The Virginia Derby, scheduled for March 14, 2026, at Colonial Downs (CNL), brings together a competitive group of three-year-olds traveling 1 1/8 miles in Race 2 with a purse of $500.000. Traditionally one of the key spring races for developing sophomores, this event carries Kentucky Derby qualifying implications, giving connections a valuable opportunity to secure points toward the first Saturday in May. The race has been captured recently by several prominent operations, including Mb Stables, who won three editions between 2020 and 2025. With a full gate of developing runners, the contest appears likely to be shaped by tactical speed and late stamina over the nine-furlong distance.

1. Haggis Smoothie

Trainer/Owner: The Sidley Stud
Jockey: P. Lopez
Projected Odds: 8-1

Haggis Smoothie arrives with graded stakes experience after contesting the Lewis Stakes (G3) in early February, where he finished well behind the leaders but earned a competitive speed figure of 91. The colt previously hit the board in both the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G3), demonstrating flashes of quality against strong company. Earlier in his career he showed sprint speed in New York-bred stakes before stretching out. His record of 3 wins from 8 starts suggests ability, though his two previous attempts at longer distances resulted in off-the-board finishes. If he can settle closer to the pace than in recent graded outings, he has the pedigree to improve, but his chances hinge on proving he truly stays the 1 1/8-mile trip.

2. Lesnar

Trainer/Owner: Royalty Stables
Jockey: L. Machado
Projected Odds: 12-1

Lesnar is lightly raced but intriguing, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream Park before stepping immediately into the Sunland Derby where he showed early speed and weakened late to finish fourth. The gelding has already shown stamina with a victory at one mile and competitive effort at 1 1/16 miles, suggesting this distance is within reach. His recent workouts at Gulfstream, including a 1:10.3 six-furlong drill, indicate sharp condition. With only five lifetime starts he retains upside, though he must show he belongs with graded stakes caliber runners.

3. Firing Squad

Trainer/Owner: TwinTowersRacing
Jockey: M. Franco
Projected Odds: 15-1

Firing Squad brings solid experience with seven starts, including appearances in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Withers Stakes (G3) earlier this winter. He finished third in the Remsen at this same 1 1/8-mile distance, indicating that stamina is not an issue. However, his most recent outing in the Withers saw him fail to threaten late. Earlier he ran a strong second in allowance company after breaking his maiden at Aqueduct. While the colt has shown he can compete around two turns, he may need a career-best effort to topple the stronger contenders here.

4. Ikko Ikki

Trainer/Owner: Jerry Garcia Racing
Jockey: J. L. Ortiz
Projected Odds: 20-1

Ikko Ikki enters off a disappointing effort in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds where he finished well back. Earlier graded tries, including the Street Sense Stakes (G3), also resulted in off-the-board finishes. His lone victory came in a five-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs, and his form since then has been inconsistent as distances have increased. Though his pedigree suggests potential stamina, his past performances indicate he must significantly improve to factor in the Virginia Derby.

5. Mind Over Mane

Trainer/Owner: Mb Stables
Jockey: L. Dettori
Projected Odds: 10-1

Mind Over Mane is one of the least experienced runners in the field with only two career starts, but his runner-up effort in a one-mile turf maiden at Aqueduct showed promise. The gelding closed strongly that day and earned a respectable figure for such a lightly raced horse. Mb Stables has a strong history in this race, and the addition of Lanfranco Dettori in the saddle suggests serious intent. The question remains whether he can transition successfully from turf to dirt and handle the jump from maiden company into stakes competition.

6. West Coast Girls

Trainer/Owner: Diablo Diablo
Jockey: I. Ortiz Jr.
Projected Odds: 6-1

West Coast Girls brings one of the strongest recent performances in the field after finishing second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) over 1 1/16 miles, earning a 94 speed figure. Prior to that she captured a stakes event at the same distance in convincing fashion. Though facing males here, she has demonstrated excellent stamina and tactical positioning in route races. With two wins and a second from four starts, she enters in peak form and appears well suited to the nine-furlong trip.

7. Connect The Dots

Trainer/Owner: First Flight Stable
Jockey: T. Gaffalione
Projected Odds: 4-1

Connect The Dots has quietly built an impressive record with three wins and two seconds in five starts. His most recent victory at Tampa Bay Downs over 1 1/16 miles was visually strong as he rallied from mid-pack to win decisively. Earlier victories at Charles Town showed versatility at shorter distances. His speed figures consistently hover in the mid-90s, placing him among the fastest in this group. With continued progression and a solid work pattern leading into the race, he appears a legitimate contender.

8. Wolf Lord

Trainer/Owner: John Henry
Jockey: J. R. Velazquez
Projected Odds: 7-1

Wolf Lord is a versatile runner who has competed successfully on both turf and dirt. He won the Zuma Beach Stakes (G3) on turf last fall before finishing third in the Saratoga Special (G2) on dirt earlier in his career. In his most recent outing, he narrowly missed in an optional claiming event at Gulfstream Park. With three wins from seven starts, he possesses the class to compete here, though his best performances have come on turf. If he transfers that ability fully to dirt at this distance, he could be a major factor.

9. Colt Of Personality

Trainer/Owner: Alydar Stables
Jockey: A. Fresu
Projected Odds: 14-1

Colt Of Personality captured his maiden impressively at Santa Anita before stepping into the Southwest Stakes (G3) where he finished mid-pack after pressing the pace. That effort showed promise but also highlighted the class jump he faces here. The gelding has run competitively at distances around a mile and has tactical speed that may allow him to secure a favorable early position. However, he must prove he can finish strongly against more seasoned stakes runners.

10. Stray Cat

Trainer/Owner: Alydar Stables
Jockey: F. S. Valdez
Projected Odds: 3-1

Stray Cat appears to be peaking at the right time after winning a six-furlong stakes at Sunland Park earlier this year before finishing third in the Sunland Derby, where he closed strongly behind the leaders. His career figures have steadily improved, culminating in a 94 speed figure in his recent victory. Though most of his success has come at shorter distances, his finishing kick in longer races suggests the 1 1/8-mile trip is within reach. With improving form and competitive speed numbers, he stands out as a leading contender.

11. Liams Map

Trainer/Owner: D J C Racing Stables
Jockey: D. E. Centeno
Projected Odds: 12-1

Liams Map has faced top-level competition throughout his career, including appearances in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Hopeful Stakes (G1) as a juvenile. He later finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), demonstrating quality against elite company. However, his two starts in 2026 have been disappointing, and he must rebound sharply to threaten here. If he returns to his best juvenile form, he could be competitive at this level.

12. The Babylonian

Trainer/Owner: Nakamura Stables
Jockey: R. Bejarano
Projected Odds: 25-1

The Babylonian scored an allowance victory at Charles Town earlier this year, but the modest speed figure suggests he must improve significantly to compete with this group. Earlier races included a turf maiden victory and several competitive efforts at 1 1/16 miles, indicating some stamina. However, his form against stronger company has been inconsistent. While capable of picking up minor awards if the pace collapses, he appears to face a difficult assignment.

Projected Pace Scenario

The early pace may be set by Lesnar, Colt Of Personality, and possibly Stray Cat, all of whom have shown willingness to race near the lead. Haggis Smoothie and Wolf Lord could track just behind that group, while Connect The Dots and West Coast Girls are likely to settle mid-pack and attempt to produce a sustained run around the far turn. If the early fractions are contested, the race could favor a stalking or closing runner in the stretch.

Predicted Outcome

Stray Cat enters the Virginia Derby with improving form and competitive speed figures that match or exceed the rest of the field. His ability to finish strongly after stalking the pace makes him particularly dangerous at the nine-furlong distance. Connect The Dots and West Coast Girls appear to be the most serious challengers, each bringing consistent form and proven ability at route distances.

Projected Winner: Stray Cat.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, THE TRIPLE CROWN, Ungraded