November 26, 2015

Thanksgiving Weekend is really the last great chance for horses to shine at the highest level and those looking to solidify or bolster their championship credentials come out for the key Grade I races, and none is more important than the Cigar Mile Handicap, which features the reigning Horse Of The Year and a three-year-old filly who could thrust herself into the lead in her division with a surprise victory. One of the few top-level races named for a horse, it has been a staple of New York racing since 1988 and has been won by Forty Niner, the immortal Cigar, Congaree, Discreet Cat and Flat Out, just to name a few, while at HRP, the list is too incredible to even begin. The first three winners all won more than $4,000.000 each in their careers, owner South Beach Racing got their only Grade I win with Rambo Be Good in 2009 and Super Sexy Sanny got his biggest win two years ago and is still knocking heads with top rivals at the age of six. Now, the onus falls on some of the biggest names in the sport including a true star of racing, who is looking to finally come through with the big win he has been looking for all season and possibly, end his career with a bang before heading to the breeding shed.

1-Brutal (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Purchased for a massive $250.000 with eyes on the KYD, Brutal never made it to the big dance but is a Grade III winner and after just missing in the Phoenix at KEE behind Chit Chat, who just missed in the BC Sprint, he stretches out to his preferred one-mile distance and could be sitting a nice inside trip behind outside speed. Unfortunately, three-year-olds have never really been a big hit in the Cigar Mile and he might not even be the best of the division in this race; that being said, he does sport a triple-digit speed rating that few others have and could be sitting on a big effort if his bullet workouts are any indication.

Analysis-Inside runner needs to find room to close

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Niagra (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

With a win in the Cigar Mile, Niagra would be become the first entry into the Top Ten in Career Earnings since 2012, and with the fewest number of starts and wins, and the cut back to a flat-mile will certainly look to be in his favour since has been unable to close out victories all season long. He has been second by a nose or neck in three Grade I events this year and that has cost him nearly $1000.000 in earnings but with regular jockey J L Ortiz in the saddle, and only 121-pounds to carry, he certainly ranks as the looming favourite in a race that would prove himself as one of the best horses we have seen in quite a while.

Analysis-Hard luck has befallen him all year and this is redemption

Fair Odds-Even

3-Sannys On Fire (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Lightly raced with only six starts, all since April of this year, Sannys On Fire was a sharp allowance winner at CD back in September but unable to handle tougher rivals in the Fayette at KEE and now, steps up even higher in hopes that one-mile will be his saving grace. Speed ratings are below what is usually needs to win these types of events and his best efforts have been on the lead throughout; while that has been good in this race before, it will be tough to maintain when the closers get going and the fear is that he will be swallowed up and not have any response to the pressure.

Analysis-Faces a big test in only his seventh career start

Fair Odds-12/1

4-Team Nebraska (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Downwind Stables)

One of the better juvenile fillies last season, Team Nebraska has not seen the winner’s circle since taking the Grade I Las Virgenes way back in January and while she has garnered cheques in both the Alabama and the BC Distaff, this looks to be a big jump up to face older males and if she wins, it will rank as one of the biggest efforts for a three-year-old filly in HRP history. Her speed ratings are solid, she finally gets a small field and she seems to enjoy the one-mile distance, all factors that could see her post a top three finish and quite possibly, contend for the win.

Analysis-Would be monumental if she won

Fair Odds-4/1

5-West Northwest (Five-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)

Despite facing much easier company in his career, West Northwest has still managed to win as many races as anyone in the field this year and now, has a big chance to step up and score the biggest event of his career in the Cigar Mile. A ten-length romp at AP prompted a big auction purchase and he backed that up with a solid win at KEE without blinkers and he will race without that equipment once again, which might allow him to settle into a nice groove down the backstretch and save enough for a big run down the lane.

Analysis-Makes an ambitious leap to this level

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Roxys Triple Crown (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

The second entrant from Aer Stables draws the outside gate in a field of six for the Cigar Mile and in Roxys Triple Crown, we find a Grade III winning sprinter who just missed in the Longacres Mile back in August but who could be right there if he gets a pace to stalk. He has already had a good season and faces a majority of three-year-old rivals and as one of the few coming in off a victory, his confidence will be high and he would not be a surprise to finish with another good placing to cap off his campaign.

Analysis-Solid winner last time out needs to get that final furlong

Fair Odds-5/1

Overall

With the big horses already put away for the season, it is up to Niagra to pick up the mantle this Thanksgiving weekend and in the Grade I Cigar Mile, could put all doubters to rest if he can run to his electrifying brilliance. He faces a modest group of mostly three-year-olds, led by a Grade I winning filly, and that should make him a heavy favourite with Team Nebraska the second choice based on her record and Roxys Triple Crown the third choice off his win in the Bold Ruler at BEL last time out.

Prediction

Win-Niagra (Even)

Place-Team Nebraska (4/1)

Show-Roxys Triple Crown (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES