San Felipe (Grade 2) (KYD)- $500.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
March 9, 2019
The virtual grounds at SA are safe and ready to host the 15th running of the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, which is a key 50 points prep race on the journey to the KYD. Saturday in itself will be a huge day for the KYD picture, as there are four point races; one 20 point race, which is the Ruby at TP, and then you have this race, the Gotham (AQU), and the TAM Derby all having 50 points on the line. Right now, we have two horses on the KYD point leaderboard that have pulled away, but the picture is pretty foggy after them. The San Felipe was won by Fox News last year, doing so as a 22/1 longshot. He’d have longer odds in the KYD, and finished in the middle of the field. The runner up that day was Centerpiece, and he’d have better fortunes, running second to Pretty Ferro in the KYD, and later in the year would win the Travers. We have some good contenders in this field, so let’s look at them now!
#1- Chrystal Believer (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by J Talamo)- After finishing seventh in the BC Juvenile, his three year old season is off to a solid start, winning the LA Futurity in December, before placing fourth in the Grade 3 Withers last month. These results put him good shape early on the leaderboard, with 15 points, and presently ranked 7th. His last public mile work came in late January, and was highly impressive. With a good rail trip, we might not need to look any further then right here to find our favorite.
#2- Devil Snake (Joshua Stables, ridden by V Espinoza)- The Snakie gelding took on Chrystal Believer in his last start, the Withers, and finished second, and defeated that rival while overall being the best finisher of the four in this race that come out of that. This earned him 4 points, and places him 34th on the leaderboard. He’s adapted well to the graded level, and I’ll always have a soft spot for any foal of Snakie’s.
#3- Red Cup (Our Athletes, ridden by R Bejarano)- Sitting 11th on the leaderboard with 11 points, Our Athletes will be hoping that Red Cup continues to show the high level of consistency that he has always demonstrated. A strong two year old season led to him finishing third in the BC Juvenile, and his season is off to a good start this year thanks to running second in the Lewis Stakes right here last month. I wish I could see a more recent mile work on him, though.
#4- Blowberg (Estero Farms, ridden by J R Velazquez)- After being purchased in private sales for $120.000 from Luz International, Blowberg has seen his career elevated to the stake level. He spent a lot of time at AQU, winning the always competitive $100.000 Notebook for NY-breds. Two starts later, he would run third in the Grade 3 Withers. That effort gave him 2 points, which is enough for his name to currently be on the leaderboard, but that’s about it right now. The trainer has several good KYD contenders right now.
#5- Feathers Not Dots (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Beschizza)- This one joins the KYD chase after breaking his maiden in his third career start, coming at AQU last month. This is a leap in class, but if you feel the horse has the ability, it’s time to see what he can do. Looks like the works will need to be a little better in order to win this, but if he can race much better then what they imply, then the works won’t mean anything.
#6- King Niagra (John Henry, ridden by A A Gallardo)- This Niagra gelding has been passed around a couple times between barns in his career already, despite showing good promise. John Henry was able to pick him up last October for $50.770 in private sales the day after winning the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at WO. Since then, he has a pair of third place efforts in two prep races, which includes the Lewis Stakes here last month. Currently has 4 points, and is 30th on the leaderboard.
#7- Peppermint Force (Allinthegate, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- Off to a good start in his career thus far with four wins in seven starts, and that includes two ungraded stake victories. That’s highlighted by the $150.000 Great White Way, for NY-breds. When moving into graded competition, he has not quite been as effective, and will need to show some improvement from his last race, the ungraded Smarty Jones. He doesn’t have a public work since January 5th, so impossible to know if he is on the right track.
#8- Port Niagra (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by L Seaz)- Broke his maiden in his last start, at GP on the last day of January. He enters the KYD-prep chase now, working well at GP a couple weeks ago. He’s still untested, so there is not much to go by at this time. It does appear, however, that he is capable of a good showing. Perhaps he could be another longshot winner like Fox News was for the trainer last year.
#9- Not To Be Denied (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- We will take a moment here to give a shout out to Niagra, who has three foals in this race. While the trainer has one horse in the field looking to make a name for himself, Not To Be Denied has already established himself in ths chase, with two graded wins as a two year old, and just missing a check in the BC Juvenile, placing fifth. Ran second in the Davis Stakes last month, and has 14 KYD points, sitting 8th on the leaderboard.
#10- Brady Is A Lady (Sharis Stables, ridden by T C Baze)- Placed fourth, in a dead heat for that spot, here in the muddy San Vicente last month, coming from behind like Brady a couple Super Bowls ago, but unlike that game against the Falcons, he couldn’t come all the way back. Interestingly, the top three runners from the San Vicente are running Saturday as well, but across the country in the Gotham. Having watched that race closely for obvious reasons, I like that Brady Is A Lady gets a little more distance here. It’s a tough assignment, but the trainer will be hoping for him to step up, like, well, Eli Manning in the two Super Bowl wins versus Brady.
#11- Soviet Warrior- Scratched
#12- Fear The Dragon- Scratched (Total amount of money spent in private sales by Mb Stables to buy these two scratches who would’ve each debuted for him: $850.000. Must be nice).
#13- War Command (Fractious, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Entering into the field thanks to Mb’s scratches is the 7th place runner from the Withers last month. He can still be considered a bit of up and comer as that race was his first race after breaking his maiden. Since he took six races to break that, it stands to reason that he needed a race at this level, first. His work times are very impressive, including a bullet over 444 horses last week, and a great mile work the week prior. Opposing trainers may be regretting that he is now part of the field. Unfortunately, as we know, it’s tough, though not impossible, to win while starting out here.
#14- Fleet Commander (Nakamura Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Took a while to break his maiden as well, needing six races, before ultimately doing so on the grass in his last start. That may be the surface where he has the brightest future in the long run, but the time is now if you think you have a shot at the KYD. I’m a little concerned with how he ran at TAM in December, but there’s been time to get better.
Prediction: 1-3-9-2
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
