5/23/2020

2 MTH    The MTH (GIII)

   $150.000    3yo&Up    1 1/8m  Turf            3yo 117lbs  Older 124 lbs  +penalties

We continue at the Jersey shore and beautiful MTH racetrack for the historical MTH Stakes (GIII).  We have a nice group of nine, including four sophomores trying older horses, so this should be an interesting race. The weight factor could be huge and I rarely take a 3yo this early but I’m leaning on Insist Always as my top choice.  He just doesn’t run a bad race and I think he can get that outside push to set up his early placing, then get past them late… then again, I may be dead wrong.  I’ll take Green Rush in the second spot… he was eighth in the BC Mile (GI) so you know he has the credentials, and he seemed to get back on form last out taking the Appleton (GIII) at GP.  If he can haul the weight, he could be the one to beat.

Here’s The Field –

He’s been tough as nails since the vet came by the barn and changed his attitude.  Two wins and a pair of placings since the gelding including a narrow miss in the San Marcos (GII) at SA and a win in the Dangers Hour at AQU last out.  He’s working well and looks ready for another big run here today.  I’d give him a look if you are headed to the windows.

A mixed bag on finishes for this one in ’20 as he won the Pasadena by a head, was third in the TX Turf Mile and then was sixth last out in the SF Mile (GIII).  He’s lightly raced and gets a big weight advantage today, so there is a bunch of ups and downs to get on or off of his bandwagon.

Wire to wire in the Appleton (GIII) at GP last out at 36/ and that was certainly different than his recent form.  He had been lagging around and getting thumped, but that “send em” seemed to wake him up.  He ran big in the Red Bank (GIII) over this track in late summer when second beaten three-quarters of a length, so he likes it here and could be a horse to watch.

Only five races for this one and his only poor race was in the LA Derby (GII).  With that being said, his only win was his maiden race vs. NY-bred horses so this is certainly a step up for this youngster.  He gets a major weight break and will need every advantage he can get because there is a tough bunch to get past here today.

Three wins in his last six starts and five for sixteen overall in the win column, so he knows how to bring home a check.  Was up the track at KD late last summer in a graded race, but does have a first and a second in non-graded stakes of late.  That was a quick race at SA last out, so he may be in fine form for this one.

Got the job done in gate-to-wire fashion at TAM taking the Equistaff by a head.  That was his first win outside of the maiden ranks and he was second vs. Alw horses at FG before that win.  He’s in good form, is another 3yo getting the weight break and looks to build on a fairly nice current form.

A pair of fourths vs. stakes horses in his last two races and won vs. OptAlw types at SA prior to that.  Had a string of eight graded efforts before stepping back in class a bit, but he won the ONT Derby (GIII) and Discovery (GIII) as a 3yo.  Last year was tough as he didn’t score a win, but maybe he’s getting back on track and is ready to find that old glory.

It’s been a real up-and-down stretch for this one as he goes seventh, win, seven, third, eleventh and third in his recent form.  A nice closing third last out in the SF Mile (GIII), similar to today’s race, where he was flying in the late stages to be a half-length off of the winner.  Does he break this good/bad thing or is this a long afternoon at the races?

This youngster just doesn’t know how to run a bad race, but that’s the story behind most of Mb’s horses.  Three seconds, three wins from his last six, gets a big weight shift and Was flying last out in the Singletary at SA.  You know I hate this post, but he has some tactical speed that could help him overcome and get the job done at a decent price.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES