BC Fillies & Mares Turf – Grade I
11/5/2016 17:15 11/1/2016 3:00 SA Race #12 1 1/4m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Broomsticks Copy, trained by Drabfantasy
Last years winner has been suffering from the four year olds curse for most of the year but as the year moves on the four year olds are clawing back the difference and whilst they still have to give the three year olds weight the impost hasnt been proving so great in recent weeks. She is once again hitting form at the right time with a grade three win back in August followed by a decent effort in the Mabee Stakes and then a seasons best effort in The First Lady last time out. Flying late over an inadequate mile she was only a half length behind Christine and All Eyes Ahead at the end and that was an encouraging effort. Drawn in a great alley she would be a popular winner but winning this race back to back is something thats never been done before and would take a huge effort.
2 Swarley Kapai, trained by Grimley
Three year olds have been pretty dominant all year and with the 3Lb’s weight pull they again will be hard to beat. This one has been running really well against her age group which is no mean feat and comes here with a very real chance if she stays the trip. Early in the year she was doing well on dirt placing at graded level but it was when she was set to turf that her season really took off. She started off in The Lake George making all for a one length win in a smart time and then backed that up in the Lake placid when coming from a loose stalk. In her last start she went to the front again but didnt last home and ended up second to Congratulations. The key for her over this extended trip will be how much energy she can save without getting too far back but with a decent run there is no reason she wont be in it at the end.
3 Lucky You, trained by Rouge River Stables
Behind Swarley Kapai in The lake Placid she then failed in The Rodeo Drive before a decisive front running win in the QE 11 Challenge Cup. A win in the grade one Diana in July before all that suggests she is a little inconsistent and that is what her biggest problem will be in this very competitive race. She will need to be right on song to win this race and you have to take on trust that she is in the right mood. She is working nicely and has the age allowance on her side and at her best will be competitive.
4 Shekinah, trained by Blushing Meadows
Kept on pretty well to be third behind Lucky You in The QE11 and has been running well all season against top class company. She will lap up this extra trip and if she reproduces her finish in The Pucker Up Stakes then she too will be competitive. My only fear for her will be her ability to quicken at the end of the race and i wonder whether she is truly a grade one filly but of all the three year olds she should see the trip out well and could well be in the frame for some purse money.
5 Ghost Runner, trained by Pumpkin Racing
Another three year old she won the BEL Oaks from the 14 gate by making all and clinging on gamely by a head. That was a huge effort but she couldnt repeat it when running second in the DMR Oaks next time. She had a go on the dirt last time running well to be a close fourth in the Cotillion and is another piece in an intriguing puzzle. With plenty of on pace runners it may be a race of attrition for the front runners and this one has guts in spades so there is no reason to doubt her ability to be there at the sharp end.
6 Volare, trained by Axeman
This grand old mare has been taking on the boys recently and up until the Pacific Classic had been running with tonnes of merit. A mare that loves the extreme trips it is surprising that she has only attempted this race once when a fast finishing seventh back in 2013. Her efforts in the AP St leger and The Northern Dancer were huge running on for second in both cases but her bubble burst in the Pacific Classic last time running out of the first three for more than a year. You have to trust that that effort wasnt the famous HRP sudden decline but if you do then this mare will certainly be closing hard at the end and would be a popular winner.
7 Get The Girl, trained by Downwind Stables
Bought from Australia Wide for $200 she ran pretty well in handicap company before a strong win in the grade two Canadian Stakes. That was a big effort from on the pace but with so many on pace runners she may find it harder to dictate like she did that day. With only 7 lifetime starts she is one of the most inexperienced runners but with five wins she is definitely no slouch and will give her owner a great show in a competitive race.
8 Christine, trained by John Henry
This mares form is up and down like a hoares draws but she is a dual grade one winner this year and must be respected. She gained a massive win in the Just A Game coming from a wide gate with a huge late run to pip Attraction by a head. She failed on the dirt next time and then carried a big weight into third in the Ballston Handicap. In her last start she ran on the pace proving once again what a massive influence the draw is at HRP and came back when headed to beat All Eyes Ahead in the Grade one First Lady. She normally runs on pace but with all the pace in this race she may get taken back which could be the key to her winning. Once more we are left to the trainers decisions on tactics and the race engines decisions as to which Christine turns up today.
9 Mo Ki Missy, trained by Spankys Barn
This three year old has really taken off this year winning a little allowance back in March to taking three graded stakes in a row in her last three starts. Her victory in the Rodeo Drive last time was one of the most impressive wins by any horse at HRP this year and it is hard to see her eaten if she reproduces that effort. Her ability to handle this sort of draw was demonstrated in The Beverly D the time before that as she again won with plenty in hand by running on the pace. My one fear for this potential champion is all the pace that is inside her as they could all burn each other out but that fear is one she has put away pretty emphatically already this year so she will start favourite and deservedly so.
10 Attraction, trained by Mm Racing
This 2014 champion was huge that year taking four grade one wins and whilst she hasnt repeated that sort of form since she has been very close to the best filly on the site for almost two years now. seventh in last years race after just the one grade one win she was lightly raced as a four year old which probably helped her longevity. She started off the year in great form taking the grade one Wiley and then the Diana in July and up to that point she looked like she was right back to her 2014 form. The doubters started talking after her fourth in The Beverly D and those voices grew louder in the Rodeo Drive last time when she was a lack lustre fifth. It is always worrying when an older horse loses their form on HRP as its almost impossible for them to come back, i hope thats not the case with this great mare but it certainly has to be at the back of your mind.
11 Smokin Nebulae, trained by Drabfantasy
Has been close up in all her races this term but has consistently found one or two too good and from this tough draw that may be the case again. Good seconds in The Lake George and The Lake Plaid followed a win in the Eatontown Stakes but probably her best career start was last time out when a fast finishing second in the grade one Taylor Stakes. Her best chance may come with rain and in such a stellar field she would do well to be there at the end.
12 Dragonville, trained by Drabfantasy
This late staring filly has been the nearly filly of the season running some terrific races but not winning since April. Breaking her maiden in the garde 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes and then backing up in the Providenca Stakes she has never run in any race that isnt black type and until recently hadnt been beaten more than a couple of lengths either. Beaten a head and a neck in the grade one BEL Oaks and the Gamely she was third in both the Diana and the DMR Oaks as well and it seemed only a matter of time before her luck changed and she burst into the big time. In her last two starts when a distant third in The Rodeo Drive and sixth in The Taylor Stakes she was uncharacteristically uncompetitive and whilst there seems no reason to think she is cooked she may be feeling the effects of a long season.
13 Congratulations, trained by Blushing Meadows
Everywhere you look in this field you see grade one winners with winning chances and even out here in the cheap seats you can find two of the best winning chances in the race. The winner of the grade one Gamely Stakes she was flying late when fifth in the BEL Oaks before again finishing strongly when second in The Beverly D. She bounced back to winning form last time out in The Sands Point beating Swarly Kapai by a length last time and with some very nice works to her name she is no forlorn hope even from ths horror draw. I am thinking the speed horses may cut each others throats so as long as the wide speed push doesnt send this one flying up front we could see her to advantage later in the race.
14 Tropics, trained by Australia Wide
This lightly raced filly really has got the worst of the draw especially as she seems to like being on the pace. She stalked the speed before a decent win in the grade one Flower Bowl last time out and that sort of form will see her go close again today. My big worry for her is all the pace inside her will make it very tough for her if she tries to go forward and that move may lose her the race. As usual the race engine and tactics may be the key to this race
SUMMARY
Wow what a race, two previous champions and plenty of wannabe’s. It no surprise with HRP’s insistence on early maturing that 10 of the 14 runners are three year olds but the 4 older horses in the race are probably the best of the rest so it may be a fairer race than we have seen all year. Of the older horses they all have question marks over depreciation so it’s probably safer to stick with the three year olds and the obvious choice is Mo Ki Missy who was huge last time out. Of the other three year olds Congratulations and Lucky You could run big races and of the older horses i think Christine may be the best hope.
Categories: THE BREEDERS CUP
