9/19/21

  4   WO   Natalma Stakes (GI) [BC]

        $400.000         2yoF        1m    Turf        120lbs

North of the border we go to look at a fine group of freshmen fillies set to go a flat mile on the WO grass with a nice purse in the Natalma Stakes (GI).  This is an interesting race as almost half of the field is still maidens and that’s a big un-heard of in a GI race like this.  But, we see how it goes, and I’ve taken the obvious, putting Mb Stables and I Love Me on top here.  She has been solid, breaking maiden then a near-miss in that stakes in SoCal.  That’s enough to tip my scale in this one.  Let’s go towards the outside and give our only stakes winner, Halls Cafeteria, a big chance.  She broke maiden then won a stakes over this course, so I think you have to give her serious attention to be in contention.  Lake Gunn is another that certainly seemed to enjoy moving over to the lawn, taking a MSW race at DMR, winning by daylight.  Another like that should make her tough.

You know me and these baby races…  so grab a cold-snack and let’s get down to the rail for another big race.   

Here’s The Field –

She’s still a maiden, but has been close in all starts, a trio of thirds and a fourth, all at the MSW level.  Still, this is GI company and I have to give some others a nod over her.  She did work over the surface, so they were aiming at something here.

Comes from the big barn and has a nice resume where she’s never been worse than third.  Broke maiden two back at DMR, then just missed a nose in the Bolton Landing at SAR.  She’s shown that turf is certainly something she loves, so I’d give her another big shot to be a major factor today. 

Was sixth at BTP in her debut, so this is certainly jumping into the deep end of the pool.  That was on the grass, and she just kind of gave an even effort so… I have to go in a different direction today. 

Blew them away on the wet GP grass where she broke maiden by six.  She didn’t do much in her debut at EMD, but maybe the med add, move to the grass and longer distance was the ticket… or is she a wet track specialist?

Got the job done on the DMR grass last out, going 5f vs. MSW company.  Moves up to the mile distance, but she looks like the type that will love going longer and longer.  Only her fourth start, so I think she is still improving as well, and should be in the thick of things here today. 

Broke maiden last out, getting the job done at FP vs. MSW and that was at a flat mile, so she’s shown that she can carry her speed a distance.  This is her first start on the weeds, and it’s a big step from MSW at FP to top-end graded horses in this one. 

Opened up down the lane to get home by four vs. Cal-bred MSW at DMR in her most recent.  She’s been 1-2-3 in her three starts, seemed to love the grass and the longer distance, so make sure you use her on all of your tickets today.  She could be the one to beat. 

Another maiden and she did just miss at EMD vs. MSW types, then was third at ELP vs same.  Still, she’s never seen the grass, hasn’t won… I have to look at some others. 

She’s two for two on the grass including a nice stakes win over this course in the Catch A Glimpse where she was challenged down the lane but showed some real heart to win by a nose.  This is a bit longer, so does she keep that speed going or does she try to come from a bit farther back.  She’s nice and has to be given a serious look. 

Another from the maiden ranks and this one has just missed in her last two, both runner-up efforts, one at BEL on the grass and the other at ELP going a mile.  She had the lead in that BEL race, and was closing down going a distance last out… who do we get here?

COZMAN   2 / 9 / 7                 Willie’s Green Card       5 / 2 / 9

Categories: BC 2021-2023, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP