The MTH Oaks (Grade 3)- $250.000 Purse
MTH- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
July 29, 2023

The highlight of the day at MTH on Saturday will be the 18th running of the MTH Oaks, sending three-year-old fillies a little more than a mile over the main track. It is a race that debuted in 2006, and up until last year, saw its purse range from between $100.000 and $200.000. Last year was the first time that it ran for its present level of $250.000. Some past winners of this race include Roundheel, Broomsticks N Booty, and the great La Terrifiant. The 2018 race that La Terrifiant won will go down as her final main track victory, unless of course, she returns to it and wins on the surface again. Last year’s race was won by Nakamura Stables and his filly, Dominance. She is still active and running decently, but up to this point has not been as good as a four-year-old as she was in 2022. That trainer will have one of our eight horses going to post, so let’s meet her and the rest of them now!

#1- Blind Appeal (Nakamura Stables, ridden by El Gonzalez)- Either this horse wins, or she is nowhere to be found. In seven races, she has won four times, including the first three races of her career. This May, she picked up her signature win to date, in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan at PIM. All of that is great, but then you have the other three starts, where she finished near the back. Certainly, she has a good shot here, but I would be hesitant putting down money on a horse like this unless she was at least 6/1. Not sure she will be here.

#2- Avengement (Axeman, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Picked up by the trainer in private sales for $25.000, and she would be regularly entered in TX-bred stakes after the purchase. Avengement stepped up in those, winning two, and hitting the board in all five of them. From there, Axeman, moved her away from Texas, and did attempt the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks at SA. While that did not go well, her track record certainly shows that she should get at least one more chance at this level, and here she is in the MTH Oaks. Rotated wins and non-wins most of her career. That’s bad news here, though.

#3- Shadow State (Smokey Stover, ridden by I Castillo)- Started the year off very well, getting wins in both the Grade 3 Honeybee, a race that the trainer has fared very well in, overall, as well as the Grade 2 FG Oaks a month later. Those victories would not only send her to the KYO but made her the post time favorite for the race. Unfortunately for the trainer, she could only finish in the middle of the field in that one. Ran in the Acorn, and finished fifth, but despite being out of the money in each of them, it’s not as if she ran poorly. Second at the muddy IND Oaks earlier this month and should be a contender here.

#4- Calm Fury (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- The Fire N Fury filly had a strong juvenile season, which saw her run in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and pick up a second-place finish. She would have seemed destined for a big year this year, but that has not really happened, as Calm Fury struggled in the KYO preps, not earning an additional point as a three-year-old for that race. Since then, the trainer has backed off her placement, being able to focus on other talented fillies in place of her. Wasn’t bad in her last start, the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, but even with that third place, she needs to show a little more here.

#5- Victorious Secret (Acber Farms, ridden by L Dettori)- A winner of three races out of her seven starts, highlighted by taking the $250.000 NM Breeders Oaks at SUN in late March. She’s raced about half of her career with that condition and fared well in them but has also been able to step up into unrestricted company. At CD in May, she may not have cashed a check in the Eight Belles, but her fifth place finish had her within a length of the winner, and then a month later, she came from well off the pace to get up for third in the Acorn. Dettori was aboard there and will look to repeat that effort.

#6- Chai Mom (Riggins Racing, ridden by G W Corbett)- The MTH Oaks will be the first race for Chai Mom in the Riggins Racing silks, and she has not been with the trainer long. As recently as Monday, she changed hands in private sales for $200.000, and the trainer is going to see what he has in her But. Chai Mom is lightly raced, having made just five starts thus far. She’s won three times, and that includes her most recent race, the Grade 3 Selene Stakes where she went wire to wire in the victory. That’s been a common tactic for her, and given her short amount of time with Riggins, I’d be surprised to see a different tactic for this one. But you never know, of course.

#7- Creepy Lady Party (Martyparty, ridden by A Ayuso)- Earlier this month, Creepy Lady Party made her stake debut after a productive career in overnights saw two wins in six starts. However, the IA Oaks never went well for her, starting at the back of the five-horse field, and then only passing one, being beaten by six lengths. Not a lot of time has gone by since that race, which leads me to believe that the trainer is confident that he knows why it happened, and that it will not happen again. I’d expect her to be better, but she is still up against the toughest field of her life right here.

#8- Mo Temptation (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by S Elliott)- With one exception, Mo Temptation has spent her career sprinting, and she was able to get some pretty good results in them. Her last two starts, which are also the only other times she has had Lasix, saw her win the $150.000 Jersey Girl, and then narrowly miss out on a win in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, before settling for second. The one time she did go a mile, she ran a solid race, so if the Lasix has made this much of a difference, it’s a good test to see what she can do in a route again. Wish I could see a more recent mile work.

Prediction: 3-5-6-1

— NS

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES