The Palm Beach Stakes (Grade 3)- $150.000 Purse
GP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Turf
February 27, 2016
This Saturday will mark the 13th running of The Palm Beach Stakes, which is an opportunity for three year olds that have taking a liking to the grass and going long to showcase their talents. It is just the second time it has been run at this distance, having been at a mile and an eighth up until last year. A win in this race could lead to bigger graded events on the grass for the victor, but it could also do what we saw with last year’s winner, You Big Freak and his trainer Hawaiian Shirt Guy. After winning the Palm Beach Stakes, You Big Freak was moved off the grass and onto the KYD trail, with an entry in the FL Derby. While he did not perform well enough in the FL Derby to make any TC races, Hawaiian Shirt Guy, for the most part, kept on the dirt, and he would win the $500.000 Grade 2 Stephens and $500.000 Grade 2 Dwyer that year. Those wins sent him to the BC Dirt Mile. This year, we have a strong field of eleven, including a few BC Juvenile Turf runners, so expect a good race. Here is our field!
#1- Snowy Summit (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by R A Baze)- This three year old gelding by Kimbo Slice will making the sixth start of his career, and so far he has only two wins to show for it. In September, Snowy Summit made his turf debut in a tough way, going to the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at WO, and would finish ninth. He has had a couple months off now to rest since finishing second in an optional claimer as he heads into the race. It looks as though he going to have be a little bit better then he has been in order to have a chance against a few of those he is up against today.
#2- Drunken Skunk (Boomtown, ridden by P Lopez)- On the last day of January, this Take A Million gelding ran an impressive race in an N1X allowance at FG. He won that day, and finished just two tenths off the track record for the distance (which by the way, is the same distance being run today), earning a 96 SRF. In that race, he was over a full second better then he was in his previous race. He wore a shadow roll for the first time in that race, and you have to wonder how large a part that may have played. Drunken Skunk’s entry here is likely all about that allowance at FG. Can he duplicate that performance again? If so, then he can absolutely end up in the winners circle. The last time he worked publicly was in mid December, and it was a nice work, but it also proceeded the race prior to the N1X allowance. It’d have been nice to see a public work after the allowance to have stronger confidence.
#3- Pump Action Shotgun (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by R J Albrarado)- A promising colt by Steel Joint that has won three of seven career starts, with three additional second place runs. Most recently, he was seen going just under a mile in the Grade 3 Dania Beach at GP, and if he didn’t have to run into the great Compress in that race, it would have been him scoring the victory. Another one of his second place races, the $75.000 Sunday Silence back in September, it was eventual BC Juvenile Turf winning Icicle Dawn that won the race. Therefore, if he hadn’t run into those monsters, he could have five wins in seven starts. He’s running into a strong field again here, but Compress has other plans this spring and Icicle Dawn isn’t here; so with that, what is here is beatable to him. Pump Action Shotgun really seems to be due for a big win of his own, and while there will be bigger races later in the year, this is a starting point for that, for sure. He is my top pick.
#4- Know How Skeleton (Chili King Stables, ridden by E S Prado)- You can’t have a graded stake on the grass without arguably the best trainer in the game at these type of races, and Know How Skeleton gives Chili King a chance to win his first Palm Beach Stakes. He is a little unheralded in comparison to the others, spending much of his 2015 season waiting until longer turf races would appear on the schedule. After scoring that maiden win eventually, he raced in the Grade 3 Bourbon at KEE, but could only finish 7th. That October race led to about three months off, and he came back well and won an optional claimer on soft SA turf in January. Off of that, here he is. Know How Skeleton does not have recent mile works to go by in order to generate more confidence in him here. He looks like a contender, but not quite hit the board here.
#5- Malibu Run (Barcelona Farms, ridden by J Bravo)- With this three year old gelding, we get to the first of those who ran in the BC Juvenile Turf at KEE, where he finished seventh. That race put an end to an undefeated streak as he had won the first four races of his career, including the $60.000 Tyro Stakes at MTH and the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at BEL in late September. He has not raced since the BC, so a decision will have to be made by bettors as to whether or not Malibu Run will need a race before returning to his best form after a layoff of about four months. Recent works seem to be in line with where they were prior to the BC. If this field wasn’t as strong as it is, I would not be as concerned with the layoff. Since it is, I’ll get back to him in his next race.
#6- King Chuck (Gdp Inc, ridden by M E Smith)- Off of a good second place run in an N1X allowance right here at GP, where he was beaten by a stablemate in a photo, then a strong work here earlier in February, King Chuck will be making his stake debut. So far, the Beauty King gelding has won just his maiden race, but there is a lot of promise with him, and it is understood why the trainer has entered him here. Perhaps, he was hoping there was not as many BC Juvenile Turf runners in the field. Like Malibu Run, I like what King Chuck has to offer in future races, but on Saturday, I have to look elsewhere.
#7- Vim (Blushing Meadows, ridden by E Trujillo)- This three year old gelding only missed being a BC Champion by a length, a race in which he finished third. Like Mailbu Run, he raced in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes in late September, and also won that race. Yes, the two of them finished in a dead heat en route to the BC Juvenile Turf at KEE a month later. Unlike Malibu Run, Vim was not undefeated before that race, but still had some very nice performances prior, including a third place run in the ON Juvenile Turf. Having said all of that, if you are going to be concerned about the layoff with Malibu Run, you also have to be concerned about it with Vim. He’s had just one public work in 2016, coming in early January. It’ll be interesting to see who wins out between he and Malibu Run, but I cannot make either my pick.
#8- Grande Sournoise (Drabfantasy, ridden by R Bejarano)– The always patient trainer enters this beautifully bred Sneaky Little Pirate colt into the field for just the third race of his career. Both have been maiden races, and if you combine the field sizes of the races, you won’t reach the total amount of horses in this field. His debut was a disappointment, but that can happen from time to time in our virtual world. In his second race, he convincingly defeated four rivals to earn a win just a few days before Thanksgiving. So even with Grande Sournoise, we have to talk about a layoff, as his will be three months. In addition to that, he will be surrounded by a level of talent in this field that he has never come close to seeing before. Having said all that though, it has to be mentioned the trainer has done this kind of thing before, and there may be no one better in the game at making this kind of placement be successful. I will be looking elsewhere, but a win here would certainly add to Drabfantasy’s reputation for success in doing this.
#9- Fear The Feathers (Our Athletes, ridden by J R Leparoux)- Back in early October, Fear The Feathers scored a huge win, taking the always competitive Grade 3 Bourbon at KEE, defeating the likes of Pump Action Shotgun and Know How Skeleton in the process, among other talented turf stars. That win sent him to the BC Juvenile Turf, but that race proved to be a disappointment. He set the early fractions in that race, but in the stretch the Cherokee Sunset colt would not be able to hold off much of the field. After a couple of months off, the trainer gave Fear The Feathers the race that I wish a couple others in this field would have had. It was only a third place run in an optional claimer at SA at the end of January, though there is no shame in losing to the two that beat him that day. It was a good test for him, and will serve to clear out any cobwebs and have him undeniably ready to run here. Still though, he’s going to have to find a way not to disappear in the stretch here and perhaps have a trip as he did in the Bourbon.
#10- Underpaid Jockeys (Night Rider Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This three year old gelding has taken a different path to the race as has a few of his rivals today. While a few were contending for, and running in the BC Juvenile Turf, Underpaid Jockeys was running in high level claiming races in the fall last year. It was a race about a week prior to BC Day, at BEL, where he took a $50.000 claimer in impressive fashion that led to the advancement of his career. While others have been having a layoff, Underpaid Jockeys then went to DMR for the Grade 3 DeMille Stakes, run at a mile on the grass, and earned a 100 SRF for his win. The trainer tried the TC trail after that with a run in the Jerome that didn’t pan out, but figures to be strong in his return to the turf. You also have to believe that the trainer has always felt good about this horse and wants him to be successful to a high degree. He’s not my top choice, but he is a strong contender.
#11- Arrowhead (Spongebob, ridden by J J Castellano)- On the outside, we have the winner of the always tough Grade 2 Summer Stakes at WO. In that win, he made a powerful closing bid, being ninth and five lengths off the lead with just two furlongs to go, to get up in time for the win. An effort like that does erase a lot of concerns about his ability to handle the outside post. After a sixth place run in the BC Juvenile Turf, Arrowhead got about three months off and returned in late January to the $100.000 Kittens Joy here at GP, and was 11th out of twelve. Maybe he just needed the race. Maybe the fact that he carried 127 pounds, six pounds more then pretty much everyone else in the field, was the reason for that. Neither of those things are a concern here, and he recently worked very well here on the 18th of this month. Also there seemed to be a considerable tactical change made for the Kittens Joy that might just not have panned out. I like him as a big threat here, and to have a good bounce back race.
Prediction: 3-9-10-11
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
