The CCA Oaks – Grade I
1 1/8 Mile Dirt Stake Purse $500.000 Filly 3 Year Olds.

I often write about how hard it can be to follow HRP form and that a horse that beats another one day can be beaten the next by the same horse. It would be easy to come to the conclusion therefore that results can be somewhat random with an almost turn-taking type of result that has no rhyme or reason, however I really don’t think that is entirely the case.
We see race after race is a cobweb of form and work times that when analyzed comes out with a very narrow ability rating giving any horse on any day the chance to win. Now that isn’t entirely unlike real life but at HRP there seems to be far less variation in ability making it very hard for any horse to run the same race twice. It seems to me rather than random results what we see is a result that can be affected by three factors that have very little to do with an individual horse, because as we have said there is very little difference between individual ability in any given race.
The factors seem to come down to drawing, pace, and instructions. Now that’s not to say there aren’t any other factors, but they certainly seem to be the main drivers when determining results. This race is a classic example, Scarlett Dream had been beaten by Yow in their last two meetings but in those races, Scarlett Dream was drawn ten and eleven and Yow was drawn seven and ten. Today Scarlett Dream was drawn three and Yow drew seven. Now in races where both horses were not drawn well then, Yow came out on top but today when Scarlett Dream had a favorable draw it came out on top. So that is one possibility, Pace is another factor and that seems to be far less player-driven than it once was. Yow led the field all the way in the KYO going through six furlongs in 1.11 and 1 and yet sat back in the pack today off 1.10 and 4 whereas Scarlett Dream was further back in the KYO off the slower pace and closer to the pace on a faster pace today. The final one is instructions. Well, the effect of instructions has certainly changed this year with the responsibility moved from player to AI, but I still think they are a factor even if the AI chooses them. Today for example Scarlett Dream raced much nearer the pace than normal and Yow further back than normal, was that a factor, and was it player-led or AI-led? Well, I guess we will never know.

So, when the dust settles, we have a winner and, on the day, a deserved one. How much that tells us about who is better in the long run, though and who will be the one from this field that challenges for the BC title I am not sure. But for now, let’s look at how the top four went with the inevitable dead heat in there too:

1st Scarlett Dream Arindel Davis D

When things go right, things go right as this one found the perfect stalk and had just enough left to hold on by a neck after she was sent to the lead. I thought the faster pace might be her undoing as very often stalkers can be the first to weaken but she is too good for that and today she was perfectly ridden by the AI that is D Davis.
This is a deserved win for a horse that found a wide draw in both her previous grade one efforts but still ran determined efforts despite being up against it. let’s not forget this was a leading two-year-old with a grade one win and a third in the BC Juvenile so her ability has never been in doubt despite the fact that she hadn’t won as a three-year-old before today.

2nd The Hateful Eight Smokey Stover Castellano J J

Well, when it comes to the girls then, this trainer seems to be the George Clooney of HRP as they seem to just be that bit better when they are seen on his arm. This has always been a nice type and has been very consistent in lesser grade, but she showed in the Selene that she is on the upward curve and ran even better today taking ground off the winner all the way to the line. Drawn 8, she had to do more which may have been a telling factor and I suspect some black type on her record is not far away.

3rd Snake Island Night Mare Racing Garcia Mar

The wide draw speed push helped her set up a decent early break on the field, but it looked like the speed she had to cover the first half mile in may have been her undoing at the end. Leaders don’t weaken like they used to, though, and she kept going all the way to the line to hold on to a game third. She had beaten Scarlett Dream in the KYO with a bad draw but couldn’t make the lead that day off a slower pace so it seems that different tactics were employed today, and they served her pretty well even if she couldn’t confirm that running.

4th= Celine D J C Racing Stables Carmouche K

Of course, there had to be a dead heat and today it was for fourth. She took option B from the wide draw and went way, way back early on pretty much resigning her to a closing fourth or fifth and sure enough that is what happened.

4th= Queen Evade Party Maxmillion Farm Bocachica A

Another that was chosen to go way, way back by the wide draw, she too was resigned to a closing fourth or fifth and the script was followed perfectly as she dead heated for fourth. When she gets a decent draw and therefore the AI puts her closer in the early stages, she will win a good race.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES