October 23, 2015
The Maid Of The Mist has never really been a big stepping stone for any of the winners since its first running in 2004 and after a four year hiatus, it came back in 2014 featuring a six-horse field. While the winner, Geek Watch, became a Grade III winner after that, both runner-up Sirens Blaring and fourth place finish Dead Ant Dead Ant have gone on to even greater success and that bodes well for any of the six running in this year’s edition, which does not have any stakes winners yet but plenty of potential if they live up to their exciting pedigrees.
1-Stellar (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-M.b.o Racing Stable)
From the great Charley Farley comes Stellar, a one-time winner in five lifetime starts who was unable to get anything going last time out in the Seeking The Ante at SAR and will hope that a longer distance will spur something more. Her top speed rating of 89 was earned in the mud and with no rain in the forecast, she will praying for a speed duel up front and an inside run that might allow her to get up for a minor award.
Analysis-Did not bred confidence with her last start
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Distant Waters (Two-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Distant Waters is out of a Grade I winning sire and is a half-sister to multiple stakes winning turf filly Sweet Red, so the pedigree is there to her to get the distance better than she did in the Grade I Alcibiades last time at KEE. The big problem with her is that she probably likes the turf better than the dirt and unless she finds her footing over the main track, she might be spinning her wheels once again before moving back to a career over the grass.
Analysis-Could be a better turf horse but only time will tell
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Sold Out (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
A maiden winner at BOI and a solid second against tougher at MTH, Sold Out comes in with decent enough form but no distance racing to speak of and might simply be a pace threat unless she can harness some of that early energy. She shows some good workouts over the surface including a best-of one-mile effort, which came with good final speed, so she might have turned a corner and could be the sleeper in this lightly raced group.
Analysis-Her last workout signals a change in form
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Laffin Diplomat (Two-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Laffin Diplomat won her maiden at FL in impressive fashion and comes from a solid route family; two factors that could see her improve enough to make a big impression the Maid Of The Mist and possibly finish with a top two placing. Workouts have been improving and she seems to fit speed-wise so look for her to break smartly, place herself in the first tier and get a big crack at the leaders around the wide turns at BEL.
Analysis-Maiden winner steps up but has the ability
Fair Odds-5/1
5-Lady Is A Tramp (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
After two great efforts to start her career, Lady Is A Tramp tried to earn her way into the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and failed, constituting a return to the drawing board and a return to the main track here. Her second in the Seeking The Ante produced the biggest speed rating of anyone in the field and if she gets some inside speed, she could be the best closer in the field and one who makes the race late in the lane.
Analysis-Gets back to her best surface and could be a closing threat
Fair Odds-7/2
6-Ironboundlass (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Ironboundlass is one of the few fillies in this field with experience going long on the main track and while it only resulted in a runner-up finish, it was against a solid enough finish that it warrants respect and could be a building block to a big race. She will need to show more late enterprise if she wants to hold off the closers but in an evenly matched field, experience going a route of ground is key and she certainly has the form to do that.
Analysis-Lukewarm choice needs to close things out
Fair Odds-3/1
Overall
In the Maid Of The Mist, experience over the main track has to be the determining factor and while the best are preparing for the BC, Ironboundlass is the type of filly who will be looking to back up her credentials for a solid owner and warrants favouritism simply based on her last effort, which was quite good. Lady Is A Tramp returns to the dirt off a failed turf attempt and could be the best closer in the field while Sold Out needs to harness her speed and could do so based on her last workout so in theory, it really is a wide-open event with any number of outcomes when $250.000 is on the line.
Prediction
Win-Ironboundlass (3/1)
Place-Lady Is A Tramp (7/2)
Show-Sold Out (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
