October 29, 2015

The historical data has been compiled. The prep races have been run. All the contenders are here. Now, all that has to happen to around 1:32 of racing, to determine the best grass miler at HRP. That’s right; the Grade I $2,000.000 BC Mile is upon us and 14 of the best the turf has to offer have been assembled at KEE to go around two-turns for the chance at immortality. The defending champion is back, the guaranteed winners are signed on and the post positions have all been fought over. In the famous words of one well-known HRP voice…Let’s race!

1-Spanish Showboat (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Spanish Showboat gets into the BC Mile with others opting out or for other races and while he was an incredible winner of the Woodford Turf Classic at CD in May, he has never been one-mile on the turf in his career and that has to be considered a knock against him. Eight in the AP Million and a joint second in the Kentucky Cup Turf, he seems to be all over the board in terms of running style this year and despite excellent connections, cannot be considered a serious win candidate at this abbreviated distance.

Analysis-Enters by default but really is overmatched

Fair Odds-25/1

2-Tin Lizzie (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Stald Gullis)

One of the biggest upsets of the year was the Read Stakes at DMR in July, when Tin Lizzie came rocketing down the lane to win going away at more than 132-1, and he certainly backed that up with a win in the City Of Hope Mile that ranks him as a legitimate chance to upset this top-class field. Soft turf can be expected and he knows how to win over the going, plus he knows how to put together a triple-digit speed rating, and the only thing against him is an inside post, which could see him blocked in over the short final stretch at KEE.

Analysis-Will not be an upset chance like he was at DMR and SA
Fair Odds-6/1

3-Pip Cozzene (Four-year-old black gelding / Owner-Chili King Stables)

Runner-up efforts in the Grade I Kilroe Mile and Woodford Turf Classic earn Pip Cozzene his spot in the BC Mile but he was lackluster in the City Of Hope last time out, and could not win an optional claiming event at DMR before that, so the chances of him springing a Grade I upset are quite remote. He has been unable to quicken in the latter stages of his races, at a variety of different distances, and he has not had a published workout since SA so fitness could be an issue; in short, there are too many questions to back him with any confidence.

Analysis-Not in good form coming into the biggest race of the year

Fair Odds-40/1

4-Honorable Eight (Five-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Purchased back and forth all season, Honorable Eight is still a multiple Graded Stakes winner with speed ratings that rank amongst the best of anyone this year but after failing to gain ground late at DMR last time behind rivals he faces here, he might be over the top with all the changes. Consistency is important and he has not really found a solid home this year and without any recent workouts to fall back on, it is unknown as to whether he has the fitness to build upon those early season efforts.

Analysis-Did not move forward at DMR and needs more late momentum

Fair Odds-10/1

5-Son Of Ra (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

A winner of multiple Grade I events and seventh in the 2014 Mile, Son Of Ra is a former $6.250 claimer who found his way to the winner’s circle in both the Fourstardave over yielding turf and the WO Mile over firm turf and that versatility is huge, given the unpredictable conditions at KEE going into the weekend. He gets a perfect post position to stalk and pounce and ran on extremely well for third in the Maker Mark Mile over this course in the Spring so all the tools are there for him to win, with the right trip.

Analysis-Grade I winner looks to become the oldest Mile winner

Fair Odds-4/1

6-Hold The Mach (Five-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Duel Graded Stakes winner Hold The Mach seems to flourish at this one-mile distance and after running into second last time in the Shadwell Turf Mile, he will try to go one better with a similar trip behind what should be solid splits. Unfortunately, a soft turf will not be to his liking if form and workouts are any indication so take the conditions into a factor when choosing him and hope that he gets something firm or good to run on, if you hope to see his stalking ability in full effect.

Analysis-Good this season but needs a breakout effort to win

Fair Odds-8/1

7-Seven Years (Six-year-old black horse / Owner-Alydar Stables)

Last year, Seven Years became the first favourite since 2010 to win the BC Mile and did so from midpack with a powerful late run but this year has not been as productive and he seems to have lost that same vigor and kick in the final furlong, similar to the Untapable in the real-life Distaff division. He set the pace in both the Fourstardave and the WO Mile and lost to Son Of Ra; they have been battling all year long and on paper, look evenly matched with the slight edge to the inside runner based on those last two wins.

Analysis-Needs to show more enterprise to repeat his win from last year

Fair Odds-5/1

8-Sir Tom (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Brave)

Third in the Mile last year and a two-time stakes winner this season, Sir Tom has been good as an older horse but yet to come through with a breakout win against the best and looks more to be a clunk-up type than a serious win candidate. An even third in the Read and only sixth in the WO Mile, he enjoys the one-mile distance and has worked well coming in but still needs to show more in the last furlong to truly put himself amongst the best of the division.

Analysis-Seems to always be around for a piece

Fair Odds-10/1

9-Sandor Clegane (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Smithtown Stables)

Sandor Clegane has never faced anything better than Grade III company and did little over a soft turf in the Hill Prince at BEL; factors that are against him as one of the rank outsiders in the Mile field this season. He came through with a big win in the Saranac and did win against older runners back in May, albeit against much easier, and the consensus is that he will probably be a big factor as an older runner but not in this field right now.

Analysis-Will use this as an experience building event

Fair Odds-50/1

10-Iron Mann (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Iron Mann came through with the biggest win of his young career last time out in the Shadwell Turf Mile but was only seventh in the WO Mile before that and will need to put together back to back career-best efforts to earn a championship here. He looks to be adept over both firm and soft turf and actually looked decent in a three-furlong prep over the course; add to that triple-digit speed ratings in his last two and a weight break and you have a serious contender from one of the outside gates.

Analysis-Excellent last time out but needs another career effort

Fair Odds-6/1

11-Wincrea (Four-year-old black gelding / Owner-Running Farms)

To see Wincrea get as far as the BC Mile is a nice accomplishment off a $85.000 purchase but at heart, he is a single Grade III stakes winner who has failed as the favourite in his last three efforts on the grass and would not be included in the field were it not for some defections. Racing on the lead has not worked for him in recent starts and a stalking trip might be his best way of improving but he still needs to win more to show this handicapper he is for real and on paper, that will not be happening.

Analysis-Longshot sneaks in and looks overmatched

Fair Odds-50/1

12-Irish Flu (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Irish Flu has had a very hit-and-miss season with two big wins in the Arcadia and the Shoemaker Mile but also misses in the Kilroe Mile and the recent WO Mile and after racing at huge odds in his last three, he might be lower but still no where close to being the favourite. He has been solid enough over the main track in his last few attempts but really needs to step up his game over the turf and while he might have had a solid career, he has been unable to show it consistently and that is cause for concern.

Analysis-Has been a huge longshot in recent races and will be once again

Fair Odds-15/1

13-Silver Bullet (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Joseph Racing)

Take out his race at ten-furlongs and Silver Bullet has been first or second in all of his races this season and with a win in the Shoemaker Mile, coupled with runner-ups in the Maker Mark Mile and the WO Mile, he certainly knows how to handle the distance and could be a major factor despite one of the outside gates. His speed ratings have been excellent, he has been amazing in recent six-furlongs workouts and he is the only auto-generated horse in the field; all in all, the feelgood story of this BC Mile and one that could lead to a great story should he win.

Analysis-In excellent form and gets a returning jockey for this big race

Fair Odds-3/1

14-Moms Guy (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Yahudi Stables)

Since winning the Muniz Memorial Handicap back in March, Moms Guy has been unable to make any headway in tougher company and after failing at odds-on in the KD Turf Dash, he moves way up in class and unfortunately, gets saddled with a terrible post position. Speed ratings have been getting lower and he only has a single published workout since July, which make him hard to back for the win in a race loaded with talent and horses in currently good form.

Analysis-Outside post makes it even tougher to back him

Fair Odds-25/1

Overall

The Grade I BC Mile features 14 of the best colts and geldings at HRP but on paper, the top three earners in the BC Points standings rank at the top three choices to get the win and even with an outside post, Silver Bullet is my choice based on great form and more importantly, great workouts. His second to Iron Mann in the WO Mile was excellent and he is proven at the Grade I level before so look for him to sit a great outside trip and run as well as he did at KEE in the Spring, when he was the better of everyone he faces here over the soft going.

Son Of Ra and Seven Years have been battling all season long with the former taking the last two in dominant fashion, at the expense of his tiring rival, and if that form holds true, Seven Years will get out and set the pace and Son Of Ra will be charging at him late. That being said, Seven Years is the defending champion and certainly warrants respect, as does three-year-old colt Iron Mann, the best of the sophomores in the field off his win in the Shadwell Turf Mile and one who could be a factor here but really a huge chance in latter years.

Prediction

Win-Silver Bullet (3/1)

Place-Son Of Ra (4/1)

Show-Seven Years (5/1)

4th-Iron Mann (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: BC 2015-17, THE BREEDERS CUP