The Suburban (Grade 2) (BC)- $400.000 Purse
BEL- For Four Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Quarter on the Dirt
July 3, 2021

It’s been a month since the BEL was completed here, and now we move into the summer months where the thoughts of the trainers throughout the virtual racing world shift to the BC. The 17th running of the Grade 2 Suburban provides very valuable BC points for the BC Classic itself. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that we are seeing some great horses in this field, and at least this year, the purse will be more worthy of the horses that run for it. We’re not back to the $700.000 level that we had been at, but at least the $400.000 is double the amount that the 2020 race went for. Having A Blast was the winner of that race, for Mb Stables, and while he did forego the BC Classic, he continues to have a successful career and is looking to duplicate his achievement this year. If he were to win, he would become the first horse ever to win the Suburban twice. Let’s take a look at him, and the ten others that will be sharing the starting gate with him!

#1- Quarter Plan (Gdp Inc., ridden by J Stein)- Finished fifth in his last race, which came here in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap last month. It was a good showing for the 36/1 longshot, but he won’t have the weight allowance going here. Otherwise, this is not a horse with much experience running against the best, but this is a good spot for him regardless. Perhaps he can run with this crowd, and if he does, then we’ll be seeing a lot more of him over the next few months running in BC points races.

#2- Having A Blast (Mb Stables, ridden by S Ryan)- When he won the Suburban last year, it was the second time he had been in the race. In 2019, he finished fourth, and when you consider the purse differences between the two races, he only made $92.000 more with the win than he did with the fourth. Since then, he’s won two more times, with the stake win being the Grade 1 SA Handicap. But the best news for him was that he finished third, missing by two lengths in the Grade 1 Gold Cup in his last start. In 2020, he also finished third, missing by two lengths in that very race, before winning the Suburban.

#3- Insist On Beauty (Chili King Stables, ridden by L Saez)- Does not have the resume that his rivals have. Won two of this thirteen starts, and the handful of stakes that he has run in show him not being a factor, and missing the board in all of them. In his last start, he was a distant eighth in the $125.000 ungraded Blame. Surely, something has happened to give the trainer more confidence, but I’ll be looking elsewhere.

#4- A Born Dancer (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by J K Court)- Most of his career has been running in overnights, and he’s held his own pretty well. Overall, he has just three wins in 15 starts, but his good second place showing last month in the Grade 2 Brooklyn gives us more reason to be optimistic with him, than with Insist On Beauty. Still not one I am going to pick here, but I would not be shocked to see him grab a piece.

#5- Splash Mountain (John Henry, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- At this point, all you need to say is “Splash Mountain”, and everyone else in the race is going to be very mindful of where he is on the track. The career earnings for the six year old gelding are now up to over $7,200.000, and he looks for this tenth career win. He’d also love to turn the tables on Having A Blast, as he ran second to him in the Suburban last year, which is the only time that Splash Mountain has made this race part of his schedule. Won the OP Handicap in April, and has two Graded wins in his last five starts, so he is still clicking.

#6- Graveyard (Mb Stables, ridden by Ru Gonzalez)- This colt has always been able to be a factor in the races he runs in, but lately, he has particularly been hot with three wins in his last four starts. He’s been lightly raced, so that is a stretch that actually begins with the Grade 2 Marathon last year. His last start was a win, as well, taking the PIM Special. It’s true that he was dropped in class a bit, but it is good to see him back in this type of race, because he certainly can run with, and beat, these opponents.

#7- Space Commander (Nakamura Stables, ridden by V R Carrasco)- The five year old Strategic Command gelding ran second in the BC Classic, and only missed that win by a nose. He’s been able to build off of that, and would win the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup in January, and in his last race, he would win the Grade 1 Gold Cup by two lengths, earning a 103 SRF in the victory. Carrasco has been successful on him, and will be glad to be at BEL this weekend, rather than riding free track horses at PEN. Not that we don’t like seeing him there, however.  I believe this combination will click well again, and that will give Space Commander the win!

#8- Immoral (Mb Stables, ridden by E Jaramillo)- Mb Stables is certainly bringing a powerful trio to the track for the Suburban, and Immoral gives him his third good chance to win this race. It’s the 20th start for this No Doubt About It gelding, and if he wins, it would be an even 10-for-20 in his career. That’s something that he has been doing well as of late, with two victories in his last three starts. Those were big ones, too, each Grade 1’s: the Forester Turf Classic and the Makers Mark Mile! Don’t worry about those being turf races, he’s been good on the main track, too, though it has been over a year.

#9- Black And Red (Australia Wide, ridden by P Husbands)- The historically great trainer joins us again for his sixth race of the year, hoping to win for the first time in 2021. Black And Red is certainly a great horse to have in one’s barn, finishing second in the Haskell and the PA Derby last year. Then, good ol’ AW proved he can still get BC wins, when he won the BC Dirt Mile with him. That’s great! Then what? Well, we haven’t seen Black And Red much, as he only has one 2021 start, coming in February (fifth in the GP Mile). After a four month layoff, and almost eight months since the BC, can the horse tap into that form again?

#10- Ete Creek (Gdp Inc, ridden by G Saez)- Most of the success that this horse has had has been on the grass, including his one win this year, the Grade 3 Very One in February. After struggling on soft going in the Wiley, he was moved to the dirt, and has two racelines which look very different, despite similar conditions. More distance might help, and he might have a decent shot in here, but with other stars here, I’m looking elsewhere.

#11- No More Haggis (YME Stable, ridden by M E Smith)- He was here last month for the Grade 2 Brooklyn, and was fourth. Also ran in the SA Handicap three starts ago, and was distant seventh. Those are two races that see others in here come out of, but the one race in the middle was an absolute gem. At SA in April, he won the twelve furlong Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup by four lengths. That’s the race the he needs to duplicate here, and he has another similar result a little further back in the Grade 3 Valedictory, then he can surprise these. I’m not confident enough to pick it, though.

Prediction: 7-5-2-8

— NS

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES