September 17, 2015

The Grade III Noble Damsel Handicap brings together four very solid fillies this year, each with eyes on the biggest share of the $200.000 purse but ones for whom the Grade I BC F&M Turf is just a little bit out of reach. It proved as the final step to BC glory for both Lindsey and Majesty in its early years but the advent of bigger races around its schedule has seen it fall off the map for many of the best turf females and as such, it takes its rightful place as a solid event that will lead to races like the First Lady and the Matriarch later in the season.

1-Thirlling Baby (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

Grade I placed and a Grade III winner this year, Thirlling Baby is the highweight for the Noble Damsel but should have no problem handling it and will appreciate the cutback to a flat-mile, which served her well at WO earlier this season. Her speed ratings declined last time out when lackluster in the Grade II Mabee but she is solid on her best form and should be able to press the early fractions; something that will help her in this small field.

Analysis-Has the class but needs her best

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Fashion Lane (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Smithtown Stables)

First or second in 10 of 11 starts as a three-year-old, Fashion Lane has found things a little tougher as an older filly but could get some redemption with a win here, especially over a course that served her well when she won the Beaugay in May. Second in the Penny Memorial but a tiring fourth as the choice in the Ballston Handicap, she should appreciate a reasonable weight and the chance to stretch out on the lead, which her only crutch being the potential of early pressure when might weaken her down the lane.

Analysis-Returns to a track she likes in hopes of finding her form

Fair Odds-4/1

3-Summer Storm (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Barcelona Farms)

Summer Storm has been on a tear all the way up the ranks since being claimed for a scant $15.000 at FG in the Winter and has a chance to finally make the big times off a huge win in the Solana Beach at DMR against state-bred company. Adept on dirt or turf, going short or this one-mile distance, she seems to keep finding the right spots and with slightly less weight than her main rivals, she has to be considered the favourite to step up once again and prove her might under a very able jockey.

Analysis-Has won four in a row and looks the picture of might and power

Fair Odds-2/1

4-Ubet Sheza Queen (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Ubetracing.com)

The only three-year-old in the field, Ubet Sheza Queen has won two straight on the grass against older rivals but under the handicap conditions here, does not get a huge weight break like her last starts and that could prove the difference at this level. Preparations at PEN have been solid as usual and she has never been worse than second on the turf but this field is quite good and she will rank outside the top three for me, with the hope that she can use this to build on a big rest of her season.

Analysis-Has done well on the turf but never at this level
Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

Summer Storm rides a huge winning streak into the Grade III Noble Damsel and while others in the small field have experience at this level, the current form of the favourite cannot be overlooked and she should be able to run away from this field and use it as a stepping stone to Grade I success. Fashion Lane returns to the site of her biggest win this season so she should be a solid second choice while Thirlling Baby is the top weight in the field and might have enough to close for a small share in the final furlong.

Prediction

Win-Summer Storm (2/1)

Place-Fashion Lane (4/1)

Show-Thirlling Baby (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES