November 2, 2016
Before the inauguration of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as an off-chute of the Sprint itself, female runners had done quite well against their male counterparts with the likes of Safely Kept, Meafara, Desert Stormer and Xtra Heat all earning their keep against the quickest thoroughbreds in the land. But since the change in 2007 to allow fillies and mares to have their own race, an emergence of new talent has sprung up with some even better sprinters earning their keep, including Ventura, Indian Blessing, Switch, Informed Decision, Groupie Doll and Judy The Beauty.
At HRP, the winners of the F&M Sprint have been some of the best females to look through a virtual bridle with seven-year-old Darling Harbour as the first winner, followed by multiple Grade I winners Blonde Dynamite, Steel Reward and duel winner Point To Royalty after that. It hit a peak in 2012 when Horse Of The Year Avery Island won to conclude a near perfect season while last year, it was Distant Cousin who upset her older rivals on the square, with four more Grade I wins from her next six starts after that. The defending champion will be testing her mettle in the Distaff instead this year but 14 intense rivals are ready to take her place including the rest of the Top 10 in points earnings, made all the more interesting for the fact that Mischief Made and Live For Today, 12th and 15th in points respectively, cannot race because three of their stablemates are ranked ahead of them and already in the field.
1-City Bus (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Tiratzo)
One of many three-year-olds in the F&M Sprint, City Bus was excellent going short in races like the Beaumont and the Eight Belles and while she was good enough going longer, her effort in the Test was one of her best and she could be a solid factor if she handles the track. The switch to a different but better rider will be helpful and she does get an inside post but the race at CT against easier was unusual and while it earned a decent speed rating, she will have to overcome it on a bigger track to win here.
Analysis-Excellent form but faces some tough older runners
Fair Odds-8/1
2-T S Devil (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Triple K)
One of only five older runners in the 14-horse field, T S Devil was a 15-1 shot in the F&M Sprint last year but could only manage a 10th place finish at KEE and while this year has been more profitable, she enters off a pair of races well below her best and will need to really step up to hit the board here. Speed ratings have dropped and unfortunately, she might just be feeling the affects of a long campaign and even with a win going seven-furlongs at in Win-And-You’re-In at GP, this distance might not be best if she gets too far back behind a moderate pace.
Analysis-Unable to find any momentum late in her last two
Fair Odds-20/1
3-Fleeting Affair (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Fleeting Affair earned her spot in the F&M Sprint starting gate with a last-to-first score in the TC of America at KEE and with three other Graded Stakes wins this year, has to be viewed as one of the best chances to win another BC race for owner Mb Stables this weekend. Four wins from six starts going short while two of the best speed ratings in her last two starts, she has the right form and running style to win this race at seven-panels and gets a returning jockey which is crucial, especially with his knowledge of the SA oval.
Analysis-Huge win at KEE sets her up nicely for a late rally
Fair Odds-3/1
4-You Gotta Believe (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aarons Hosses)
A winner of the Grade III Victory Ride and the Grade II Prioress, You Gotta Believe preceded both of those efforts will dismal ones going seven-furlongs and from off the pace, looks to be in tough unless the pace scenario up front completely melts down. Off for two-months, she will have to be at her best since being freshened and while workouts have been stellar, they do not necessarily translate to a top effort in her first attempt against older rivals.
Analysis-Might not be best at this seven-furlong trip
Fair Odds-15/1
5-Enticing (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Heavens Own)
From supersire Commanding out of 2013 BC F&M Sprint champion Canadas Girl, Enticing is certainly that with her pedigree potential in the 2016 F&M Sprint and coming in off a closing second in the TC of America, could be another charging down the lane with plenty of chances to handle the distance. Her effort in the Winning Colors was great and she was another who did not like the muddy ground of the Test; all in all, she is good but might not quite be good enough to win this, with a solid four-year-old campaign to look forward to if she hopes to emulate her dam.
Analysis-Has the pedigree but might not have the form to win
Fair Odds-20/1
6-Queen Of Broadway (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Queen Of Broadway won four of her first five starts before being purchased by the current owner and while tough efforts in the Ballerina and the PID Masters Stakes might have toughened her up, they did not result in wins and many are looking to back a filly or mare who has proven victorious as of late. She was closer to the early fractions in her last and actually took the lead before faltering but a stalking trip from this post might be best and if she can save some ground around the turn, her jockey is as good as any at finding a lane and might have her in a good place to get the jump on her rivals.
Analysis-Fallen off form a bit but still a stalking threat
Fair Odds-12/1
7-Sweep Clean (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Manco Segundo)
Claimed for only $7.500 in May of 2015, Sweep Clean has finished first or two in her last 11 starts and as a wire-to-wire winner of the Grade III Chicago Handicap, she could be a huge wire-to-wire threat if she can set a moderate early split. She looks to be the most consistent filly in the field with speed ratings that mirror her efforts and with a good middle post, she can easily get out there and take the field as far as she can go with the knowledge that being a four-year-old will only help her chances of staying the course.
Analysis-Consistency is always important in these types of races
Fair Odds-6/1
8-Ambient (Five-year-old gray mare / Owner-Mb Stables)
Ambient broke sharply in the F&M Sprint last year and nearly stole the show at 17-1 when second-best and with that experience under her belt, coupled with a solid campaign and a much better final prep, she should be a solid contender to finish with another big cheque. An excellent runner-up effort in the Santa Monica and the Madison show that this distance is within her range and off her score in the LA Woman over this same course, there is much to like about her in a race that will decide a championship.
Analysis-Done very little wrong and has beaten many of these in the past
Fair Odds-4/1
9-Lea (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Lea has been the division leader for almost the entire season with six wins from eight starts including a seven-for-nine record going short and coming off a Grade I win in the Test and a powerful score in the PID Masters, this looks like her race to lose with the weight advantage over her older rivals. She can set the pace or sit just off the fractions, gets a great outside stall to stay in the clear and has a familiar jockey in the saddle; all factors that make her the logical choice in a field loaded from top to bottom.
Analysis-Best of the year so far and could become a champion
Fair Odds-2/1
10-Summer Sampler (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-John Henry)
Summer Sampler has been all over the place this year and got into the F&M Sprint with a win in the Raven Run two weeks ago, along with the defection of others, and while that effort might have been one of the best this year from a speed rating standpoint, she has a lot to prove if she wants to upset some very proven sprinters. She looks like a Vouvray-type who gets bounced around without any chance to settle into a groove and with so many changes in surface, distance and class, one has to wonder if this is the right spot for her, even if she did make it into the field.
Analysis-Wonder if this is the best spot for her right now
Fair Odds-25/1
11-Balais Bruit (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Balais Bruit is a Grade II winner this year coming off a third in the LA Woman but with three of her last four efforts finishing in a dead-heat for a place that was not the winner’s circle, you have to take her form with a grain of salt and look upon those close finishes as a sign that she might not be ready to win. She set the pace in both the Princess Rooney and last time at SA and failed to hold on late while other races have seen her come too late from off the pace and that lack of late momentum will be a big concern at this tricky distance against other who are proven to be better suited to it.
Analysis-Has lacked that needed response late in the lane
Fair Odds-10/1
12-Silk Houses (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Alydar Stables)
Had this race been run three months ago, Silk Houses would have been one of the top contenders and a likely favourite but a dismal effort in the Ballerina was followed up by a dismal effort in the Bloom Handicap and that has taken the shine off the rose for this improved four-year-old. A single win from seven starts will inflate her odds and she really has shown little as of late compared to others, making her a longshot from this post unless she finds some get-up in the final furlong.
Analysis-Wheels have come off lately and that makes her tough to back
Fair Odds-30/1
13-Asclepios Trail (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Bigking)
Asclepios Trail failed to gain any late ground in the Test but handled older rivals at the same distance one start later in the Ballerina at SAR to earn her way into the F&M Sprint off that single start. Cheques in races like the CCA Oaks and the Beldame might have pointed her briefly to the Distaff but she finds herself here and like others, the question is whether this race is really for her, especially facing rivals she have been likely to start in this race all season long.
Analysis-Finds herself here with lacking form but past success
Fair Odds-20/1
14-Laffin Diplomat (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
With one win, way back in January, from eight starts, and the outside gate in a full field of 14, it is hard to imagine how Laffin Diplomat will win the F&M Sprint but if she does, it will be at a huge price and without the backing of this handicapper. Beaten by many of these in races like the Eight Belles, Ballerina and TC of America, she will have to overcome a lot to hit the board and with her current form, it is just too tough to see that happening.
Analysis-Longshot gets a bad outside draw
Fair Odds-40/1
Overall
Lea has been the top three-year-old filly sprinter at HRP this season and her win in the muddy Test and the fast PID Masters Stakes makes her the top choice in the Grade I BC F&M Sprint, as she looks to complete a huge year and earn a championship in the process. Fleeting Affair has been her stablemate for a couple of months but could also become a champion with her fourth Graded Stakes win in her last five starts while Ambient was second in this race last year and could move up one placing to complete a clean sweep for her owner, who won this race in 2013 with Canadas Girl; the dam of longshot Enticing in this field.
Prediction
Win-Lea (2/1)
Place-Fleeting Affair (3/1)
Show-Ambient (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: BC 2015-17, THE BREEDERS CUP
