Lewis Stakes (Grade 3) (KYD)- $150.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
February 2, 2019
There is an interesting contrast between the two KYD prep races that I will be covering this weekend: The Holy Bull and the Lewis. The Holy Bull has nearly half of the field (5 of 11) starting in the race off of a maiden win. It is truly a field of newcomers to the TC Chase. The Lewis Stakes, on the other hand, is a battle between names that already become known to the Chase. There are only two horses in this field who have not previously attempted a graded stake. (Note, I wrote this before the two scratches. Both of the also eligibles that have drawn in have also not been in a graded stake). This is interesting, considering the purse for the Holy Bull is more then double the purse of this one. The winner of the race last year was Reach For A Latte, but he never made it to the KYD. However, the winner two years ago, Positive Thinking, ended up winning the BEL. Let’s see who will win this one, and which path they take!
#1- Clutch- Scratched
#2- Argead (Smokey Stover, ridden by G Boulanger)- On the same day that Clutch was winning that SA allowance, Argead was out at GP, winning the $100.000 Mucho Macho Man, one of the more competitive ungraded stakes that you will see. It was just his second career win, but one can see improvement in the work times, especially at a mile. Agread has the look to me of a horse that will really like the eventual longer distances of the TC races, too.
#3- Whats The Big Idea (Oquinn Farm, ridden by C S Nakatani)- The big idea is the TC Chase, and this first time gelding will be looking assert himself as a factor in the division. The jury might still be out on that, as while he did run well in CA-bred stakes, I would have liked to have seen a win. He tried the Champagne, and finished in the middle of the field. His drop into the Golden Nugget, which is also a sprint, raises my eyebrow a little bit in terms of the trainer possibly not being fully confident. A geld can solve everything. Let’s see if it works!
#4- Conformity (Joshua Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- The gelding was acquired in the December auction for $275.010 after showing promise in his first six races. He’s only won one of them, but has been in the money most of the time, including running third in the Grade 3 Nashua. That was before the auction. He made his debut with Joshua in the Jerome and was rather flat. Now, with a month to figure out why that happened, the trainer hopes for better here.
#5- Not A Pretty One (Estero Farms, ridden by G Franco)- This one continues to try and follow the lead of Pretty Ferro, who was also out of Pretty One, and he looks to prove that looks don’t have to mean anything if you are fast, and it lasts. Started his career well, but then had a couple of tough graded results. Estero figured out what went wrong, and he won the $225.000 Coronation Futurity, for Canadians, in November. This is a good spot for him to land into after that race.
#6- Hymnal (Williams9, ridden by D Davis)- While we want to root for this trainer to get a KYD entry, Hymnal is going to have to step it up and prove that he belongs to be in the conversation. This doesn’t require a win here, but three of his last four starts earned him a 10, and I am not talking about a top ranking. Needs to be able to finish with the leaders, and he hasn’t been. There’s been an add change, but that’s been frequently in flux.
#7- At Your Service (Mb Stables, ridden by J Bravo)- The two runners in this field who do not have any graded stake experience each come out of this trainer’s barn. Therefore, he is still looking to prove himself, and had a good come from behind effort to finish third in a GP allowance in mid-December. With some time to work on him or for him to mature, At Your Service can build on that here and be a threat. Work times probably need to be a little better, but there has been time, and that is key.
#8- Fear The Dragon (LionKing Stables, ridden by T C Baze)- Acquired in private sales for $126.120, Fear The Dragon finally picked up a big result for his new trainer. He hadn’t been terrible, but LionKing saw to it to remove the blinkers and shadow roll before he ran in the $400.000 Springboard Mile at RP, and he ended up getting that victory. They will stay off for this race, of course. He has shown a liking to being on the lead early, so don’t be surprised if that happens again here.
#9- King Niagra (John Henry, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Team 7 Illusions had high hopes for this one, buying him for $250.000 from Serenity Stables after he won his debut, but that excitement must have worn off as John Henry only needed $50.770 to pick him up the say after he won the Grade 3 Grey Stakes. Two months ago, the LA Futurity (Grade 1) was his debut in John Henry silks, and he ran a tough third in a three way photo for the win there. Also in that photo was Golden Boy, my pick to win the Holy Bull.
#10- Not To Be Denied- Scratched
#11- Red Cup (Our Athletes, ridden by F Geroux)- This one also come out of the LA Futurity in December, and was right behind that three way photo for the win, and finished fourth. The Quench colt has proven himself to be a contender, and ran third in the BC Juvenile in the race prior. He has not been worked publicly that much, so I can’t really tell if he is showing improvement, especially while running long. I would certainly not rule him out.
#12- Entrepreneur (Mb Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- The Commanding colt is two for three for his career thus far, and that has earned him the chance to make his stake debut and take a shot at the TC trail. I’m going to assume that the one public work at a mile from earlier this month was a result of trying something that might not have entirely worked out. After all his winning time in the mud at FG was very strong. Capable of being a contender and a spoiler in this field.
#13- Zero Annuity (Nakamura Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Draws into the field thanks to the first of our two scratches. He’s unproven at the level, but has picked up wins in two out of three himself. Most recently, just before New Year’s he looked decent running a mile a sixteenth, but I would have preferred to see him do a little better then fifth there. Worked nicely on the 19th right here, and that shows why he is getting the chance. Jockey F Prat has been struggling so far this year, with just one win in 23 starts as of press time.
#14- Orange Star (Allinthegate, ridden by B Blanc)- Gets to be part of the field due to the second scratch, and he will have his work cut out for him. This is his sixth start, and his first four saw him unable to break his maiden. To accomplish this, he went to TUP, and got it done. While the winning time is decent, this is a very tough jump to be making. Not unprecedented, however.
Prediction: 2-9-5-11
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
