The Acorn – Grade I
SAR Race #3 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
Traditionally the replay of the Oaks it is unlikely as in previous years that this race will follow the finishing order in the KYO. The going was slightly off as a good track at CD, so the weather conditions here will certainly play a part in any changes to form but at HRP we are pretty used to seeing wild swings for no apparent reason, so I will be looking at this race from a body of work perspective to try and find the winner. Having said that, there is a good chance of similar going here so those who didn’t handle the off track at CD may be in the same boat here at SAR.
Here is how they line up:
1 Agapova Royalty Stables Geroux F 122 —
Drawn 13 and finished 13th in the KYO I feel it was the draw rather than the going that did her in that day, and she is certainly a lot better than that. The winner of the BC Juvenile Fillies, she came from a mile back to win that day, but we all know that this new engine doesn’t like closers and she has certainly suffered at its hands this year. She ran well enough to be second in the Alexandra but has since faced two wide draws and the race engine just kills them if they go too far back and being a deep closer already, she was never going to win her last two. Today she gets back into an inside gate and that tends to help the deep closers stay a bit nearer the pace than the wider draws so I would expect a much-improved effort.
2 Nazca Lines Delta Farms Gallardo A A 122 —
Another that was given no chance by the race engine in the KYO, she too was hauled back into a distant rear of the chasing group and though she closed like most did, she was never going to reach the winner on this new engine. Before that she had won four in a row and though a closer for three of those wins, she never got too far back and got her timing right. This great draw should see the race engine set her up around midfield, and it would be no surprise to see her running through to score.
3 Altered State Mb Stables Gaffalione T 122 —
Bypassed the Oaks and went for the Eight Belles instead which she won by a game nose over a trip that was probably a little sharp for her. Though she may play second fiddle to her stable mate on reputation, she is a very good filly in her own right and one that has a good running style for this type of race.
4 Let Me Explain Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122 —
After winning the BC Juvenile Turf last year and then taking the Golden Rod on the dirt it was clear that she was a very talented filly, but things have transpired this year to leave her form at least looking a little disappointing after that initial promise. I do feel however that there have been a few excuses for at least a couple of those runs which were on off tracks a surface that she seems to be a length or two worse on. So, taking out those runs she has a dominant win in the Honeybee and a fair third in the Fantasy, but I may still need convincing that she is the superstar we thought she might be. Could win but there is a big enough question mark in my mind to watch her with hope rather than confidence today.
5 Wasted Away Fractious Moore R L 122 —
The KYO winner, there is no doubt that she was suited by the off track but with a similar draw today and the possibility of some moisture we may see the filly do the seeming impossible and confirm that Oaks form. Like a good few off the fast pace she came from behind with a clump of runners but found the gaps and had the class to take down the win where others couldn’t. It would be interesting to see what happens on a dry track but if it is wet, she may be the only one to back.
6 Pinnacle Reject Night Rider Stables Carmouche K 122 —
Bought for $300.000 as an Oaks prospect, she did well to make the field with three solid runs, the best of which may have been her second in the Fantasy finishing in front of Let Me Explain. I thought she may have been suited by the off track in the Oaks, but she chased a fast pace and faded at the end as the back and front of the field swapped places. You would have to ignore that effort to give her a chance as there wasn’t too many excuses but we are often asked to ignore at least one run a year here at HRP so you have to give her another chance.
7 Reflex Action D J C Racing Stables Centeno D E 122 —
Well, we know one thing about this stable’s horses, they are likely to be closing late just as sure as Mb’s are likely to be on speed. That is exactly how she ran in the Eight Belles last time to be a hard closing third but prior to that she hadn’t mustered the same finish in both the Fantasy and the Honeybee. She is a little frustrating, looking brilliant one moment and less so the next, but I think she has a better finish on an off track so may be an each way prospect if the rains come.
8 Purple Charger Fractious Franco M 122 —
After beating her stable companion in the Ashland, she then fell afoul of the consistency of form by getting beaten by the same horse in the KYO. She was pretty close up for most of that race off a fast pace so there could be some excuse but faces a similar draw today and may again find that she uses up some energy in getting a position in running. The wetter the better for her but she was a close second in the BC Juvenile Fillies on a dry track so is no one trick pony. Wherever her stable companion finishes she won’t be far away so she must have a good chance.
9 Devil In High Heels Fractious Prat F 122 —
The third runner from the stable, she went from deep closer to on pacer last time and that may give us some clue as to why she is included in this line up. She has some of the best sprint work times in this field but proved in the FG Oaks that with the right ride she is classy enough to run very well over longer trips. For me this has the look of a pacemaker but if not then she may well go way back again to try and see the trip out. If she gets a soft lead or stalks a slower pace, she could well surprise her stable mates although it’s more likely she is here to set it up for her stable mates.
10 Hobo Blues Alydar Stables Bridgmohan S X 122 —
After a very disappointing effort in the Honeybee she bounced back with a good third in the GP Oaks and then a game win in the Black Eyed Susan. That form is certainly good enough to give her a chance here but this draw won’t be ideal for a horse that is probably at her best coming from the stalk. The stable is in great form though and that can count for a bit and with only seven starts she could be on the improve. Won’t be inconvenienced by an off track.
11 Decimas Queen Maxmillion Farm Garcia Mar 122 —
Considering the pace was way too fast for the conditions, this lightly raced filly did tremendously well to keep on for a brave second in the KYO. Before that effort she showed a great turn of foot to win the SA Oaks very impressively, but that was from a favorable draw, and she is once again hung out to dry by the draw monster in this race. The trainer knows how to win big races and they may use the outside speed push to once again put her up on the speed which will again make her vulnerable late, but I am not sure they have much choice. I have no doubt that this is a very good filly and on her last two efforts and with a bit of race engine luck would be a good choice for the win.
12 Midnight Rumble Riggins Racing Husbands P 122 —
Another deep closer, so I won’t repeat myself by talking about the race engine bias against her and having the car park draw she will in all likelihood get too far back to have a chance of winning. She managed to find a spot in the FG Oaks and was an impressive winner but in most of her other starts has been spat out too far back by the race engine, so whilst it is not impossible to see her winning it is by no means a given. I like her a lot, her mile work recently was very good and just maybe when the back swaps with the front in this race, like it inevitably will, this wide gate may see her get a clear run.
SUMMARY
Well, if you are confident about who will win this you are a better handicapper than me!!
I guess there are two scenarios, the wet ground one and the dry ground one. On dry ground then we may see one of the Mb runners take the win from the no doubt favorable position they land in out of the gate whereas on a wet surface we will see the plethora of closers queuing up to see which one will get over the top of the pace horses.
You have to respect the Fractious entries here and with them and Mb dominating many of the big races there will no doubt be little value in their starting prices but out of the three entries I can’t see why the KYO winner won’t hold that form for another win.
But you know me, I like to try and go outside the obvious and to do that I am going for the two widest draws. I think Decimas Queen is a bit special and if she is given a chance by the AI, she could well win, but I also like the scenario where Midnight Rumble storms home down the wide outside and catches the front runner. Good luck to all the runners and good luck if you are trying to pick a winner.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
