October 29, 2015

As part of the BC program in its early years, the Grade II Marathon routinely attracted the best owners and horses going a very long 1 ½ mile distance on the main track and whomever wins the 2015 will follow in the footsteps of some of the greatest to race at HRP, including a pair of true legends from the barn of Australia Wide. Former BC Classic winner and $6,500.000 earner Little Slick set the tone in 2008 with a rousing five-length win that ranks as one of the feelgood stories in BC history while 2009 saw Shoulder Wheel win at 13-1, as part of a massive seven-race winning streak. Bozo Speed ended a repeat attempt by Shoulder Wheel at four in 2010 as one of his three Grade II wins that season and in 2011, the aforementioned winner was knocked into tenth by the might of Madhouse, who won not only the BC Dirt Mile and the BC Classic but this race in incredible fashion.

Baybayin was a solid winner in 2012 after finishing up the track in 2011 but by then, the decline in the fondness for the race had started and 2013 was its last year as part of the BC program for a $500.000 purse, when an unheralded Mister Major prevailed over longshot Spanish Showboat, with Graceful Shadow back in eighth. That effort would be telling as Graceful Shadow came back to romp last year for a reduced $200.000 purse and will try to step up big time with an entry in the BC Classic for a lot more money. Mister Major is also in the Classic field while Spanish Showboat is in the BC Mile and under the new conditions of the race, we are left with a smattering of Graded Stakes placed winners and high-level state-bred winners, all vying for a big purse in hopes of moving forward next year to race with the big boys of the Handicap division.

1-Vegas Viper (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Gelded in mid-August, Vegas Viper finally came through with a big maiden win and backed it up with a score in the Grade III Greenwood Cup at PRX and as a key predictor in the past of Marathon success, he has to be considered an off the pace threat in this full field. Prepped at KEE for this with solid workouts, and getting the inside post going three-turns, he will be sitting a nice trip inside and the only factor against him is a short stretch, which might not allow him enough room to get out and make his run.

Analysis-Grade III winner will be charging late

Fair Odds-4/1

2-Crossover (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

A top three finisher in all seven starts this year, Crossover was a gutsy winner of the Temperance Hill at BEL last time out and knows how to win at this 1 ½ mile distance, and should be sitting a better trip than his inside rival. His speed ratings are consistent and he comes from a powerful stable who knows how to win this race so look for another solid effort, and a top three placing, from a gelding who is probably just finding his best.

Analysis-Solid season could end with a big win

Fair Odds-7/2

3-Steel Kelp (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Serenity Stables)

After being claimed for $30.000, Steel Kelp tried his hand going long on both the turf and the dirt and while both were good efforts, they were not enough to win and the hope is that the extra furlongs will allow him to kick in more. The only trouble is that the fractions will be softer and unless he gets a duel, he might be too late onto the scene in a race that features many good closers.

Analysis-Needs to sprint up more than he has been on the dirt

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Russian Whisky (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Running Farms)

Former Grade II winner Russian Whisky has gone winless in six seasonal starts and although he does have a pair of runner-up finishes including one at 10-1 in the Hanshin Cup, this is a big step up in class and one that sees him as a longshot chance. He knows how to win but cannot seem to find his groove as of late and unless the return to a long distance helps, he will be faltering in the final stages against some proven marathon runners.

Analysis-Not the same horse this year

Fair Odds-25/1

5-Swiss Bank Account (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Threshold)

Swiss Bank Account has had a decent season with two wins in six starts but he has never proven himself on the main track and comes in off only a third in the DMR Derby, which does not pose well for his chances despite a turf-to-dirt angle. He stalled on the dirt the last time he was over the surface, and looks to be much quicker on the turf, and while a workout in preparation might be a bullet, he needs to translate that to the main track at least once before he can be taken seriously.

Analysis-Dirt has proven a challenge for him

Fair Odds-20/1

6-Lettucerocku (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Night Mare Racing)

Lettucerocku is a multiple Graded Stakes winner who has finished not better than fourth in any of his races this year and on form alone, will be the longest shot in the Marathon field with very little chance of challenging for the win. He has been facing easier and easier company and not finding himself close to the win and this is a tough Grade II event; all factors that will increase his odds.

Analysis-No chance

Fair Odds-50/1

7-Bold Pretender (Seven-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-RNP Stables)

A Grade I winning gelding with more than $2300.000 in lifetime earnings, Bold Pretender is clearly the class of the Marathon field and after winning the San Juan Capistrano in June, he tried to earn his right into the BC Turf but found the Read and the Sword Dancer too difficult. The drop down in class, efforts like the 2013 Whitney and his 2011 Wood Memorial, and a solid one-mile workout over the KEE dirt, give rise to the fact that he could be a factor in this race at long odds, and wouldn’t it be great if he won one for the old boys at HRP?

Analysis-Veteran has won races like this before

Fair Odds-6/1

8-Ghouls Gold (Five-year-old black horse / Owner-Eastern Equine)

After going wire-to-wire in the Grade III Cougar Handicap at DMR, Ghouls Gold tried to get into the BC Classic with efforts in the Woodward and JC Gold Cup but that last dismal effort in the slop at BEL curbed that enthusiasm and get enters the Marathon as a horse looking to regain some confidence. He is a serious frontrunner threat if he runs back to his DMR form and has the right workout pattern; add in a seriously good trainer and you have a colt who could make things tough for the closers if he gets things alone up front.

Analysis-Pace threat if he runs back to his previous form

Fair Odds-8/1

9-Contract Killer (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Diablo Diablo)

Two wins going a route of ground, and a closing second in the Birdstone at SAR, show that Contract Killer can handle the distance and possibly the class but you would have hoped to see him at least once more since August and coming off a 10-week layoff, he might be behind others in fitness and that could prove his undoing. A lack of a recent published workout is also cause for concern so back him at a price and know that he might not have the stamina to last in the final quarter-mile.

Analysis-Has not raced in a while and could lack fitness

Fair Odds-10/1

10-Wine And Dine (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Grade III Seagram Cup winner Wine And Dine is another who tried to get into the Classic with little success and after two longshot efforts, he will be another long price here with the hopes of picking up pieces late. The outside stall will not hurt him but might leave him behind tiring rivals late and it will be up to I Ortiz Jr to make the best of the trip for him if he wants to hit the board.

Analysis-Failed attempts to get to the Classic leave him here

Fair Odds-10/1

11-Greek Poet (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)

I am willing to completely toss the effort of Greek Poet in the Grade I JC Gold Cup, simply as a product of a very sloppy main track, and if you go back to his powerful wins in the Queens Plate and the Prince Of Wales, he looks to be the biggest threat for the win from an outside stall. He prepped with a decent seven-furlong workout over the track, will be sitting outside of runners down the backstretch and gets a jockey who knows the surface; all in all, not too bad for a gelding who was claimed for $50.000 and could surpass $1000.000 in seasonal earnings with a placing.

Analysis-Throw out his last and you have a legit contender

Fair Odds-3/1

Overall

Three-year-olds seem to dominant the proceedings in the Grade II Marathon at KEE on Friday afternoon and with an outside post, Greek Poet will probably get the cleanest trip of all and needs only to run down the modest fractions to score his third high-profile win of the season. Both Crossover and Vegas Viper come in off big wins against older runners going this 1 ½ mile distance and the former will be sitting closer to the pace, giving him a better shot of finding the room that the latter might be lacking in the crucial final furlongs.

Prediction

Win-Greek Poet (3/1)

Place-Crossover (7/2)

Show-Vegas Viper (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES