February 19, 2016

Ungraded but still important in the road to the BC Sprint, the Pelican Stakes at TAM on Saturday afternoon carries a $100.000 purse and has attracted a field of six, with mostly allowance and optional claiming wins on their profiles. Both inaugural winner Marchoso and duel winner Stormy Weather were superstars in their day, with the latter setting a record for most wins that will never be matched, while recent winners like Sweeper and Soviet Lake continue to put this race on the map as an early season prep for races like the San Carlos and the Carter at AQU. While this year does not feature any giant killers, four of the six come in off wins or runner-up efforts and that could make for an interesting race with speed to the outside that could swallow up the inside runners late.

1-Charlie Brown Jr (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

The lone stakes winner in the Pelican field, regally bred Charlie Brown Jr took the Tale Of The Cat last August at more than 100-1 and he finished off the board in three starts since then, giving rise to the fact that he is not at this caliber and will be hard pressed to hit the board against this company. Two starts this year have resulted in sixth place finishes against easier competition, with lower speed ratings than his best last year, and a slow one-mile workout in preparation could see him as a longshot with speed but no late pace.

Analysis-Unable to duplicate that longshot form from 2015

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Insurrection (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Emerald Racing Inc)

Insurrection has quietly stepped up as a legitimate four-year-old sprinter with three wins and a second in his last five starts and coming off back-to-back scores at RP and GP, he moves to TAM for his first stakes test and could be formidable. 90+ speed ratings in all of his starts since a maiden score at ALB including 97-mark two back, coupled with a blistering five-furlongs over this course, signal a move in the right direction and he will be sitting nicely into the far turn before unleashing what could be a very good final kick to the wire.

Analysis-Two in a row and looks for three in a big way

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Reel Steal (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Scarletandgraystable)

Only two starts in 2015 saw Reel Steal finish third in the Grade II San Vicente and fifth in the Grade II Obrien at DMR; repeats of those efforts would be good enough to win this race but his lackluster schedule is cause for concern and he will need more off the shelf if he hopes to win. He has consistently been the best in workouts at MNR and that is always good to see but translating that form to TAM will be tougher and while he certainly is talented, you would like to see that more often before taking him at a lower price.

Analysis-Has the talent but needs the consistency

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Blind Danzing (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mm Stables)

Blind Danzing has steadily improved throughout his career with placings in three solid stakes events including the Grade III Jersey Shore but has never been able to come up with that one big effort and hopes that a win in preparation might do the trick. Winless as a three-year-old, he started off this year with a huge score over his stablemate and without that rival, he might be able to sit the golden trip outside the speed and get first run over his tougher but farther behind rival.

Analysis-Last effort over this course sets him up for a big shot here

Fair Odds-4/1

5-Enduring Class (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Riggins Racing)

Purchased back and forth after a stakes win at MNR and an allowance win at PIM, Enduring Class was put on the shelf for the last half of 2015 and comes back against tough company in the Pelican, inflating his odds in a race that he probably needs. Speed ratings are below others in the field but due to a lack of experience; that is coupled with good workouts in preparation but all at SA, which signals a ship clear across the country which might take more than necessary out of him.

Analysis-Off since June and that is cause for concern

Fair Odds-15/1

6-Whiskey Town (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Heavens Own)

Whiskey Town was good enough to start in both the TAM Derby and the Wood Memorial last year but found the distances too long and since then, has become a crack sprinter with two wins and two seconds in his last four starts. That 99-speed mark earned in the Thanksgiving Handicap was not only impressive but with a wicked final time and now, he gets an easier field and one where he can control the pace, which is a factor not to be taken lightly.

Analysis-Lone speed to the outside is dangerous

Fair Odds-2/1

Overall

Sprinter speed is always something to behold and in a race where there is usually only one speed presence, you have to take it in abundance and that is exactly the card that Whiskey Town holds in the Pelican Stakes at TAM on Saturday. Not only is he fast but he also very good and unless Insurrection can get the jump, or Blind Danzing can make a dent early, they could be running for second behind a $170.000 purchase who looks to make much more than that this year.

Prediction

Win-Whiskey Town (2/1)

Place-Insurrection (3/1)

Show-Blind Danzing (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded