Kilroe Mile – Grade II
SA Race #5 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
1 American Nightmare D J C Racing Stables Centeno D E 123
Ran third in a very competitive Mineshaft last time and whilst that was on the dirt he has proven himself good enough on the turf to be a real chance here. This will be his third race in 42 days so it remains to be seen how he copes with that, but he will definitely be hard fit, and I reckon he will have a great chance at his best.
2 Killer Instinct Mb Stables Franco M 123
As you would expect at HRP this great horse is proven on both surfaces, but he certainly has his best runs on the turf and ran a huge race on seasonal debut to be a close second in the Pegasus Turf. Proven at the mile he has also been runner up in two BC Turfs, so it goes without saying that he is almost certainly favorite for this race. He gets the perfect draw and reconnects with M Franco here, so it is hard to get past seeing him as the winner.
3 Misting Winning Link Stables Hernandez R M 123
Ran second in the Fourstardave Handicap last year but then was very poor in the Mint Million and the Shadwell Turf so he will need a big turnaround to be in the money today. His works tell a different story as works seem to do these days so it is not impossible, he could run well but on form at least he is a tough pick.
4 Extravagant Bigchief Stables Lopez P 123
He was a consistent three-year-old who showed plenty of promise but now he has turned four, he is, especially at this time of year up against it. He ran well enough to be fifth in the Pegasus Turf to suggest he may be keeping up with the olders, so he could be a top four chance at decent odds.
5 Boo Boo Nakamura Stables Espinoza V 123
A consistent eight race winner who may struggle at this level but certainly has a good heart and could out battle a few. His works are solid enough and the stable knows how to win big races, so he is no write off but a few here look too tough for him.
6 Neon Lightning Nakamura Stables Fresu A 123
With the two stable companions drawn next to each other there are some interesting comparisons to make. On the face of it this grade one winner of more than $1,600.000 would seem way ahead of his stable mate but in a recent work out there really wasn’t much between them. Knowing how unreliable the work out engine is however it is clear this one is the best chance the trainer has in this race.
7 Ello Santa Mb Stables Velazquez J R 123
This brilliant three-year-old turfer was favorite for the Pegasus Turf on seasonal debut but ran a bit flat to end up 11th. The big question therefore will be is this one now suffering from the four-year-old yips and today may well be the test for him. Very often these four-year-olds can start to find their form later in the year so though he certainly has the ability to win I may have to just watch him today.
8 Seven Is Lucky Mb Stables Santana R Jr 123
The seven year old had a huge season last year winning the Shadwell Turf Mile and running a close fourth in the BC Mile. Those two efforts make him a big chance today and he may be part of a big race for the trainer who has in my view, the top three in this race.
9 Moonligtonthewabash High Voltage Lezcano J 123
Won one race last year and that was a dead heat win in the BC Mile so whilst there is no doubt that at his best he could win this it is also a bit of a spaghetti and wall situation. He could win, but I cannot say with any confidence whether he will.
10 Bear Head Maxmillion Farm Dettori L 123
Good enough as a three-year-old and his comprehensive win in the Secretariat last year would give him every chance here. He was OK in the BC Mile when eighth but that was the last time we saw him so he may be a bit rusty for his seasonal debut today. The wide draw certainly won’t help, but I like the direction his works have been going in, and he may be a dark horse in this race.
11 Salah Royalty Stables Bejarano R 123
Third in the BC Dirt Mile last year the trainer rolls the dice here with this four-year-olds first ever run on grass. I have said it a million times that the surface means very little to a good horse at HRP which can be frustrating as a punter but does mean that these races become competitive regardless of a horse’s exposed ability on the surface. To advertise the unrealistic situation further this one has worked better than most of the established turf runners here so there seems no good reason why he won’t run his bets race today. The question will be can he run his best from gate eleven?
12 Brooklyn Bash First Flight Stable Laprida J 123
This almost looks like the two dirt runners have been handicapped in their first runs on the turf as they fill the two widest gates. This one was good enough on dirt to have a chance here, but the car park will test him and his running style in a very competitive field.
SUMMARY
Well, it’s a great race and so it should be as a grade one. There is a good chance that Mb Stables could get the first three here with Killer Instinct getting my nod but they won’t get it easy with several very good chances against them. The two wide gates could enjoy the first run on the turf hack, but it looks like the game has tried to handicap them to reduce the chances and they will have to be even better than they were on the dirt to overcome that handicap. There are plenty of chances here, good luck to all.
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