VA Oaks [KYO]
CNL Race #1 1 1/16m Dirt Stake
Purse $250.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Heaven In The Bronx Langley Farms Centeno D E 122 —

It is a bit of a stretch to see this one’s form being good enough, but I have said that a few times over the years only to be made to look a jackass, so with the ace draw I am compelled to find a reason this one can be competitive. Both of her wins have come on the turf, both being at lowly BTP, so nothing there, but she did show improvement when put onto the main track for her last three. Third was the best she could manage at optional claimer level so again, not convincing, but her works aren’t terrible so just maybe she is ready now being third up for an improved effort. Good luck to the owner, but I can’t find a good enough reason to see her winning.

2 Lifes Good D J C Racing Stables Pennington F 122 —

You don’t get closer to winning than this one has in her last three without actually winning and with a great gate today this may be her race to lose. Beaten a neck in the Busanda last time, she showed enough there to show she has trained on from her decent juvenile form and she must be a serious win hope for the popular stable. She is a mid-pack running type who will appreciate this draw, and Pennington will be looking for compensation after two narrow defeats together in her last two.

3 Love Affair TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 122 —

Another one with decent juvenile form who has started the year well she only just failed to pick up the winner in the Suncoast last time beaten just a neck and that was after an eye-catching effort in the Santa Ynez on seasonal debut. More of a closing type, she will need some luck in running to get her run timed right, but she has the right sort of form for a race like this and must rate a big chance.

4 Siryn Williams9 Valdez F S 122 —

Claimed last time, she certainly needs to improve on what she has done so far to be a chance here but much like the words I spoke about Heaven In The Bronx, you should never entirely write a horse off in these qualifiers. She was making her ground last time when fourth at FG and whilst that was a sound effort after a low-level maiden win it was a long way from the sort of form of some of these good fillies. Her works are OK, she looks a nice type, but I just don’t see her as winning today.

5 Shared Decision Mb Stables Spencer J P 122 —

J P Spencer, much Like Buick was last year, is quickly becoming a stable jockey for Mb Stables and if they can continue some of the great form they have been in they may steer this one to yet another KYO qualifying win for the stable. A strong maiden winner at the end of last year, she has run two nice races, most recently in the Suncoast suggesting she is close to winning a race like this. She has a bit to find with Love Affair on that Suncoast form, but two lengths can easily be made up with a different pace or race instruction and no-one is better than judging those two things than Mb Stables.

6 Date Knight Our Athletes Velazquez J R 122 —

She was putting together a great record prior to the Alexandra in her last start, so gets another chance today to put the record straight. Two of her four wins have come most recently on the turf, so depending on today’s effort we may see her back there, but her dirt works are strong and her only poor effort came in her last race so we may have to forgive that run. Drawn wide in the Alexandra, she was unable to get into a stalk and seemed to lose a bit of interest from halfway, and I am sure she is better than that run. Difficult to assess but has the ability of things go right today.

7 Nicolette Alydar Stables Espinoza V 122 —

The stable has been enjoying a great start to 2025, and this one nearly joined the party in the Las Virgenes last time but mistimed her late run and ended up fifth. She was eye catching at the end and in only her third start certainly ran a race that got her noticed. I expect a late charge again today and there is no better stable than this one at getting the closers home in time.

8 Zero Out Sccj Stables Curtis B 122 —

After a hard closing fourth in the Demoiselle, I expected a bit more in the Silverbulletday but she was taken way too far back and was not given a realistic chance of winning. Such is the plight of the closers these days, they either find a pathway and look like champions or just end up in a glut of also rans closing at the end. It is tough to really predict the pace and therefore her chance of winning or indeed whether the gaming buttons will be used to try and get her closer early on so she may not be the safest of predictions, but I would say if things go her way there is no reason she cannot win.

9 Salty Heifer Mb Stables Franco M 122 —

I am guessing that as this one ran so well off the front when third in the Las Virgenes last time that the stable will use the wide gate to get her up on speed again today. She certainly has the form to run well here and there isn’t a bunch of speed in the race so may get a fairly easy lead and that could see her winning. The one thing we cannot predict these days though is the pace a race is run at and if she is pushed too hard early she could end up running a similar race to that last effort.

10 Empress Of Speed Riggins Racing Lopez P 122 —

Taken from the Jive fire sale she was bought for the bargain price of $35.000 and that isn’t bad for a filly that has only tasted defeat once and that was when second at stakes level. Her mile works show improvement and the way she finished her sprint races suggests this trip will suit. If there is a dark horse in this race, it is her and she could end up winning at decent odds.

11 Rephrase Mb Stables Gaffalione T 122 —

One run, one win in a free track maiden on the turf, only at HRP ay!! She lines up here as pretty much an unknown quantity, but this stable doesn’t throw entries away and going on her breeze last time she could end up surprising a few here.

SUMMARY

There is a lot we know about the runners and a lot we don’t and very often it is what we don’t know that inevitably steals our Disney Dollars. I will be having a buck or two each way on Empress Of Speed and Rephrase as possible winners from the left field but I have very little tangible evidence for that other than a hunch. The serious threats on form are Nicolette, Shared Decision, Lifes Good and Love Affair but with a few other chances it may pay just to go for a couple of outsiders each way and hope for one of those HRP days.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded