The Orchid (Grade 3)- $200.000 Purse
GP- For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward
One Mile and Three Eighths on the Inner Turf
April 2, 2016
There are a couple of options this weekend at GP for older females that want to run long on the turf. They can go a mile in the Fox, or they can go real long, to the tune of eleven furlongs in the Grade 3 Orchid. This year’s Orchid will be the thirteenth running of the event, and it will see a return to the $200.000 Purse level that it debuted at in 2004. After the inaugural race, the purse had been at $150.000 up until this year. With the purse increase, comes a distance decrease, as this race had been at a mile and a half every year until this year. Therefore, we really will not be able to compare the winning times of this year’s winner with past history. No trainer has won the race more then once, which is pretty surprising. On the jockey leaderboard, J R Velazquez has two wins, and is the only such rider with more then one winner. Overall, this looks like a pretty wide open race, and there will be nine going to post. Before we meet them, note that there is now a 50% chance of rain at GP on Saturday. That number has been going up, as opposed to going down. Hopefully for this great card in store, the elements can stay away. Here are our nine runners!
#1- Maistro Power (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J Bravo)- The trainer will be looking for his second consecutive win in the Orchid, and he puts his faith in this Il Miglio Fabro filly to get the job done in what will be her stake debut. She joined Nakamura Stables via the March 2015 auction for $14.680 after not doing a whole lot on the track up to the point. Nakamura took off the shadow roll, and just like that the performances starting getting a lot better. Her last two starts are victories, taking an N1X allowance at MTH before winning an optional claimer in good form at SA last month. She has never run more then 1 1/8, but her ending fractions in those races make me feel very good about her ability to handle this distance here.
#2- Volare (Axeman, ridden by J J Castellano)- Nobody on the track has won more then this six year old mare, as Volare has exceeded $1,200.000 in career earnings. However, you really have to go back a little on her past performances to see where that money was won. She’s won four graded stakes over the course of her career, but just one has been with her current trainer. That win came on soft turf, where she impressively closed to score the big win in the Grade 2 NY. Her only other career start on an off track was in the 2014 Sheepshead Bay, a Grade 2 at BEL, and she won that as well. So, don’t be surprised if Axeman is seen doing a rain dance for this one. She does have three wins in her last four starts, but those have been in overnights. She returned to graded company here at GP for the G3 Very One, and disappointed. Volare loves this exact distance though and is a perfect 5-for-5 at eleven furlongs.
#3- Sonoma (Alabarda Stable, ridden by M Aguilar)- With all the top jockeys hanging around GP for the FL Derby, the current jockey declaration of M Aguilar is a little surprising and we should not count out an announced jockey change before post time. Sonoma is the top horse in the Alabarda barn, and she has two graded wins that make up her nine career victories. In her most recent race, she had finished third but had her photo taken with the top two in the Grade 2 Buena Vista at SA. That’s going down now as a very tough race, as the two that beat her, as well as the 4th place horse, have recently been seen in bigger stakes or will be seen on Saturday right here, in the case of Natural Flower. Sonoma has never gone this exact distance, but if you go back to 2014 you’ll see great results going nearly as long. None of her 23 career starts have been on an off track.
#4- Vertigineux (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by R J Albarado)- If Vertigineux ends up in the winners circle, it will mark the second year in a row that R J Albarado has won the stake. The Plucky Dogma filly has been patiently brought along to this point by her trainer, and now after a series of ungraded stakes, she tries graded company for the first time. Vertigineux knows how to get the job done, with seven wins in seventeen career starts, and six of the wins are in her last ten races. She finally broke through in the $100.000 Sand Springs in her last start, and like the second place horse in that very race, she debuts in graded company at GP wearing #4. Storm Yell will be in The Fox. The only time she’s been near this distance was a FL open allowance, and that was one of her wins. Two off track starts do not breed optimism, but they were each a long time ago.
#5- Spirit Woman (Hunterman Stable, ridden by R Bejarano)- This four year old Tin Escariot filly has won five of fifteen career races, but will look to pick up her first graded win. She has tried twice, with her second effort being much better then her first. That came in the Grade 3 Very One at the beginning March, where she was third, defeating Volare in the process. Both of them were running well at the end, so we should not be too concerned with this being a longer race when comparing the two of them. Spirit Woman is very experienced in longer races, and is able to get the job done while running on the lead or coming from behind. If the rain comes, note that she is 2-for-2 on off tracks, with one of this wins here in February.
#6- Sweet Red (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- The jockey looks to score his third career win in the stake while the trainer seeks his first win in the stake. In the summer of 2015, Sweet Red got red hot, and picked up three straight wins, one of which was the $250.000 Wonder Where for ON-Breds. That win led to more confidence, which would ultimately lead to her being placed in the Grade 1 Taylor Stakes at WO, and she would run a decent third. Despite earning a 100 SRF in that race, we haven’t really seen the trainer try to advance her further, at least not yet. After a four month layoff, she returned here for an optional claimer and disappointed. But maybe that was just a case of her needing the race to get back into shape. This would seem to be a good spot to see if she still has that ability in her, allowing us to write that race off due to the layoff. She is also 2-for-2 on off tracks.
#7- Moonlight Cloud (Alydar Stables, ridden by J R Leparoux)- Here is another one coming out of the Grade 3 Very One here last month, but unlike Volare and Spirit Woman, she was not competitive in the race. Moonlight Cloud could only muster a seventh place finish, and was six lengths from the winner. That has been the story of her career when the trainer has entered her against graded company. Going back about a year, you’ll see a couple of ugly lines as well. In the hands of her prior trainer, she was much better, and was even third in the BC Juvenile Turf. She was sold after the race for $365.000, it looks as though Blushing Meadows made a wise decision there. Heading into this race, Moonlight Cloud is working well, and did win the SSM Turf two back. There’s reason to believe.
#8- Trance The River (Our Athletes, ridden by M G Pino)- This four year old filly was recently purchased by Our Athletes in the March auction for $70.010. In the long run, that will likely prove to be a wise purchase, but for this race you have to be concerned about the layoff, which is at four months. Not only that, but this will also be the longest race of her career, by two furlongs, and she was not particularly impressive in that race. That came in the Grade 3 Violet, her only graded attempt, and she was a distant fourth. Other then that, she has been very good and shows a strong level of consistency. I just think she has a couple of factors working against her in this one. The results in the long term figure to be a lot better then what we may see here.
#9- Wire Z Wire (Diablo Diablo, ridden by J Rosario)- Ever since she broke her maiden, the trainer has not messed around with his Z Cars filly and has consistently put her up against some of the best, running only in graded stakes, or ungraded events with higher then average purses. She has won one of them, that coming almost a year ago in the Grade 3 Appalachian at KEE. Other then that, the impressive part about Wire Z Wire is more her consistency to get in the money in these types of races, moreso then winning then outright. She has never raced at this distance before, but in looking at her finishing fractions in past races, I feel very good that she can thrive at this distance. Give her a look to hit the board, though pick others on top.
Prediction: 1-5-2-9
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
