Prince Of Wales Stakes- $400.000 Purse
FE- For Three Year Olds Foaled in Canada
One Mile and Three Sixteenths on the Dirt
July 21, 2020

We’ll have some good racing on Tuesday this week, as the biggest race at Fort Erie, the Prince of Wales Stakes, goes to post for the 14th time. The King of this race recently has been none other then Mb Stables, who has won the last three editions. That is a run that started with the late Danzig on the Rocks in 2017, then Con Artist and Burning Approval. Burning Approval was an interesting one, as he carried that momentum into the Travers at Saratoga, and won that race as well. We probably will not see that double attempted this year with the early August running of the Travers, but I would not rule it out, entirely. His momentum continued into winning the PA Derby, and then running second in the BC Dirt Mile. He’s still winning now, but not at the stake level at the current time. May we have another Burning Approval in here? Let’s meet the runners!

#1- Bobbin For Stars (Arindel, ridden by T Gaffalione)- A tricky horse, because he does not have a big win at this level quite yet. The best we can give him credit for is the $100.000 Frost King at WO last November. He’s had a few close calls along the way, but recently his starts do not stand out. He’s going longer then he ever has here, and his last race at a mile and an eighth showed that he could continue to make up ground late. He certainly belongs here, but I am not sure what he’s going to do in this race, as I could see him legitimately finishing in any of the five positions.

#2- Stormin Charlie (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A T Gryder)- A very lightly raced horse, with just for career starts. He won his debut, and then finished fifth in an optional claimer at GG. That usually does not get followed up by running in the BG Stakes, but he was there. That’s about all there is to say about that race. Placed third in the Grade 3 Marine in his last start. Clearly, the story of this horse is about potential and not the past. Nakamura has always had faith in this horse, given the aggressive placement early, and that says a lot for what Stormin Charlie could do. He is probably still growing as well, making him appealing for these reasons.

#3- Supreme Confidence (Mb Stables, ridden by J K Court)- This is the one that Mb has chosen to get his fourth consecutive win in the Prince of Wales. He is five for eleven in his career, so right away there is reason to have confidence. The best victories came as a two year old, capturing a couple of Canadian-restricted races. This year, he has not been as strong, with his only wins coming in overnights and some off the board finishes in graded stakes. What gets my attention is his fifth place run two starts ago in the Grade 3 Marine, the race that Stormin Charlie was third in. They were close, and Supreme Confidence did make up ground on Stormin Charlie late in that race. He’ll like this distance.

#4- Disco Duck (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by T C Baze)- In nine starts, Disco Duck has only been able to win one of them. That is not the end of the world, in itself, but his consistency in finishing sixth, especially in ungraded stakes, is the concerning thing. He can’t be sixth here, so maybe that is a good omen. His last race was better, running third in the Grade 3 Winn. He never was a factor for the win there, but was coming on at the end, so he may find this favorable here.

#5- County Medical (Crocker Ggs, ridden by A Beschizza)- Finally, we get to the horse that should be the one to beat here, but that comes with the red flag that he has been known to throw up some duds in his career. His last race is what should separate him, as he ran third in the coveted Queens Plate, being involved in photo with the winner, the great Anoush Command. It is additionally appealing when you consider the mile and a quarter distance of this race, making him the only one the field that has run, at minimum, what we are running here in the Prince of Wales. Others show high potential to do so, but we know that County Medical can. He is my pick, but I would not play him at very low odds due to some of those flat runs of his past.

Prediction: 5-3-2-1

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded