October 23, 2015
Empire Showcase Day at HRP features eight races for the NY-breds and the Ticonderoga is featured for the fillies and mares going long on the turf, with a small but very talented field of four signed on to go 1 1/16 miles. Won in the past by filles such as Thrilled and Funloving, it features the dead-heat winners of the recent Hettinger over this same course and a recent Grade I runner-up who, as a three-year-old, could be fresh for this in search of a big end to what has already been a top class campaign.
1-Midwest Metal (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
As the distances have gotten longer, Midwest Metal has seemingly gotten better and after winning a docile allowance two back, she got caught right on the money in the Hettinger and you can bet that jockey I Ortiz Jr will not let that mistake happen a second time. She gets the inside to flaunt her speed and knows how to set moderate splits so look for her to break on top and try to lead this smaller field gate-to-wire for her fifth win in a row.
Analysis-Keeps improving and the slightly shorter distance will help
Fair Odds-3/1
2-Angelinas Bankroll (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Angelinas Bankroll has had a serious case of second-itis her entire career with five runner-up efforts in ten career outings and with only a single maiden claiming win, will be the longest shot on the board here facing proven stakes company. She faced two rivals last time out and was a non-threatening second and closed for second against three-year-olds before that and while she might be talented, there is still much to be worked upon and that will leave her off the board in this tough field.
Analysis-Good enough on her best day but this is a tough group of fillies
Fair Odds-10/1
3-Risen Angel (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Risen Angel rode a three-race winning streak into KEE for the Grade I First Lady and came away with a gutsy second place finish, a nose behind multiple Grade I winner Broomsticks Copy, and with the cutback in class, she might be the spoiler against state-bred company. She has the highest speed ratings in the field and will be right there despite the added half-furlong; the only concern is the lack of an interim workout, which might leave her behind the eight-ball on fitness and could prove the determining factor in the end.
Analysis-Really in good form right now and should be a major factor
Fair Odds-5/2
4-The Generals Out (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Hambletonian Stable)
Give her a firm turf and some state-bred rivals and The Generals Out is about as good as it gets in NY and after a tough loss in the Mount Vernon back in May, she has rebounded with wins both the Yaddo and Hettinger and looks right at home here in the Ticonderoga. The outside post will help with her stalking ability and she gets the same pace to chase, with the only factor against her being the 126-pound impost which she has shouldered in the past but probably gets tougher and tougher each time around.
Analysis-Asked to go around once more with huge weight
Fair Odds-3/1
Prediction
Every filly in the Ticonderoga has a good chance to win the biggest part of the $200.000 purse but in a battle of recent state-bred winners, it might just be an open company filly who spoils the party and after just missing in Grade I company, Risen Angel should be well-meant to score her second stakes of the season. The Generals Out and Midwest Metal could not be separated in their last start and will not be separated in the odds here, with the slight edge going to the outside filly with a year more experience and the ability to close into what could be a slightly faster pace.
Overall
Win-Risen Angel (5/2)
Place-The Generals Out (3/1)
Show-Midwest Metal (3/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
