December 16, 2015

The final test for juvenile colts and geldings on the road to the TC comes Saturday afternoon at LA and with $350.000 on the line, the LA Futurity has drawn a field of eight evenly matched entrants all trying to earn important points on the road to CD. The top two finishers in the DED Jackpot renew their rivalry, along with a three-time stakes winner from WO and stakes winners from GP and MTH as well, and that should provide some intriguing match-ups throughout the 1 1/16 mile distance.

Over the years, a number of important horses have won this prestigious event, the first of which being Commander Phil who, back in the day, was considered the best horse at HRP after winning eight in a row going into the KYD including this race by a massive ten-lengths. Pride Rock also won this event by ten-lengths, and added the SA Derby and Swaps as a three-year-old as well, while Timepiece became the second Juvenile winner to score the Futurity and tacked on the LA Derby, BEL, Haskell and Malibu for good measure. Sweet Talkin Jed reversed the finish of the 2008 Juvenile when he beat Stylin to win the Futurity from post 14 while in 2009, Five Fives won the Champagne, lost the Juvenile then rattled off wins in the Futurity, Southwest, FL Derby, KYD, BEL, Haskell, Travers and PA Derby to complete one of the best seasons in HRP history and earn Horse Of The Year, a first for a Futurity winner. Mai Mia Bambina one-upped everyone and came the first filly to score in 2010, the aptly named Byaneck scored by a neck one year later and two year ago, it was Blue Chipper who scored before finally backing it up with a win last year in the BC Dirt Mile. In summary, this has become a crucial race for those looking to further success, with the only caveat being changes in the track as LA is a tighter course and could be into the hands of the inside starters, or those who come in fresh.

1-Wet Seal (Two-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Wet Seal won a $5.000 N2L by a nose going six-furlongs and now, hopes to take down a Grade I race against some of the best in his division; on paper, it looks like a mismatch but looks could be deceiving with the inside post. His going-away win at AQU was solid enough with a 91-speed rating and he will be coming from off the pace in a field with good speed so the hope is that he can pick up the pieces around the tight turns and at least make a claim for a minor award.

Analysis-Seems to be better with distance but still not at the top level

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Eastern Townships (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Chili King Stables)

Fifth in the Grade II Nashua, Eastern Townships will look to do what High Pride did in the Springboard Mile and win off an even effort at AQU but with the addition of blinkers, the fear is that he will be contesting for the lead once again and could find himself in trouble around the far turn like last time. He seems to be much better suited to a sprint distance and while his speed ratings are quite good, he has tired in his last two and that is a big cause for concern against this tough field.

Analysis-Will try to go as far as he can

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Loop Me Ten Bucks (Two-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Both wins from Loop Me Ten Bucks have come over the turf and last time out, he won over a soft turf at BEL and now, will need to step up on a new surface, against new shooters and with the move from the East Coast all the way to the West. There are just too many questions to answer with a gelding who has never really excelled on the dirt and while his attempt at WO was good, it is probably not enough to win this race.

Analysis-Much better suited to the grass but will still try

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Mission To Madrid (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Waldo)

Two huge wins at PM in wire-to-wire fashion prompted a purchase from owner Waldo and now, he will try to stretch his speed out against the toughest field he has ever faced and that seems like a very tough proposition. A single five-furlong workout at LA was good and he gets a change in jockey that will be benefit him but one would have loved to see him race against lesser company first, to get a gauge of his true talent before being thrown to the wolves.

Analysis-Would have liked to see him in an easier event first

Fair Odds-20/1

5-Champagne Supernova (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Champagne Supernova has been touted as a superstar since the very beginning of the year and has four wins from five starts including big scores in the Affirmed and In Reality divisions of the FL Stallion Series but his biggest claim to fame was a gigantic score in the Grade III DED Jackpot from post 14. A repeat of that effort, even with pressure up front, should be more than enough to win this race and the only fear is that he will try to go out too quickly and set a six-furlong pace in a 1 1/16 mile event, and get caught in the final strides.

Analysis-Has as much talent as anyone and could become a champion with a win

Fair Odds-2/1

6-No Doubt About It (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

A nose away from being undefeated in his career, No Doubt About It has rattled off three big wins in a row including the Grey Stakes at WO and coming off a joint win in the Coronation Futurity, could be a big factor despite actually cutting back in distance by a half-furlong. New sire Commanding is having a bumper crop of juveniles start of his career in the barn and this colt could become his third Grade I winner of the year; add to that some blistering workouts and his stalking ability and you have the logical contender to upset the clear favourite.

Analysis-Three big wins in a row make him a solid choice

Fair Odds-3/1

7-Widows Son (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Paradise Stable)

Minor stakes winner Widows Son was well backed in both the Breeders Futurity at KEE and the Hope Stakes at DMR but he failed to quicken enough in either of them and the hope is that he can continue to improve at these distances to put himself in the mix. Speed ratings are lower than many in the field, and he comes from more of a turf pedigree so look for him to excel on turf if he ever gets on to that surface; for now, he will rank a notch below the best on the main track until he learns to close.

Analysis-Will be more suited to turf when the time comes

Fair Odds-10/1

8-Missing In Action (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Downwind Stables)

A maiden win and a state-bred stakes win pushed owner Downwind Stables into entering Missing In Action into the DED Jackpot and he responded with a brilliant effort to secure second money in the last strides and now, he meets his rival again with the hopes of finding more of a duel up front, which will help him close even more. Prepped at LA since his start at DED, and looking to move up the ranks even farther, he gets returning jockey J Rosario once again and on that fact alone, has to be considered a top three prospect from a decent post.

Analysis-Will be closing again with eyes on upsetting the favourite

Fair Odds-4/1

Overall

The top two runners from the DED Jackpot renew acquaintances in the Grade I LA Futurity on Saturday afternoon and it looks like Champagne Supernova will hold the clear edge again over Missing In Action, with a better post position and the possibilities of simply running his rivals into submission around the far turn. The only question mark will be No Doubt About It, who could be sitting the perfect trip and has enough talent, stamina and class to run the favourite down and score a huge win for owner Mb Stables going into next season.

Prediction

Win-Champagne Supernova (2/1)

Place-No Doubt About It (3/1)

Show-Missing In Action (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES