June 9, 2016
The best three-year-old fillies at HRP will be running at BEL in the Grade I Acorn but almost as lucrative and seemingly easier is a victory in the WO Oaks Stakes on Sunday afternoon and for many of these fillies, it is a chance to step forward in stakes company with a mammoth $500.000 in prize money on the line. Run since 1956 and for much of that time over nine-furlongs, it has become a final F&M prep for the Queen’s Plate and has been won by some of the luminaries in Canadian racing including Wonder Where, Flaming Page, Lauries Dancer, Classy ‘n Smart, La Lorgnette, Dance Smartly, her daughter Dancethruthedawn, Sealy Hill and Inglorious among them.
At HRP, Rhythm Line was really the first big winner with scores in four Grade I races as well as the 2010 Oaks, while Mels Silver Crush was a SA Oaks and Ashland winner before taking the 2011 edition wire-to-wire. Hehehe was not highly regarded in 2012 but still won anyway and came back to the first Phipps Handicap offered at the huge $1000.000 purse, with owner Mb Stables taking the last three runnings with three very different runners in Carnegie Steel, Distinguished and Angelic Appeal. This year, they are poised for a four consecutive triumph with a Grade II winner at the FG but she has never raced at WO and will be facing proven winners over the course, something that is always an asset when looking at a field trying to step up in class.
1-Ena Barb (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Canadian Racing)
For all the success owner Canadian Racing has had at WO, including two meet titles back in 2011 and 2012, they have never won the Oaks or even had a top three placing; all their hopes in 2016 rest with Ena Barb, a stakes winner in the Fury last time stretching out to a route distance for the first time. Speed ratings have been improving to a career-best mark from her last race but the distance is the real question mark and pedigree might be your best gauge of success, since she is out of a multiple Grade I and BC Classic winner from a dam who won the KY Oaks among her six career victories.
Analysis-Very intriguing stretching out with her pedigree
Fair Odds-4/1
2-Love In The Mist (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Love In The Mist was so well regarded after winning the Grade II Alexandria at FG that she was actually made the very tepid favourite in the KY Oaks but for the second straight start, showed absolutely nothing and comes into this Oaks with much to prove to her connections. While the entire field at CD was close at the finish line, this filly only had enough to pass a single rival at any stage and while she has gone this distance before, it will not be enough to make her a logical choice, even with the easier field.
Analysis-Drops in class but that might not be enough
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Mint Condition (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
Mint Condition broke her maiden at SA and was certainly not disgraced when a close fifth facing tough Grade I company in the SA Oaks but it is that absolutely decimating victory over the WO mud that will make many back her on Sunday, especially if the track comes up anywhere less than fast. She is probably one of the few who will go to the lead and the advantage is that she has been this distance before and won, which is incredibly potent in a race that has had numerous wire-to-wire winners in recent years.
Analysis-Will try to replicate that huge effort over a fast track
Fair Odds-3/1
4-Panther Prowl (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)
Panther Prowl was a N2L winner at WO in her third career start but has yet to taste victory since and coming into the Oaks, was a tiring third in the Honey Ryder and will be probably be using this as a stepping stone to a race on the turf like the Wonder Where. For now, she finds herself with the chance to close up for a minor award and at the best, sit in a stalking position and hope that others do not get the distance as well as her.
Analysis-Has not been good at this level in recent starts
Fair Odds-12/1
5-Pinot Gris (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
After a failed attempt at making the KY Oaks, Pinot Gris was aimed for this race with starts in the Lady Angela and Fury going shorter but two completely different running styles resulted in efforts that we probably below what her connections wanted to see. From this post, it looks like her best option will be to take back from the outside, hope that a speed duel emerges up front and try to close sharply into the pace like she did last time, with the extra two-furlongs assisting her in closing the gap on the early leaders.
Analysis-Aims for some level of consistency in her running style
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Will Not Collapse (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Will Not Collapse is a maiden winner who has never been this far before and with her only route effort being a dismal attempt in the mud at GG, she has to be considered the longest shot to hit the board in the WO Oaks unless she finds some sort of speed late in the lane. Figures are much lower than others in the field and she does not have a published work since LS, where she was second of three in a minor allowance; on class alone, she is below the best and will be pegged as such until she proves otherwise.
Analysis-Maiden winner has a longshot chance
Fair Odds-50/1
Overall
The 2016 rendition of the $500.000 WO Oaks is not the strongest we have ever seen but there is still plenty to race for and Mint Condition has to be viewed as the slight favourite off that blowout win in preparation, especially since many of the top CA-bred fillies are not here. One who does show up is Lady Angela winner Ena Barb, who stands a huge chance on performance and especially on a stunning route pedigree, while Love In The Mist is a Grade II winner in the US who ships up for her first start over the strip and could be the winner if she runs back to her best earlier in the campaign.
Prediction
Win-Mint Condition (3/1)
Place-Ena Barb (4/1)
Show-Love In The Mist (8/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
