The Nashville Derby – Grade III
KD Race #3 1 5/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $2,500.000 For Three-Year-Olds.
It’s the first running of the Nashville Derby with a huge prize of $2,500.000. We get a mix here of turf specialists, recent converts, and some turf hopefuls but with a lot of horses running just as well on either surface, we should probably look at this like any three-year-old race this year and look at works and form on any surface. That won’t be easy though with 14 runners and the possible favorite drawn wide so let’s take a look at what we have and try and find a winner:
1 Knob And Key Team 7 Illusions Corrales G 122 —
The ace draw goes to Knob and Key, an interesting prospect but one that is more about potential than exposed performance. A couple of average runs preceded a convincing maiden win over a mile and three-eighths where he made all and strolled home against five rivals. He went for the preview of this race last time but although he once again landed on the lead, he faded to end up fourth of the five runners. The form is really not convincing me, although there are positives, they are a stretch when you consider the field he is up against today. On the works side of things, he has been more impressive but whilst they are good, they are only as good as others. So, on the balance of things, he would have to be an outsider, not one that couldn’t run well but one where the chances do not look as obvious as some.
2 Convincing Diablo Diablo Maldonado E 122 —
This one’s form is more measurable but to be honest it is his works that are most convincing. His career-best run was probably in his second in the Peninne Ridge but either side of that run there were poor efforts on the BEL Derby and The American Turf making it hard to pick him on form. His works have been more like it, a sub 1.35 mile, in fact, a sub 58 for 5 and a sub 1.10 for 6, making him one of the more consistently good workers on the grass but consistency in works doesn’t always win races as we can see in his record. His running styles seem to be under constant review so this great gate will certainly help him run his best race, but he must be among the outsiders.
3 Test The Waters Mb Stables Buick W T 122 —
Buick certainly hasn’t started where Moore left off, but Mb Stables hands him the reins again here to see if he can find some redemption. There is no getting over the fact that Mb Stables probably has the best overall barn of three-year-olds they have ever had dominating the filly’s division and it is getting that way with the colts too now the lottery of the TC is over. The fact that they have three runners here all with a very good chance of winning and probably have three more sitting in the stables that could step in means that the others may be chasing shadows. This horse disappointed in the KYD but bounced back with a huge run in the Preakness when just getting caught by none other than Walk Em Down. He then switched to the turf, because, why not, and was second to his stable mate and race rival, beaten a length. Last time out he disappointed in the National Museum of Racing but was taken on for the lead over the mile and may have just found that trip a bit sharp. He is an on-pacer, so I expect him to lead from this gate, but he has been found lacking for a turn of foot and I can’t see him beating his stable mate today if he does fight for the lead. Buick however does like to come late so just maybe there will be an enterprising tactic today.
4 Lasting Impressions Alydar Stables Conner T 122 —
His only turf effort was in the Pennine Ridge when fourth but with the surface seeming to mean little these days it is worth looking at his body of work rather than that single race. Third in the grade one FL Derby he missed out on the TC and has been a little disappointing since going seven without a win as a three-year-old. He is working 1.36 and 2 for the dirt mile and sub 58 for the turf five which although may not look too real life is in fact pretty normal for a horse in this class at HRP. So where can we put him here? Well, his run in the Dandy last time was pretty good considering that was a good race, but it does worry me that he is working so strongly but cannot find a big run and may just lack the sort of turn of foot that will see him as a danger at this level. The trainer is one of the best however and if there is a way to get him to the line in the top four, they will find it.
5 Damushi Red Fox Farms Rodriguez Jam 122 —
One of the more experienced on the surface, he had been very consistent at lower grade but stepped up in the Secretariat last time and proved that he was up to this level with a strong finishing second. Beaten by Virtual Handyman who gives this race a miss because of the tight turn round the question will be not in his ability but whether he has recovered in 18 days after that big effort. Not out of the first three all year and working well enough if he is at his best he is entitled to be in the race to the end.
6 Diamond Haggis Fractious Graham J 122 —
As has been the case all year, the three-year-old with the best hope of beating the Mb three-year-olds comes from Fractious Stable. This one has been really consistent all year and is a poster boy for that small percentage that seems to have a real surface preference. He ran right up on the pace and was too much for them in the National Museum Of Racing last time, a performance that was right on the running style and effort we have been seeing from him all year. His turf works are good enough and he is proven in this grade, so if there is one to get among the Mb runners it will probably be him.
7 Red Bull D J C Racing Stables Rodriguez A R 122 —
Why not wait for a $2,500.000 race for your first attempt at the surface, it may look like a long shot but it has ended in some big results in the past so you can’t blame the trainer for having a go. Third in both the Dwyer and the ELP Derby he certainly has ability on the dirt and if he improves a length or two on the grass then he just could be the surprise package.
8 Well Done Team 7 Illusions Zayas E J 122 —
Another interesting entry from the stable who saddles the one race winner drawn the ace and has this one having his first race in any sort of stakes race. On the face of it, he would be a long shot but like his stable mate has some decent work and seems to be a natural at the longer trips. On paper, he cannot win but never say never at HRP!
9 Way Of The Dragon Fractious Bravo J 122 —
With the Fractious and Mb runners looking superior on paper at least, we may as well look at the five of them and try and work out which is the best to find the winner of this race. Third in the BEL Derby and second in the SAR Derby beaten by both Rearranger and Test The Waters you would have to be thinking third may be the best result for this one, but there has been a gradual improvement in works for him so maybe he can get into them a bit more today. The draw is tough, but I think he will go back so it may not be an issue, and a switch of rider today could make it interesting.
10 Fanatical Empire Smokey Stover Bejarano R 122 —
Whilst I have talked a lot about Fractious and Mb Stables you cannot leave out Smokey Stover who saddles this 4-race winner who was close up behind the BC Turf champ King Que Niagra and only a half-length or so behind last week’s big race winner Life Is Beautiful last time out so brings a very interesting form line into this. Before his two recent defeats, he had won 4 races in a row by a neck or less including the American Turf and the Transylvania so he certainly fits right up with the big two stables runners in this race, His last couple of mile works have been impressive and I think he has been crying out for this trip all year. If there’s one that can beat them it is this one.
11 Shark Waters Fractious Husbands P 122 —
On pace in his last two, I wonder if that is where he will try and go today from this wider draw. His run in the BEL Derby suggested this trip would be too far but he ran well for a fair way that day, so he is certainly good enough to lead them up for a bit. On paper, he looks the least likely of the Fractious runners but despite his slightly more ordinary form, he is working pretty much the same as all the bigger hopes so as usual, you can’t write him off completely.
12 Rearranger Mb Stables Hernandez J J 122 —
With a two for two record on the turf and two very nice wins in the BEL Derby and SAR Derby you would have to say this is the likely favorite to win again here today. The thing that may beat him if anything is the draw, but it may help him as the wide gate speed push may help him dominate like it did in the SAR Derby last time. He has to be the first choice, but though he has looked unbeatable in his last two, nothing stays unbeatable for long at HRP and this is possibly his biggest test yet from this gate.
13 Chaparral Cowboy Nakamura Stables Elliott S 122 —
Went back to the turf after a go at the TC Qualifiers and quickly got back to winning ways with a game win in the Pennine Ridge. He got caught out in the BEL Derby with the strong early pace and though he made up ground late. I don’t feel he is a strong finisher from the back, but maybe more of a grinder which is ideal at this trip if he can find a position from this draw. His start and early position will be key to his chances here and the race will be won or lost in the first half mile.
14 Back Class TwinTowersRacing Jaramillo E 122 —
Gets the car park which is tough for this improving homebred. He gets no favors here and may need a few to live with the best of these but the trainer is certainly one that can throw a cat in among the pigeons so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him playing a big part in this race even if it doesn’t mean winning. Third in the Pennine Ridge and second in the American Derby is good form and his works are pretty much up with everything else, but it is the race engine that holds the key to his chances.
SUMMARY
Well, it is hard to go past the Mb and Fractious runners with the Mb pair of Test The Waters and Rearranger looking to have the edge. Rearranger has been huge in both his turf starts to the point where anything inside gate 6 I would say he is unbeatable but being out in twelve does bring a few others into it. Stablemate Test The Waters has the perfect draw and may be ready to step up after some great races in defeat this year. If there is one to beat the big two it may be Fanatical Empire who was huge in the United Nations against the older horses and could well turn out to be the big spoiler.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
