HOL Derby (Grade 1)- $300.000 Purse
DMR- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Turf
December 1, 2018

A field of nine has assembled at DMR for one of the few remaining three year old stakes that will see this year. The HOL Derby is a Grade 1 that runs for the fifteenth time in our virtual world, and the fifth time at DMR. As you probably guessed, it ran at HOL the prior years. The move to DMR meant that a furlong was shaved from the race, but that has not stopped some great horses from coming here and winning. Even Fusion, who was not really known as a turf horse, won this race in the past, and more recently both Compress and Spotted Cat have won. The 2017 winner was The Laffin Sniper, a horse that has not won a stake since then. We have a few in here who are coming out of the BC and others who are simply coming off big wins. Let’s take a run through the field!

#1- Siberian Prince (Sir Daniel Martin, ridden by G Boulanger)- Picked up a couple of nice wins this year, one in March at the Grade 3 SF mile at GG, and the other in June at the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD. Since then, his form has been about as cold as you’d be in Siberia. Okay, that’s a bit a harsh but I couldn’t resist the opportunity. The last three runs have not gone well, and that includes finishing 11th in the BC Mile. By the same token, he only missed there by two lengths. I would not entirely rule him out, but he’s not my type when it comes to picking.

#2- Sezarchai (Ekli Stable, ridden by J L Ortiz)- This one is much more consistent then his neighbor to the inside, but he has yet to take on this level of competition. Most definitely he has earned the chance. We have seen him race at exactly a mile more often then not, but with his running style, there is no reason to be concerned about the distance. Works are strong, and those speed figures are improving. Expect a good race out of him, and if the competition brings out the best in him, he may end up in the winners circle.

#3- Id Rather Go Blind (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by P Lopez)- Last month, he made his turf debut at CD and finished second by a length in an allowance. Now, the trainer is hoping for him to carry that momentum and to finally pick up his second career victory. He ran in graded stakes around this time last year, but showed that he was not quite ready for them. Lately, Id Rather Go Blind has been showing some progress, and the trainer is clearly high on his talent. Although it was just an allowance, the winning time for the race is better them some of the graded races that others in this field have recently been involved with. Tough to pick, since he still needs to prove himself at this level.

#4- Call Me Spanish (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- We can call him Spanish, but if he asks us to call him a Spanish showboat, I’ll have to decline. At least, for now. He is a consistent horse, and has won two of the four races since being acquired in private sales from Sir Daniel Martin for just $30.000. His most recent win was the Grade 2 Hill Prince at BEL in early October, defeating Nitemare in the process. Fared decently in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer the race prior, but the distance there was likely just too long for him. At nine furlongs, he is a perfect 2-for-2 in his career.

#5- Winter Solstice (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by K Frey)- This Winter Warrior gelding has been almost as busy in the private sales transactions as he has been on the race track this year. Fortunately for him, it appears as though he has found a stable home. In four races for Maxmillion, he has won twice, and they are also the only wins of 2018 for any of his prior trainers. Maxmillion has turned him around, and Winter Solstice is now consistently turning out SRF’s in the upper 90’s. The most recent win for him was his last start, coming last month at SA in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby. Even if he doesn’t win here, keep an eye on him for 2019.

#6- Joffre (Mb Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- Pennington has been upstaged on the grass a little lately by L H Colon. He will look to get the upper hand on him again by riding Joffre in hopes of extending his winning streak to four. The Condottieri gelding has raced in graded stakes at times, and does have a win in one, the LRL Turf Cup, a Grade 3 in July. Mostly, he has been successful in NY-bred stakes, and had no trouble switching to the main track in his last start, winning the $300.000 Empire Classic. Surface doesn’t matter to him as he is great either way. That should continue here.

#7- People Doubted (Aml Racing, ridden by L H Colon)- Colon may still be counting all of the money he won during the BC in turf races, but he will look to continue his dominance here in the HOL Derby, and will have one of the favorites in which to do it with. People Doubted started the year chasing the TC with Mb Stables, but was sold to Aml Racing due to the numbers game. For Aml, it was a great purchase, as he ran fourth in the KYD. That was the last time we saw him on the dirt, and it was a great move, as he has gone on to win Secretariat (Grade 1) and Hirsch Turf Classic (Grade 1), while running second in another Grade 1, the BEL Derby. He was one of the favorites for the BC Turf, but it would not be his day. Expect him to bounce back here with the king of the grass in the saddle.

#8- Royal Eclipse (Chili King Stables, ridden by J R Leparoux)- The gelding has been able to hit the board consistently over the course of his career, doing so in 11 of 13 races. Five of those have been wins, and four of the wins have come since May. As good as those stats are, he has only recently been running against top competition, but stepped up impressively when moved up. Comes off a win in the Grade 2 Fayette last month. Now, if all that was sounding good, here’s the kicker on picking him: all of that was on the main track. This is his turf debut. I have to admit that I am a little skeptical of the move based on work times, but we’ll see it how it goes.

#9- Nitemare (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by Alan Garcia)- Finally, we come to a Mr Creepy gelding that has three wins this year, including the Grade 2 DMR Derby, which is a pretty similar race to what we are running here. Since that win, which was also the last time F Pennington has ridden him, he has two finishes towards the rear of the field. We’ll give him the pass on the BC Mile due to the level of competition, but his eighth of eight finish in the Hill Prince just before that is the concerning run.

Prediction: 7-5-6-2

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES