The FL Derby – Grade I [KYD]
GP Race #12 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Hard News D J C Racing Stables Sanchez Jef

This will be the last chance for most of these to get into the KYD and that certainly applies to this one who is coming off the back of a fairly weak effort in the Fountain Of Youth. A good fifth in the Withers from a wide gate in his preceding race looked to give him a good shot the the FOY but he got a little stuck after a slow start and made no real show. The stable is firing but this one doesnt look like a winning hope today.

2 Chai Bay Serenity Stables Ortiz I Jr

Won the Withers with a powerful late run and then ran on well in the Fountain Of Youth last time to end up fifth beaten just a length. Those two efforts put him right in this race and his works continue to be solid so another ideal draw today and he looks like he will be among the favourites.

3 Fahrenheit Mb Stables Velazquez J R

Mb Stables tends to corner the market when it comes to buying KYD hopes and this is yet another purchase that he will hope will join their growing list of qualifiers for the KYD. The winner of a free track maiden and allowance but then beaten at lower grades when switched to pay racing he is an interesting sort who certainly works like a KYD hope even if his form doesnt back that up. A 1.36 and 2 mile work puts him right in the mix and he is drawn perfectly so i am sure he will be a leading hope.

4 Zero Annuity Nakamura Stables Beschizza A

Just the four lifetime starts but i rather like what he has done so far and he could be the dark horse in this race from a trainer on top of his game. His effort in the Lewis stakes had plenty of promise coming from a wide draw and running on into fourth and i cant help but think this 9 furlongs will suit him down to the ground. He gets a great draw to work with and if he can lay up a bit closer we could see him near the front at the end.

5 This Aint No Disco YME Stable Desormeaux K J

Another with less experience than some he too has shown plenty of promise in his last three. Storming home in the Sham on seasonal debut he then ran on strongly again in the Risen Star to be fourth and those tw efforts represent some of the best form in the race. He is one of those that has been treated very nicely by the draw monster in the past never running outside gate 4 and he again gets a workable draw here so i am sure he will be involved in the finish.

6 King Niagra John Henry Bejarano R

He was bought very cheaply after winning a rabbitted Grey Stakes last year he has run three good races since but in all cases has been staying on rather than running on and may need a fast pace to give him his best chance. He is certainly up there with the best having placed in the Lewis Stakes and the San Felipe but one feels this is a last hope at getting into the KYD.
7 Pure At Forty Joshua Stables Gallardo A A

Has only just broken through in maidens winning in that state just three weeks ago but he has looked decent enough and deserves his one shot at the big time today. The draw is just about OK but he will have to step up a long way to get involved in the finish.

8 Into The Light Mb Stables Gaffalione T

He looked pretty good as a juvenile but was campaigned on the turf into the BC where he ran sixth in the Juvenile Turf. He was beginning to look a bit difficult to win with after a couple of average efforts in his first two three year old races but put in a very good effort when third in the Fountain Of Youth last time to make him yet another in the list of horses that could get into the KYD for Mb Stables. His works are very very good but he hasnt won for a long time and he still has a little to prove on the track. A winning chance on his works and that last effort.

9 Prestige Blushing Meadows Bravo J

It would be easy to write off this one race winner from an awkward draw but thats a dangerous thing to do with horses from this stable and as he is working just as well as anything else you would have to give him some sort of chance on that alone. Form ways, well beaten in a cheap allowance at GG wasnt the best seasonal debut and he will have to improve on that.


10 Always Aras Joshua Stables Castellano J J

A very interesting entry for two reasons, firstly she is a maiden and secondly she is a she. Two efforts on turf then saw her switched to the dirt for her third race where she tried to make all but was out finished to end up second. 5Lbs is worth about a half second at HRP and that puts her right in this but it is a stretch to see her winning.

11 Cardinal Direction D J C Racing Stables Bridgmohan S

Raced in good company last year and managed a third in the SAR Special and a good sixth in the BC Juvenile among a few others. He managed a good win at allowance level on seasonal debut and that drew a $300 sale as Derby fever hit D J C Racing Stable. Into the lottery he ran fairly to be fifth in the Risen Star but didnt make much of an impression and gets a difficult draw to try and pay back some of the money he cost today. The form is there, the works are good enough so he has some chances despite the 11 box.

12 Nav Man Aml Racing Hernandez B J Jr

Third in the Nashua last year he won the Jerome first up this year and then didnt do too bad in the Davis Stakes after getting too far behind early on. He looks a fair sort and would not look out of place in the KYD picture but lost will have to go his way from this draw.

13 Phooeys Queen Blue Estero Farms Talamo J

A nightmare draw for this lightly raced winner of the Sham Stakes he is right in this on that win and his effort in the Fountain Of Youth last time out when a close fifth. The draw is horrible but he won well from a wide draw in the Sham Stakes so if he gets some luck in the traffic he could be a real threat for last years Derby winning trainer.

SUMMARY

Well this really isn’t the strongest FL Derby i have ever seen and there really are no stand outs in yet another field where all the horses are carbon copies of each other. So its going to come down to trip and a bit of luck and the luckiest trainers have a good few runners here. I rather like Phoeeys Queen Blue and Estero knows how to use the wide draw so he may be a good choice but the more obvious chances are Into The Light, Zero Annuity and Chai Bay. In the effort to find some value i am going for This Aint No Disco who will need some of that luck but if he gets it could be rewarding odds.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES