SA Derby (Grade 1) (KYD)- $1,000.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
April 6, 2019
It’s now or never time in the KYD chase. With the Run For The Roses a month away, the April prep races represent the final chance for the contenders to accumulate points and to make their way into the race. Some contenders who are already locked in will still be seen this month, as after all, that $1,000.000 purse is plenty of incentive to still run. Here we look at the SA Derby, a race that runs for the 16th time, and was part of Pretty Ferro’s journey to the KYD crown. He won this race last year, and the runner up in the KYD, Centerpiece, also came out of the SA Derby, though he did not perform as well in April as he did in May. 100 points await the winner, one of three such races on Saturday. It’s an exciting weekend, for sure. Let’s look at the runners going in this race!
#1- Chrystal Believer (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by J Talamo)- Shhh, don’t tell a couple people this, but this will be the third time in a row that Chrystal Believer starts on the rail. Then again, his prior four races saw him start from eight or worst, so maybe things do even out. Chrystal Believer won the San Felipe here last month, and is on good form, overall. Most consider him one of the top threats to Beach Dandy for the KYD, and this would be a good chance for him to show everyone why. He has 65 points, so he’s racing for the purse here, and he might just get it.
#2- Tinecipher (Joshua Stables, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- While we know that Joshua Stables has the horse to beat in the KYD, he would still like to get a second horse in the race, and he has several good contenders, including one further down the starting gate. Meanwhile, Tinecipher is more a newcomer to the chase, and ran in the middle of the field while starting from centerfield in the Grade 2 Rebel a few weeks ago. Here will get a chance to see what he can do from a better post.
#3- Odyssey Explorer (Mb Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke)- It’s not unusual for the trainer to start a lightly raced horse in a race like this, and that is definitely the case with Odyssey Explorer. With just two starts and one win, his story is more about his potential then his past. Being by Decima, he has the pedigree, and the work times are strong. If he won, though, would the trainer have room for him in the Derby?
#4- Twin Towers (Estero Farms, ridden by P Lopez)- The trainer became very impressed with this one after he won an allowance here in February, and purchased him from Jediminds Stable for $1,000.000 that very day. A month later, he was in the Grade 2 TAM Derby, but would not be a factor. His work times are extremely impressive, but the Commanding colt is out of time after this race to make the KYD if he is shutout here.
#5- Liberty Valance- Scratched
#6- Clueless Joe (Allinthegate, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- So far, his best races have been on the turf, with a win in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes last fall, allowing him to run in the BC Juvenile Turf. This year, the commitment to the KYD chase has been there, and the finishes must be agonizing for the trainer, as he was fifth in the LA Futurity, then the Lecomte, and then the Gotham. He’s shown potential, but he hasn’t picked up a point or a check this year, either.
#7- Majestical (Smokey Stover, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- For as successful as he has been, Smokey Stover could be shut out of the KYD if he doesn’t pick up points this weekend, and that would be quite a surprise. His top horse in the standings is 19th, with Matsue Castle, and he also has Bo Knows in 24th. Further down, we get Majestical, sitting 40th on the board with 8 points, thanks to finishing second in the Ruby last month. Gets a much needed chance to show his stuff against the best in the division right here.
#8- Devil Snake (Joshua Stables, ridden by M J Sanchez)- This is the more experienced horse at the stake level that Joshua will bring to the starting gate, and while recent starts have been disappointing, such as running ninth in the San Felipe here last month, he posted a pretty impressive mile work a couple weeks ago, so he looks ready to roll and make amends for that. Four points so far allow him to be 52nd on the leaderboard.
#9- Questionable (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velzquez)- One of the top three year olds that the trainer has at his disposal right now. At the current time, Mb Stables has half of the top 8 horses on the leaderboard, with Questionable being fifth and being a lock for the KYD just as long as the trainer makes him one of his three horses. I’ll take this time again to voice my displeasure with the rule that limits him to the three entries, as the KYD is a special race which should be about the horses, and not the trainer. The runner up in the BC Juvenile comes into the race off a win in the Fountain Of Youth, and there’s no reason to think he can’t run big here again. Post is not ideal, though it is not awful, either.
#10- Russian Dictator (Gdp Inc, ridden by J J Castellano)- The time is now for this one to show that he belongs in the KYD, as he has not participated in any preps until now. It also cost Gdp Inc a grand total of $902.000 less to get him from Jediminds Stable then it cost Estero Farms to get Twin Towers from that trainer. Looks to be improving, but not sure if he is quite there yet. Race within the race to see if he beats Twin Towers.
#11- Not To Be Denied (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J Bravo)- Between the time I wrote about Liberty Valance and this one (I didn’t do it all in one sitting), D J C Racing Stables has gone from two horses to one in the race. This makes Not To Be Denied that one carrying the flag here. He is 27th on the leaderboard, with one less point then Liberty Valance coming into it, so he is on the bubble. Bear in mind, there are a few Mb Stables horses ahead of him that due to the un-real life like trainer restriction for the race, will not all be able to run.
#12- Red Cup (Our Athletes, ridden by R Bejarano)- Might be flying under the radar a little as one of the better KYD contenders as he has been very consistent throughout prep season. After running third in the BC Juvenile, he has finished no lower then fourth in any of the preps he has run in, and recently ran second here in the San Felipe. He hasn’t won any of them, and that’s why we don’t hear his name more then we do, but perhaps the time is now.
#13- Admiration (Mb Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- This is the winner of the TAM Derby last month, and the points that he earned there give him 58 overall, and would have locked him in to the KYD if it were not for the restrictions that hover over Mb Stables. If I were to guess, right now I would think that Admiration would not be one of three picked, but a win here can definitely change that.
#14- More 2 Gain (Toppedout, ridden by T C Baze)- A late bloomer to the KYD Chase, More 2 Gain has won three of five career races. It is a career that began on the grass, and only in his last two races has he been on the main track. He ran second in the TUP Derby before winning an allowance here last month. The earnings aren’t there, but he knows how to get it done, so he could be a sneaky pick in this race. Good to see the trainer has not raced his contenders as hard early as was done last year.
#15- Good Cop (Joshua Stables, ridden by V Espinoza)- Due to the late announce of Liberty Valance being scratched, Joshua Stables gets his third entry into the field. Good Cop is lightly raced, having gone to post just three times, and only has a maiden win to speak of. That was annihilation in the HRP world though, taking the PRX race by six lengths. Worked well at PRX, and the trainer will get to see how he stacks up. Tough to pick a winner from this post, but we did have a runner from it a couple weeks ago.
Prediction: 9-1-12-11
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
