July 30, 2016

Very few horses win stakes races back-to-back at HRP and even fewer wins them three years in a row but a mare is looking to do that Sunday in the Grade III Royal North Stakes and has a very good chance against six solid turf sprinters. Six-furlongs on the WO turf is a tricky distance with the wide and sweeping far turn and only two of these runners come out of a race over the course, meaning that it could come down to who knows the turf best and can handle it in the crucial and grueling final furlong.

1-Laffin All The Way (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Laffin All The Way has won more than half of her 16 career starts and owns five wins from seven starts on the grass, leading owner Night Rider Stables to try her hand at the WO turf despite a pair of losses against similar at KEE and SA. This six-furlong distance should hit her right between the eyes and she comes in with a blazing five-furlong workout in preparation, making her a solid contender from the inside but without a ton of early speed to get her out of any early trouble.

Analysis-No early speed but that should be no problem against this field
Fair Odds-4/1

2-Corruption (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Bushview)

Claimed for $50.000 off a five-for-six streak against higher claiming and allowance company, Corruption was excellent in a blanket finish going shorter at PIM in her last start and gets the added furlong to stretch her legs and really make a solid late impact. It is tough to get a gauge on how good she is with that modest speed rating but the thing to remember is the distance and if she can sit behind sharp splits, she has just as much chance as anyone to close and start her stakes career off on the right foot.

Analysis-Gets some extra distance and that will be key

Fair Odds-10/1

3-Kettle (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Stockjock)

Kettle has never faced a field of this caliber and only holds a maiden claiming win and a N2L at CD going five-furlongs and is now asked to stretch out in distance and maintain her speed that extra furlong over an unforgiving course. If she goes too quick up front or takes any kind of pressure, it will prove too much for her and on paper, she looks to be overmatched against horses who know this turf all too well.

Analysis-Big jump in class means big price

Fair Odds-50/1

4-Taco Belle (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Lemax Farms)

Taco Belle was a great winner of the Grade III Las Cienegas at SA back in April but showed nothing on a firm turf at WO in the Nassau and will hope to handle a shorter distance much better in her second start over the track. She is a much better suited to going this type of trip and has worked well in the interim but the question is going to be early speed and while she might be facing easier rivals, it will still require her to get going around the turn and handle the long stretch.

Analysis-Much better equipped to handle this short distance
Fair Odds-15/1

5-Rip Snortin (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)

Rip Snortin has been campaigned as a turf router with multiple Graded Stakes wins and almost $450.000 in career earnings but she turns back the distance for the Royal North with the hope of being able to last all the way to the wire. She gave up the lead late in both the Santa Ana and the Beaugay then failed to make any headway at all at outrageous odds in the Dance Smartly so this might be the best course of action to get her back into good form, with a chance for her to show some speed and really zip home late.

Analysis-The cutback in distance might be enough to spark some speed

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Applauding (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Coming into MTH on a four race winning streak and a sharp score over older mares in the Sidney at CD, Applauding was well backed in the Honey Bee but ran into the undefeated Quarter Til Mardi and without that rival here, can try her best to take them gate-to-wire again and regain some of her confidence. Her speed ratings are some of the best in the field and she certainly knows how to handle this ground and this class so look for an improved effort if she can set a modest opening split, with others breathing down her neck as the main danger.

Analysis-Tackles older runners but has done it and won before
Fair Odds-6/1

7-Natural Flower (Six-year-old black mare / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Natural Flower is the two-time defending champion in the Royal North and after winning this race by a nose in 2014 and nearly a length in 2015, looks to be even better in 2016 off a huge win in the License Fee and a come-from-behind score in the Intercontinental, both over very different BEL turf courses. Her speed ratings are the best in the race, she gets a clear and unbiased outside draw and has sizzling works coming in; all in all, the credentials of a six-year-old who might just win this a few more times before her career is done.

Analysis-Easily in the best form of her career and looks for a three-peat

Fair Odds-Even

Overall

Natural Flower is as close to a lock as you can be in the Grade III Royal North Stakes, as the six-year-old mare comes in with better form than she did last year and faces a field that is simply not as good as she has faced in the past. Laffin All The Way is an excellent filly with multiple stakes wins but has not handled open company as well as her outside rival while Applauding could find her way to a good place on the grass and looks to have a hold on this niche division off a series of good turf efforts including a sharp third at MTH.

Prediction

Win-Natural Flower (Even)

Place-Laffin All The Way (4/1)

Show-Applauding (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES