The MTH Oaks – Grade III
1 1/16 Mile Dirt Stake Purse $200.000 Filly 3 Year Olds.
When you are someone that has to report on ‘form’ it can often be hard trying to make sense of results and placings at HRP without the normal information you may glean from a day at the real life track. Take this result as an example and two horses that ran two very different races in the month of July.
Back on the 7th Wow ran a brave neck second in the IND Oaks in a time of 1.41 and 4. The early pace was slower than today but she rated in about the same position in transit as this race. That day she tried all the way to the line finishing just under a length in front of Secret Eyes who also ran in a very similar position throughout as she did on today’s faster pace.
Today however Secret Eyes won by a length and Wow ran a six length sixth in a final time of 1.41 and 3, just faster than the IND oaks..
So how do we read this result? As we know there are no injuries at HRP, no easing up if a horse is beaten and i can’t believe either trainer messed up their meters to such an extent that it changed the result so much.
So what are we left with? Well three things really, firstly Wow is a sprinter and only managed to run so close in the IND Oaks because the slower early pace didn’t test her stamina. On the other hand Secret Eyes is a router and couldn’t keep up at the end of a slowly run race when the horses started to sprint. Today’s race was quicker so maybe Secret Eyes stamina came out at the end and Wow ran out of stamina. Secondly there is the space between races, maybe Wow doesn’t like her races too close and Secret Eyes does. And finally there is the track and the jockey, maybe the different track and jockeys made the difference?
It could of course be any of those or all of them, or of course it could be some other unforeseen algorithm but one thing is for sure it really isn’t as easy as talking to the trainer or ringing the vet to find out what went wrong.
Here is how they finished in the MTH Oaks:
1st Secret Eyes Arindel Ferrer J C
We knew this filly had ability and class, there are no grade one winners that can win those races without that trait but this season has been a difficult one for her and her progress looked to have come to a stuttering halt. Today however she came back to her very best always traveling strongly and running out a fairly convincing one length winner. Your guess is as good as mine as to why she chose today but we can safely say she is back and with this win she may just build on her campaign and get back into the BC picture.
2nd Illusive Motives Smokey Stover Corrales G
I thought she may be able to pull this off after such a great run against the colts last time but it seems the colts aren’t as far in front of the fillies this year as they have been in the past and she came up short running on late but never really threatening the winner. This is a tough and consistent filly though and i am sure there is a good win to come for her this season.
3rd Soviet Sensation Mb Stables Sanchez M J
The outside gate proved her undoing today as even the experience of her trainer could not negate the outside gate. It looked a lot like the old race engine as she fell back out of the gate and hunted for the rail and really once she did that her chances of winning had gone. We know however she is very good and she finished like a train to grab third however she never looked like reaching the first two.
4th Gracie G Alydar Stables Castillo I
Once one of the best maidens in the game after she finally won a race after cashing cheques in two grade ones she looks to have actually taken a step backwards. Beaten four lengths today the furthest she has ever been beaten she stalked the lead and feel away very tamely to be a tired fourth. I am not sure why she ran like this today but she had every chance and considering she has only just won her maiden this wasn’t a bad effort.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
