him well as he looks to build his credentials for new connections. He set the pace in the Grade III Poker, lost the lead then rallied back for second and with a career-best speed rating, knows that he will have to handle extra speed up front while negotiating the longest race of his career; certainly not an easy task.
Analysis-Will be close early but might not have the stamina
Fair Odds-12/1
11-Seven Years (Seven-year-old black horse / Owner-Alydar Stables)
No horse older than five has won the AP Million and you only have three contenders to buck that trend among the 13 signed on but Seven Years looks to be one of the top choices given his past performances, even if only a few of them have ever come at a distance this long. He only has a single win this year and that came all the way back in January and finishes behind fellow Million entrants at both PIM and WO put him up against it, given the fact that he does his best running up front and there is so much early speed signed on.
Analysis-Faces familiar rivals and not at his best distance
Fair Odds-10/1
12-Breiterate (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Asgar)
Breiterate scored one of the biggest wins of his career over the AP turf, taking the 2013 Secretariat Stakes with a well-timed off-the-pace move and on Saturday, he will look to do the same from an outside post in a field loaded with speed. Since being purchased, he has shown more pace than usual and that has caused him some grief in the latter stages so a reversal back to his closing ways would be more advantageous and one that could see him pass rivals for a bigger than expected share.
Analysis-One win in the last two years makes him a longshot
Fair Odds-25/1
13-Desolation Island (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
The AP Million field would not be complete without a starter from Mb Stables and multiple Grade I winner Desolation Island fits the bill perfectly, although his last two efforts leave something to be desired given his mammoth three-year-old campaign. A tiring fifth in the Shoemaker Mile then a tiring fourth in the United Nations, it might not have the stamina he once had and needs to show more restraint early in the race; if he can get into midpack from his wide draw and sit a stalking trip, he could make a similar move to his race at KEE and take home a big piece.
Analysis-Will be forced to make some early gains to save ground
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
Some of the best horses at HRP line up Saturday afternoon for the $1000.000 AP Million and with a Grade I win on the line, Lunar Blaze will look to use his early speed and sprint away from rivals late en route to what could become a career-defining victory for him after his BEL Derby score. He certainly faces some very classy older rivals and Sir Tom will provide all the closing kick he can handle, with wins in the Dixie and United Nations as certification of his talent, while Desolation Island will look to get back on track from the widest post with eyes on adding a fourth Grade I tally to his form and a third in this race for his owner.
Prediction
Win-Lunar Blaze (4/1)
Place-Sir Tom (5/1)
Show-Desolation Island (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
