October 20, 2016

Routinely one of the more important races for juveniles in Canada, the Cup And Saucer Stakes has been held since 1937 and won by such luminaries as Archworth, Uttermost, Kingarvie, Canadian Champ, New Providence and Victoria Park. Other winners include Kennedy Road, Frost King, Sky Classic and Mobil while at HRP, significant winners include Canadian Triple Crown winner Stealth Fighter and BC Juvenile Turf runner-up Ihopeyourehavingfun. Unfortunately, since the race is restricted to two-year-olds foaled in Canada, it is unlikely that one of these entrants will make the BC Juvenile Turf but with $250.000 on the line, it will still be a nice payday of whomever of the six comes through with a big race.

1-A Storm Is Coming (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Having used a variety of racing styles through his five race career, A Storm Is Coming has not really found success at the N1X level and while this might be a drop into state-bred company, his last effort was not very good and will need to be improved upon greatly. The runner-up in that race came back to win a stakes event at RET so the form is decent; however, his speed ratings are lower than some and he will have to prove his closing ability to even hit the board.

Analysis-Might be best to take back a little from the inside

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Bella Moon (Two-year-old black colt / Owner-Smokey Stover)

Bella Moon almost have enough points and earnings to make the Juvenile Turf field but a victory here would go a long way and he might be able to get the job done based on his maiden win over this course and a huge third in the Bourbon at KEE a few weeks ago. He dropped back in the middle stages there but closed well late carrying two more pounds and now, gets an easier field and more importantly, a smaller field that will allow him to get into a good early position without much trouble.

Analysis-Big chance off his last at KEE

Fair Odds-2/1

3-Non Negotiable (Two-year-old black colt / Owner-Canadian Racing)

A maiden winner going six-furlongs over the dirt at WO, Non Negotiable moved to LAD for his first start on turf and closed well as the favourite, given his owner a reason to step up in class as a prep for bigger races in this division next year. Speed figures have been getting better with each race and he had a huge five-furlong workout at HAW in preparation but his regular jockey hops on a new horse and that could be a knock against him when it comes to picking the winner.

Analysis-Excellent in his turf debut but needs more closing speed

Fair Odds-5/1

4-Indiana Jones (Two-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

Indiana Jones has been slow into stride in both of his starts but closed like a good thing to win by a head and now, gets a chance to stretch his legs again with inside speed to chase and the careful handling of a very experienced jockey this year. He has never really posted the kind of speed rating needed to win this level of race but that comes with experience and of all six entrants, he is in the best position to really make a forward move and hopefully, a top three impression.

Analysis-Keeps improving and could be a contender with the right trip

Fair Odds-5/1

5-Bold Chief (Two-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Bold Chief broke his maiden at first asking but was up the track in the KY Juvenile and off a five-month layoff, will have to run the race of his life just to finish in the top half of the field. He is about 12-15 points below what will be required to win this race and would like to think that workouts are enough but at this point in the season, experience is what matters and he does not have enough of that to compete for the win.

Analysis-Huge layoff makes him a huge longshot

Fair Odds-30/1

6-Red Rum Red Rum (Two-year-old black colt / Owner-Mo Mentum Farm)

Red Rum Red Rum is the most experienced colt in the Cup And Saucer and also the only two-time winner, with a maiden score and a N2L over this same course and distance in wire-to-wire fashion. That kind of speed from the outside will be a huge asset and if he can clear to the front and set modest fractions over this wide and wonderful turf, he could be one to take the field all the way without blinkers to hinder his early momentum.

Analysis-A serious frontrunning threat from his outside stall

Fair Odds-4/1

Overall

Bella Moon is the only entrant in the Cup And Saucer Stakes to have raced at a level close to this and after finishing third in the Bourbon, looms at the logical favourite in his return to state-bred company. Red Rum Red Rum is a legitimate wire-to-wire threat after winning that same way two back over this course and should appreciate the outside post while Indiana Jones is lightly raced but talented enough to make a dent in this field if the pace is quick up front.

Prediction

Win-Bella Moon (2/1)

Place-Red Rum Red Rum (4/1)

Show-Indiana Jones (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded