The San Felipe Stakes (KYD) (Grade 2)- $400.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
March 11, 2017
With 50 KYD points on the line for the winner and the big day getting closer and closer, a field of eleven is set to go to post for a shot at those crucial points. Last year, the race was won by The Perfect Day, and the winning trainer decided he could not have a TC hopeful in his barn and sold him six days later to Pan Farms. Up until last month, he had not won a race since then. Among those he beat that day was BC Classic winner Atomic Twister. The best performance in the KYD by a winner of the San Felipe was way back in the first ever running of the race, when Habanero finished fourth in the big race in May. He would eventually go on to win the BEL. Looking further, we can see that many San Felipe winners have had double digit finishes in the KYD. Twice, the San Felipe winner never made it to the KYD, with the most recent example being 2015 winner Much Notoriety from Mb Stables, who was likely kept out due to the limitations on trainer entries for the race. In 2017, will history repeat itself, or will our winner here finally be a KYD winner, or at least one that can hit the board in the KYD? Here is a look at our field!
#1- Romper Stomper (Australia Wide, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- The trainer looks to win his second San Felipe in a row, but if so it will be with a horse that has not done much of anything just yet. That’s fine, and as we know Australia Wide is very patient with his young horses. He’s only raced twice, but has visited the winner’s circle each time. Never raced more then five and a half furlongs, either, but works do point to optimism that he will be just fine with here. Adds bute for the race.
#2- Mancini (Our Athletes, ridden by C S Nakatani)- This Pink Panther gelding has been very consistent in his career, with all but one career race seeing a top three finish. Second has been his favorite spot, with back to back runner ups in the Grade 3 Hutcheson down at GP, then here for the Lewis Stakes last month where he lost to Positive Thinking. If Mancini remembers that race, all he has to do is look next door to be motivated for redemption. The margin between them was a slim .04 seconds that day.
#3- Positive Thinking (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Last month, he won the Grade 3 Lewis, in a tight photo over Mancini, and was quite the underdog to do so. He had only raced twice leading up to that, and failed in each of his maiden attempts. The trainer was not deterred by that, saw his name and did what it said when putting him into the Lewis, and that confidence was rewarded. This race is obviously pivotal to see how he follows it up. A victory here would be impressive but warrant strong consideration to be one of the three the trainer chooses for the KYD, even with his other powerhouses.
#4- Stanford (Alydar Stables, ridden by G S Stevens)- This might be the last chance for Stanford along the KYD trail, as the time is now to step up. He closed out 2016 pretty well, but is still looking for that first stake win. The TC chase has not gone his way this year, placing ninth by 6 lengths in the Jerome, and then 7th by 5 lengths in the Lewis. The two to his inside were the top two in that race, so has Stanford made up those five lengths in a month? He’s been gelded since then, and we’ll see if that’s all it takes. If he wins, geld an underachiever in your barn in appreciation.
#5- Mucho Cruncher (Aer Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- The gelding has looked good in his two races this year now that he is able to run more then a mile. He won the Mucho Macho Man in January, which while not a graded event is still a competitive race. Though if that was not enough to get your attention, he ran a strong second last month to Profound Connection, who I feel is the KYD favorite right now. Among those he beat in that event include Ginger Haggis, the reigning BC Juvenile champion. I’m looking for him to build off that race and run a big one here, if not actually win the race. Going back to December, he has some sharp work times and looks like one that belongs in the KYD.
#6- Sonar (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Consistency has been the name of the game, finishing as part of the exacta in all six of his career runs. Four of them were wins, including the $125.000 Bull Page Stakes for ON-breds in October. His two graded attempts thus far have been the second place finishes, but you still have to like the way he ran in the Grade 2 San Vicente, given he lost by a nose. That seven furlongs is the longest he has ever run to this point, but longer work times simply show that he has been waiting for this moment to go longer.
#7- Above The Law (Mb Stables, ridden by J Talamo)- The third of the trainer’s entries is a two-time winner in five career starts. His biggest win to date was the Sham Stakes, a Grade 3 event held at this race track. None of that is the story for this one though, since he is coming off a true head scratcher of a performance, showing that poor races can happen to everyone. He was a distant seventh in the Grade 3 El Camino, and only managed an 86 SRF for that effort. It seems like a throw out for sure, but you never can tell.
#8- Shen Valley (Keikowin Racing, ridden by F Prat)- I covered a lot of his races as a two year old, and it was nice to see him finish off the year with relative success, placing fourth in the BC Juvenile. He made his three year old debut last month out at GP, and had a seventh place finish to show for it, never being a factor in that race. It looks like a few may have caught up to where he had been as a two year old. If Shen Valley is going to continue to be in the conversation as a strong KYD contender, a big race here is a must.
#9- Finished Laffin (Buddhabase, ridden by D Moran)- This Die Laffin colt is consistently able to get in the top three, as he has only failed to hit the board once in his eight race career. None of those races are at the graded level, but he has earned his ticket here, faring very well in good ungraded stakes. One of those was his most recent race, the $250.000 CA Cup Derby, right here, for CA-breds. He also ran a strong second in the $350.000 RP Springboard Mile, to Noble Crusader, who has gone on to bigger things since then. Finished Laffin is one of my top choices here.
#10- French E (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by D Moran)- Not much to talk about other then potential with this Gsin colt. French E has won two of four races, but neither are at the stake level. His debut win came in his third start in a maiden claimer, where everyone had a chance at him. He proceeded to destroy that field. There is plenty of talent here, he’s simply untested at this level. Looks like he may need to improve a little more to have a shot here, but you never know!
#11- Indiana Jones (John Henry, ridden by R J Albarado)- On the outside, Indiana Jones looks to follow up a good looking second place run last month to now current stablemate Made To Sin, in the Holy Bull. Prior to that, he had shown promise running in ON-bred stakes, including earning a win in the $250.000 Cup And Saucer Stakes at WO. After purchasing him for $150.000, John Henry moved him out of the statebred ranks, but they may have needed a race to get comfortable first. Looks like he should be one of the favorites in this field, just as long as this post does not provide that much of a hindrance. His race may be won or lost in the opening furlongs with the way things go in our virtual world.
Prediction: 5-9-2-11
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
