June 3, 2016

Many of the top three-year-old turf runners are heading to the more lucrative PEN Mile this weekend but those looking for home course advantage heading into the Grade I BEL Derby are staying for the Grade III Pennine Ridge, a race that has attracted six entrants but only a few with serious candidacy to win. Won by Skhyperion last year, he could only manage a ninth at BEL in his next start but still earned more than $400.000 for his efforts on the turf and this year, you have a few more of the ON-breds who are looking to step up before moving onto races like the Queens Plate and Breeders Stakes over the Summer.

1-Sunny Gabe (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Grade III Miami Mile winner Sunny Gabe was sold then purchased again for a huge $200.000 pricetag and since then, has rattled off two big wins on grass and looks to continue that amazing form with the extra furlong with which to work. That 99-speed rating is easily the best in the field and came with a huge run from well off the early fractions so the inside post will be the only concern with the fear being that he might get caught behind tiring leaders who block his path.

Analysis-Stakes winner looms like a very deserving favourite

Fair Odds-8/5

2-Techfluence (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-The Sidley Stud)

Techfluence was a Grade III winner in only his third lifetime start but has been unable to duplicate those efforts over both the main track and the turf and after an even third in the Grade III Marine, he moves back to the turf and hopefully gets a firm course to run over, which will help him and his closing kick. He does not have a published workout since March and the hope is that his fitness will be up to par but although he does face a lesser than Grade III-caliber field, this is still a big stretch for him and he will have to be better to hit the board.

Analysis-Winless in quite a while and needs to show more

Fair Odds-15/1

3-Curious Kierrnan (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Canadian Racing)

Claimed for a modest $10.000 three starts back, Curious Kierrnan was a tiring fifth in his first start for the barn but came back with a powerful wire-to-wire win at WO in a huge final time and now needs to duplicate that effort with another front-running effort. His speed ratings are getting better and he has the benefit of speed from midpack and if he can set a modest pace up front, he could easily be well on his way to another solid win for one of the top outfits since the inception of HRP.

Analysis-WO win was much better than it looks

Fair Odds-3/1

4-El Comandante (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)

For some reason, El Comandante is excellent at the allowance levels but terrible in stakes competition and after fading to dead-last in the Transylvania, he is looking for a huge rebound with the hope that the better post position can help. If the pace is too quick, he might not be able to handle the sheer speed up front so the best chance for him to succeed is to sit closer to the pace and hope that he can close enough for at least a minor award.

Analysis-Has shown nothing against this level and will be a longshot yet again

Fair Odds-20/1

5-Twisted Diademe (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Twisted Diademe has tried the grass once in his life and was a winner of the Cup And Saucer but after a failed run at the TC, he was only able to grab third against N2L company at WO and is now asked to handle a big jump in class and more importantly, a return to the grass for only the second time. He was off the board in both the Lewis and Rebel at OP, spelling trouble for his return to stakes company, and while he might be prone to handling the longer distances, he has not shown that over the grass and would be a surprise to get the win in this situation.

Analysis-Returning to grass is the best thing for him right now

Fair Odds-10/1

6-The Land (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Wolf Ridge Stables)

State-bred company has been good to The Land over the past few months and his effort going long at CD over a good turf showed that, not only can he get the distance, but he can get it over any kind of surface and in powerful wire-to-wire fashion. He is one of the few horses in the field who has never faced stakes company but makes the perfect move up in his third start with the addition of Lasix and even with speed ratings that are lower than most, he still warrants a huge look if he can contribute to the early fractions.

Analysis-Huge improvement is expected from this frontrunner

Fair Odds-5/1

Overall

Sunny Gabe is the only recent stakes winner in the Pennine Ridge and as such, should be made the favourite to handle the distance, class and stamina test that this nine-furlong event will bring, especially if the speed duel emerges between the second and third choices. Curious Kierrnan was a powerful winner at WO and could be one of two gate-to-wire winners, with the other being The Land from the farthest outside post, but they could easily duel themselves into submission and set things up for the inside runner who will be heading to BEL after this, regardless of the outcome.

Prediction

Win-Sunny Gabe (8/5)

Place-Curious Kierrnan (3/1)

Show-The Land (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES