San Luis Rey Stakes (Grade 2)- $200.000
SA- For Four Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Half on the Turf
March 13, 2016
Some of the best distance runners on the turf get a chance to show off their talent this Sunday at SA in the 11th running of the San Luis Rey Stakes, a Grade 2 event. The race has attracted some of the best, including 2011 BC Turf champion Loooking Goood, who won in 2013. He would be the most notable past winner, but there have been several well known names who have come to have to this race, and been beaten. The great Dogma, for example, tried this race twice and came up short both times. Stealth Fighter and Ashkalani also have come up short. Last year’s running had many of the best of the time in the field, including Ashkalani, Z Jinxed One, and Stormy Kg; but it would be Titan scoring the win for D J C Racing Stables. While we only have one runner from the 2015 BC Turf in this race, this remains a star studded field, and should be a great race. After a scratch, will have six going to post, so let us look at our field.
#1- Officer Outcast (Downwind Stables, ridden by G L Stevens)- There is only a 20% chance of precipitation for this race, and that is good news for the trainer, as Officer Outcast has not been able to get away from rain lately. He’s run at this distance twice before, both coming in the fall of last year, and each with different results. In September, he would win the $600.000 KY Cup Turf (Grade 3), but a month later and in a race that went about a second faster, he was sixth in the prestigious Pattison at WO. This is not a Pattison caliber field, and hopefully the sun will be out so we can see Officer Outcast at his best. He’s due for a big one.
#2- Finding Faith (Emerald Racing Inc, ridden by M A Pedroza)- This five year old Bachata horse is currently on an impressive run of form, winning five of his last seven starts. Included in that stretch are the Grade 2 DMR Mile in August, and Grade 2 HOL Turf Cup in late November. The latter victory is particularly meaningful here since it was at twelve furlongs. He won that race in an HRP rout, by three lengths. Most recently, he was third in the always difficult CA Turf Classic, a $250.000 event for CA-breds. Though in that one he was coming on at the end, and he gets more difference in this race then he did that day. He is not quite my top choice in this field, but he is definitely one of the biggest contenders to win here.
#3- Vegas Viper- Scratched
#4- Desolation Island (Mb Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- Earnings wise, Desolation Island is the class of the field, having won over $1,800.000 over the course of his fifteen race career. Of those 15 races, eight of them have ended up in wins. No matter how you slice it, 2015 was simply an amazing year for the gelding winning five of nine, a run that included a pair of Grade 1’s: the Northern Dancer BC Turf (a 12-furlong race), and the BEL Derby Invitational. If that was not enough to impress you, he also won a Grade 2 last year, the American Turf on Derby Day at CD. This streak sent him to the BC Turf, and he is the only runner in this field that did run in that race. He did everything he could that day, but he ran into a horse that may of run the race of his life that day in Tundra Kenny, and was second. After the winner, Mb Stables actually had the next three finishing positions in that race. This year, Desolation Island raced just once, going to a SA open allowance in late January to stay fresh, and he won that event. You could say that today, Desolation Island really kicks off his 2016 season. It will be exciting to watch, and he will be the horse to beat.
#5- Steel Kelp (Serenity Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- It will be the 47th race in the career of this seven year old gelding, and he has been very consistent over the course of that time with a (46-10-13-11) record. Being entered in stakes, however, is a more recent phenomenon for him, as last May he made his stake debut in the Grade 3 American Stakes, and finished third. Later last year, he would be claimed by Serenity Stables from former trainer Pjr Farms for $30.000, and the new connections have been firm in keeping him at the graded level. He hasn’t won one yet, but with Serenity, he has two seconds and two thirds thus far. Most of those races running in his current silks have been on the main track, but he was a staple of turf racing before that. Here’s a fascinating stat for Steel Kelp: In a stretch from November 23, 2013 to January 9, 2016, he raced 22 times, and never finished out of the top three.
#6- Donnybrook (Grimley, ridden by M E Smith)- Grimley clearly had high aspirations for Donnybrook when he purchased him for $80.000 in a private sale from Luz International. Before the sale, the highest he had been placed were in high track allowances, and he had success in them. Grimley wanted more, and sent him to the Grade 3 Bradley Handicap for their first race together, and he would win the race, earning a 101 SRF in the process. He was unable to follow that up well in the Grade 2 Arcadia here at SA last month, but that race was probably just too short for him. Donnybrook has shown an interest in going long based on a result at SAR, but then at this same distance and turf at AQU he came up flat. Donnybrook is very capable of winning this race, but it just seems like a couple others are safer picks.
#7- The Machine (Guidry Jr, ridden by T C Baze)- The four year old gelding will make his stake debut in this race, after showing some promise going real long on the turf. He reeled off a streak of three straight wins going at least eleven furlongs on the grass in each race. Now, some will want to dismiss those wins and point out that the first two of them were for low claiming tags. That could be true, but the third win was in an open allowance at GP, a race in which he defeated Tundra Kenny. Yeah, that Tundra Kenny. The one that won the BC Turf last fall. That allowance was essentially a stake, given the field. Last month in his most recent race, also an open allowance, he beat Tundra Kenny again as well as the very talented Deja Steel, but would be second in the race. If he runs a time as he did in that race, he will make things very difficult for the rest of the field here. The Machine has arrived, and will be a big threat here.
Prediction:4-7-2-5
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
