April 15, 2016

While a $200.000 purse and a chance to race seven-furlongs, which is the same distance as the BC F&M Sprint, might be tempting for many in their division, the Grade II Distaff Handicap at AQU has never been a big draw at HRP and only six entrants have signed on for the Sunday afternoon feature. Granted, this year does bring together some of the better sprinters assembled including three stakes winners already this season but each will have to step up their game if they hope to tackle the best of their division at CD in the Grade I Humana Distaff a few weeks from now.

1-Great Spot (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

A two-time sprinting winner from five career starts, and out of a champion sire and a Grade I winning mare, Great Spot has all the right tools to become a huge stakes star but failed to show that potential against easier in the Correction over this same track and will try to use the added furlong to great effect. She is probably better suited to these longer sprints and even one-mile races and gets an inside post in a small field, which will help her settle nicely and save ground into the lane over a track that usually plays well to inside closers.

Analysis-Light weight looks to rebound from her last

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Ocala Express (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Ocala Express has been a stakes entrant in her last six starts and has two wins in that time including a score in the Rampart to close off 2015 but has seemed to enjoy going longer as of late and takes cutback in distance for the Distaff in hopes of lasting on the lead. She sat a great trip three back in the tough Santa Monica at SA but failed to menace when asked in the lane and while she is quite speedy and has posted some excellent speed ratings, she has to find that late momentum that has been lacking lately if she wants to upset her more fancied opponents.

Analysis-Needs to show more in the lane if she wants to win

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Silk Houses (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Alydar Stables)

It has been quite a while since Silk Houses won and that is not to say she is not adept at winning, but it seems like she is always charging down the lane but cannot find enough vigour to get the job done and now, moves out that extra furlong with intentions on finally getting her victory. Second or third in similar company and with plenty of recent experience over the track, she finally gets a chance to make the move she wants to and looks to loom large with a swift pace up front.

Analysis-Gets that extra furlong and might finally get up in time

Fair Odds-5/1

4-Chocolatini (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Chili King Stables)

Chocolatini was a wire-to-wire winner of the Santa Monica in complete upset fashion but then came back and flopped big time in the Inside Information and while that could have been a product of the muddy track, it still leaves a sour taste in the mouth and will have some looking elsewhere, possibly in vain. She closed sharply at BEL to finish second in the Bloom and gets a break in her weights, even if she does carry the most, and will be factor from the onset with a small field and the right trip standing between her and another solid win.

Analysis-Throw out that fiasco in the mud and you have the likely choice

Fair Odds-3/1

5-Key West Minibus (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

While Chocolatini did not handle the mud in the Inside Information that well, Key West Minibus did and now sports top two finishes in her last eight starts including a stakes win at this distance at GP. That kind of form looks quite good coming into another Grade II event and with consistency and ability over any type of surface, she has to be factored into the mix once again, even if others are more flashy or seem to be racing at bigger levels.

Analysis-Consistency is key and this filly has it in spades

Fair Odds-7/2

6-Earthly Gran (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

The most intriguing filly in the Distaff field is Earthly Gran, who has only made two career starts but has been brilliant in both, especially since her second was almost two-years after the first. Rested for her entire three-year-old campaign, it has taken extreme patience from owner Drabfantasy to bring her back and for that, the reward could be huge as she continues to improve with the longer distances.

Analysis-Cannot be overlooked after the comeback she made

Fair Odds-4/1

Overall

There are a multitude of storylines and a huge number of questions to be answered in the Grade II Distaff Handicap, not the least of which is how Chocolatini could have ran so well in the Santa Monica and then so poorly in the Inside Information. Take out the muddy track and she is the best runner in the field, even if Key West Minibus is more consistent and has finished first or second in 19 of 24 starts, and those two should be the top contenders at this distance. The biggest question, at least for many, will be Earthly Gran and how she fares in her second start after being put on the shelf for so long; long story short, if she continues to improve, the world really is her oyster as long as she stays sprinting.

Prediction

Win-Chocolatini (3/1)

Place-Key West Minibus (7/2)

Show-Earthly Gran (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES