Rodeo Drive Stakes (Grade 1) (BC)- $300.000 Purse
SA- For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward
One Mile and One Quarter on the Turf
September 26, 2015
The BC Fillies & Mares Turf will await the winner of this Saturday’s eleventh running of the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive at SA. This Grade 1 event at one time ran for a $500.000 purse when it was previously known as the Yellow Ribbon Stakes. In 2012, the name of the race was changed to its current moniker. Interestingly enough, Rodeo Drive or Yellow Ribbon success has not led to BC Fillies & Mares Turf success, as you will find that many past winners of this race ended up having double digit finishes in the BC. The best BC performance by a winner of this stake came in 2008 when Jsl Racing’s Aunt Deb finished 4th in the BC. That’s it. So, can we finally have a Rodeo Drive winner hit the board in the BC Fillies & Mares Turf? First, we need to have a winner here, and there are seven who will look to buck the historic trend. Another trend is that no trainer has ever won this race more then once, and there are a couple of well known trainers that are missing on that past winner list. R Alvarado Jr is the winningest jockey of the race, but he will be at BEL on Saturday. Now, let us take a moment to look at those who have turned onto Rodeo Drive for this race.
#1- Altered Skeleton (Chili King Stables, ridden by J Rosario)- Last month, this three year old Skeleton Key filly race to victory in the Grade 2 Lake Placid at SAR. She was a bit of a longshot that day, having only two wins in her prior thirteen starts, but she got it done in great form that day. Altered Skeleton had usually been in the mix in prior race, and in the Lake Placid, Chili King took off the shadow roll and put blinkers on her. The question we need to ask ourselves is how much that alteration of adds led to Altered Skeleton winning that big race. As we all know, a tenth or two can mean everything in our virtual racing world, especially at this level. In the Lake Placid, she looked great, and if the blinkers led her to victory there, she can do the same here. There are no others in this field however, who also ran in the Lake Placid.
#2- End Times (Sarah Stables, ridden by E J Wilson)- This five year old mare ran in the Fillies & Mares Turf here last year, and came in 11th place. That finish, however, is the outlier in what has been a great run for End Times for her entire career. She is impressively consistent, going 24-7-7-4 in her career, and four of the six races she was not in the top three, she was fourth. Two of the races after the BC for her have been wins, taking the $60.000 Mardi Gras at FG, and then a win in her last start, the Grade 3 Violet at MTH. That consistency is something you also see in her SRF figures as they are practically all 96, 97, or 98. Those are the type of figures she will need to run here to have a chance, and we know she can do it.
#3- Onorata Rodiana (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by E Aceves)- This filly is beginning to put together the same kind of consistency as End Times. After taking some time to break her maiden with numerous near misses, Onorata Rodiana is getting into the best form of her career while racing for her current trainer. Team 7 Illusions bought the Condottieri filly in private sales for just $60.000 in June and advanced her career all the way to a second by a nose finish in the Grade 2 Waya last month. In that race, she was particularly good in the final quarter mile of that 1 ½ mile race. I’m a little concerned that even when she has been at her best, her SRF figures are a couple ticks lower then others here.
#4- Fair Quest (Glorify Stables, ridden by G L Stevens)- It has been a great year for Fair Quest, with three wins and three third places finishes in her six races in 2015, all but one of which have been at the graded level. In March, she defeated End Times en route to winning the Grade 3 Hillsborough at TAM, then a month later she captured the Grade 1 Wiley, beating three rivals at KEE to do so. More recently, she ran third in a very competitive Diana (Grade 1) at Saratoga. Her last race was a third as well, but saw a noticeable drop in her SRF figure average, so hopefully that will just be aberration. That came in the Grade 2 Mabee Stakes at DMR. To win today, Fair Quest is going to have to run as she did during the spring and summer, but I am not sure if this race will set up for her running style.
#5- T S Razor (Mb Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- One of those horses with past performances that make me shake my head. Not because of her actual performance, but for the amount of times she has changed owners in a short stretch of time. Since April, she has been sold in private sales three times (and raced four times). That’s something you can expect from a claimer, but not for such a talented filly, and you have to think this held her back from fulfilling her true potential. With Mb Stables, she has hopefully found a home, but to do so she may have to start living up to her potential. Mb did purchase her for $350.000 after all, and has two off the board finishes to show for it. She goes back to the turf, which was where she was before she started being sold like a share of stock. She’s capable of winning here, and if she does, maybe she’ll start fulfilling that potential since she’ll get the chance now.
#6- Rock Warrior (Canadian Racing, ridden by M Smith)- Here is your horse to beat. Running in the BC Fillies and Mares Turf is nothing new to Rock Warrior, as she has done so for the last two years. In 2013, she made an impressive close at the end to just miss by a length. In 2014, that close never really came. Considering the difficulty of making that race two years in a row, it seems like a crazy statement to say Rock Warrior may be in the best form of her career right now. But that does seem to be the case. In vintage Canadian Racing style, she was lightly raced over the first half of 2015, but has been doing nothing but going to the winners circle after races this summer. She was won three straight including the Grade 3 Matchmaker at MTH, and the Grade 2 Ballston Handicap on Travers Day at SAR. Possibly that alone means she’s going to the BC even if she doesn’t win here. She is working well coming into the race, as evidenced by a great work at WO on the 14th. Rock Warrior has everything you want for this kind of race, and she is my pick to win.
#7- Volare (Axeman, ridden by R A Baze)- This five year old mare has also been to the BC Fillies and Mares Turf, doing so in 2013, where she ran almost the same time as did Rock Warrior. While Rock Warrior continued to get better, Volare was not able to return last year. It was right after BC time in 2014, however, where Volare looked to be getting her career back on track with back to back Grade 3 wins. Her thanks for this was to be sold to Axeman for $125.000. With her new trainer, Volare has one win in five starts, coming on soft turf in the Grade 2 NY at BEL, beating some very strong opposition. She’s been good on soft turf actually, but she’s in the wrong state if she wants to think about that again. Volare has recently shown herself to be a little inconsistent, and I always have a tough time picking a horse like that. If she is on her game, she can win this as well.
Prediction: 6-2-1-7
— NS
Categories: Grade I
