PA Derby – Grade I (P8)
PRX Race #20 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Walk Em Down Mb Stables Geroux F 122 —
You can understand this small field for a $1,000.000 prize when you see the first two entries for this race because there aren’t many owners that have the sort of horse that can compete in these big ticket three-year-old races. I was unconvinced that this horse was among the ‘greats’ of the Mb empire right up to his last run when he made it three in a row with a dominant display in the Travers. I was probably being too harsh but the memory of his flop in the KYD just wouldn’t go away even after he won the Preakness and The Dandy. We are so used to seeing good horses come with storming late runs but never quite make it that I was unconvinced with his barnstorming late running style that he could string victories together. Well after his brilliant win in the Travers I can safely say that I am now a Walk Em Down fan but still there is still that nagging doubt that he can extricate himself from the rail draw and find the line at the right time.
There is no doubt he is the best, most accomplished horse in this race and because of that I will pick him to win, and I hope he does but if I were one of his rivals, I would be looking to control the pace in this small field and catch him flat footed on the turn. Having said that, this is HRP, he could just turn into a front runner and make all taking all my doubts along with it.
2 Blazing Maxmillion Farm Dominguez Jo 122 —
Back to what is his trip, I feel that if he is going to beat Walk Em Down it will be in this race. In contrast to Walk Em Down, he ran well in the KYD ending up fifth and beating the likely favorite but then found that runner too good in the Travers last time, He was brilliant in the Haskell over the nine furlongs but has looked to struggle a little over ten, so as I said, this is his best trip and just maybe he can make it two one in his favor today.
3 Derby Dreams TwinTowersRacing Smith M E 122 —
You would look at the pair inside him and say he is fighting for third but with a small field this is likely to be a tactical race and there is no-one better at finding a way to win when it looks most unlikely than TwinTowersRacing. In fairness to this horse, he hasn’t run a bad race for a while, he made all for an easy win in the TX Derby and then ran well to be second in both the IND Derby and the WV Derby. An on pacer he may just get a soft lead and if the AI gets it right, he may just slip them on the turn.
4 Doc Rivers D J C Racing Stables Pennington F 122 —
Looked a real prospect when he won the LA Derby, but flopped in both the KYD and the BEL. The trainer stuck by him through and brought him back for the Haskell where he ran up to his best to be second to Blazing. Make no mistakes this is a good horse and would be a worthy winner even though he does look to be fighting for third on form.
5 Edward The Good Fractious Beschizza A 122 —
The big mistake here would be looking at the first two and ignoring the Fractious runner and this one has been in great form and could well upset the apple cart. A game winner of the IND Derby and a far more impressive winner of the WV Derby, he looks to be improving at the right time and that could spell trouble for the favorites. His last work of 1.10 flat is crazy good for a three-year-old and he has looked better and better the further he has gone making this trip perfect for him today. If there is one, I had to settle on as the biggest win chance outside the top two it is him.
6 Good Memories Mb Stables Lezcano J 122 —
The chances in this race just continue with the BEL winner Good Memories. He was beaten by Walk Em Down in the Preakness and then the Dandy, but I really liked his effort against older horses in the CT Classic last time. He probably runs his best race from the stalk, so maybe able to use the wide gate speed to slot in early behind the likely leader Derby Dreams and that will help his cause as long as he doesn’t chase too hard. The sixth winning chance in a race that looks on paper to have an obvious one-two but when you look at it is far from over.
SUMMARY
Six very good three-year-olds here, all working phenomenal times and all with a chance of winning. Walk Em Down looks to be the best on paper, but in what will be a tactical race literally anything could happen. I will say 1,2 and 5 this time but if we ran it again next week I may have a completely different choice.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
