09/02 The Hopeful – Grade I
AR Race #12 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $350.000 For Two Year Olds.

There is some talent in this field but overall only six starters in what is basically a win and you’re in grade one for the BC is a pretty disappointing turn out. Here’s how they line up:

1 Hollywood Pinnacle Estero Farms Van Dyke D

This one was a good maiden winner before being sent to a $50 claimer in his next start. That decision proved to be a good one as he was well beaten in seventh place but Estero Farms saw something before the race and put in the claim and carries that confidence into this grade one hoping for a huge turn round in form. The works suggest this one is a lot better than that claiming performance and the new trainer took the gamble on gelding him and there has been further improvement in his work times so this may be a bit of a dark horse in this race. He will have to do no work for the rail and i wouldnt be writing off his chances in an even contest.

2 High One Gdp Inc Bejarano R

You have to take unbeaten horses very seriously especially when one of those wins was in the grade three Sanford. He only just got home by a nose that day but forced the pace and was very strong through the middle so it was no surprise that he was floundering at the end. A 1.37 and 1 mile work after that race says he will get this seven furlongs and with Bejarano up from the perfect draw you would have to put this one in as favorite to win.

3 Fancy This Mb Stables Franco M

Won on debut and has been placed in four black type events since making him one of the most experienced in the field. After weakening off the pace to be third in the Bashford Manor his trainer decided to geld him and he looked much stronger at the end of the SAR Special when getting beaten just a head into second. That form is very good but i do worry about the bridesmaid effect as he has looked a little unwilling in a tight finish in the past.

4 Sail Away Mb Stables Velazquez J R

Considering how hard he has had it from the draw monster he has a very good record and looks like he may be the stronger entry from the stable although there isnt much in it. Drawn wide in the Tremont he got home really strongly after being taken back to out finish his stable mate Fancy This by a head a performance that made him favorite for the Sanford in his last start. Again drawn wide and again taken back he very nearly did the same failing by just a nose to catch High One. A smaller field will help him here and the extra furlong looks to be in his favor so there are plenty of good reason he could win this race and get his revenge.

5 Fortaleza Arindel Alvarado J

Looking at this ones form you would give him zero chance and even expect him to be last by some way…..however this is HRP and there are a couple of other factors which certainly trump form. Claimed for just six dollars in a tiny race at FE he was plumped straight into a black type race for his next start and did very well considering his humble claiming win to be fifth beaten just two lengths. Still nothing to give him much of a chance but then you check out his works and realise that in HRP land this horse has every chance of an upset. A 58 flat and a 1.10 and 4 work are as good if not better than most of these and whilst it would still be a strange win it would be a long way from the realms of HRP impossibility.

6 Dragster D J C Racing Stables Wilson E J

Another good worker he isnt far from these but the wide draw may just make it too tough for him to turn round the Bashford Manor and SAR Special form. He had a rotten draw in the SAR Special and actually did very well considering his trip to be fourth beaten under a length. On that form and with a better draw you would give him a big chance but he will need a little luck not to have his chances scuppered by the wide draw AI here.

SUMMARY

A disappointing sized field but as usual a very close one with even the $6 claimer looking to have a chance. On form you would have to go with Sail Away and High One but in reality or should i say HRP land anything could win.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES